why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Ackman: Sarah Friar should be OpenAI CEO and Sam Altman chair
“I thought she should be CEO of OpenAI. I think Sam should be chair.”
Opinion
Ackman: Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are undervalued amid AI hype
“I think a similar thing is happening today, in a sense, to Amazon and Meta, Microsoft.”
Disclosure
Ackman: Howard Hughes will reinvest all cash flow into insurance
“What we're doing is instead of reinvesting all the cash the business generates into real estate, we're going to reinvest all the cash into insurance.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Ackman aims to build Howard Hughes from $4B to $1T market cap
“The company's got like a four billion dollar market cap, and the goal is to build it into a trillion dollar thing over time.”
Insight
Ackman: A higher stock price increases a company's underlying value
“The fascinating thing about liquidity and valuation is The higher a stock price goes, and it's gonna sound sort of intuitive, but it's not, the more valuable the company becomes. You know, there's actually the increase in value of the company increases the val…”
Opinion
Ackman: Elon Musk's army of online followers enabled Tesla to be built
“He builds an army of believers and followers that enabled Tesla to be built,”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ackman: I know almost every S&P 500 CEO directly or once removed
“I know pretty much every CEO in the S&P, either directly or one person removed”
Insight
Ackman: The best investments require no board seat or intervention
“The best investments are one where you don't need to join the board and do anything.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ackman: High-priced niche software companies face severe AI disruption risk
“I think there have been sort of monopolistic type profit taking off of customers. When someone had a kind of a niche software product, they're charging, you know, 30,000 a year or something like this. I think those companies are really at risk.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Ackman: Amazon will have to become an even bigger SpaceX customer
“Even Amazon is going to have to become an even bigger customer because they're not, you know, Blue Origins, you know”
Disclosure
Ackman: Viral March 2020 CNBC interview was intended to reach Trump
“I was concerned about the country because I felt we needed to have a, basically a two-week pause. You know, this is March of or February. I guess it was March. And I assumed we were going to just do a short-term shutdown, let the virus cool down, as hospitals …”
Disclosure
Bill Ackman discloses investments in X, xAI, and SpaceX
“I actually invested in X. I invested in XAI. I'm in an SPV. Ron Barron said, Bill, you gotta invest in SpaceX. So I, so I'm in”
Assertion Supported
Ackman: Pershing Square dollar grew 27 to 28 times over 22 years
“So if you invested a dollar in Pershing Square, you know, 22 years ago, that's, that became you know 20 I think, I should know this number. It's like 27 or 28 times net of all fees. Okay? Over, over 22 years.”