why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: New data centers will consume more power than past 50 years
“What we're talking about now are data centers that are in the next several years going to use more power than the previous 50 years on earth took.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Feldman: Cerebras chip gains will exceed 2x over next 18 months
“And my view is in the next 18 months will be way over two X.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: AI gives humanity a shot at ending cancer deaths
“There's a shot that our children, none of them, nor their people they love will die of cancer.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2030
Feldman: Small modular reactors probably won't power data centers for 3-4 years
“I think it's both the obviously the right thing to do and probably not the source of data centers for the next three or four years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Space-based data centers are 8 to 10 years away
“I think it's in the eight to 10 year category, not in the three to five.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Extreme AI demand means no silicon compute goes unused
“Look, I think there is so much demand right now that, that, There is no silicon that will go unused.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Feldman: Memory market will take 18 months to digest surge, keeping prices high
“And it will take us about 18 months to digest. The prices will stay high.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: A massive data leak is inevitable in the AI era
“I think we can also know that there will be a massive data leak.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: AI world models will provide behavioral insights by watching humans
“I think that's some of the things the world models are gonna bring us as they begin to watch human behavior.”