why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Hefets: Top 50% of US households own 99% of total wealth
“99% of wealth, ah, is owned by the top 50%, and the bottom 50% only own one percent of wealth here in the United States.”
Prediction Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2023
Hefets: US home price growth will slow in 12 to 18 months
“At some point there's gonna be enough inventory coming online, that there's going to be enough supply, and a decrease enough in demand that it will impact home prices. Now, I don't know that that's gonna be in the next six months. I actually think it's gonna b…”
Assertion Supported
Hefets: Bottom 50% of US families own zero percent of directly held stocks
“The bottom 50% Of families and household own one percent of overall equities in the market, and when you look at directly held stocks, so stocks in the stock market, they own zero percent, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Hefets: US homeowners have 75 times the average net worth of renters
“Homeowners, on average, have 75 times The net worth of a renter.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hefets: 51% of Divvy renters buy back their home after three years
“51% of Divi's customers who have come to the end of their three-year lease have been able to buy back their home.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hefets: Divvy Homes expects an all-in profit margin around 25%
“Where we're almost probably going to be at about 25% all-in profit margin.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hefets: Most US homebuilders missed Q1 construction targets by almost 60%
“I think that most builders missed their Q1 numbers of how many houses they were actually going to build by almost 60% which was mostly supply chain.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hefets: 3% mortgage rates are likely the lowest for a long time
“That is probably the lowest they're gonna be in a really, really long time.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hefets: The minimum all-in cost for a US home builder is $200,000
“The cheapest that a home builder can build a home is roughly 200,000 dollars.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hefets: Divvy Homes will deploy over $1 billion in capital in 2022
“This year alone will deploy over a billion dollars of capital.”
Assertion Supported
Hefets: US banks underwrite mortgages more conservatively than Fannie Mae requires
“When the global financial crisis happened, there were such, ah, very high fees and penalties that went for banks that didn't have really strict overlays that actually had a ton of defaults. And so now banks are super nervous To lend to people, and actually tak…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hefets: 80% of Divvy Homes transactions are female-led
“50% of our customers are people of color, and 80% of our transactions are female-led.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hefets: Housing bottomed three years after stock market in GFC
“Bottom of the stock market for the global financial crisis? 3:09 oh nine. Bottom of housing prices? June of 2012. Three years later.”