The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hefets: Top 50% of US households own 99% of total wealth
“99% of wealth, ah, is owned by the top 50%, and the bottom 50% only own one percent of wealth here in the United States.”
Hefets: US home price growth will slow in 12 to 18 months
“At some point there's gonna be enough inventory coming online, that there's going to be enough supply, and a decrease enough in demand that it will impact home prices. Now, I don't know that that's gonna be in the next six months. I actually think it's gonna b…”
Hefets: Bottom 50% of US families own zero percent of directly held stocks
“The bottom 50% Of families and household own one percent of overall equities in the market, and when you look at directly held stocks, so stocks in the stock market, they own zero percent, right?”
Hefets: US homeowners have 75 times the average net worth of renters
“Homeowners, on average, have 75 times The net worth of a renter.”
Hefets: A $10,000 home price hike disqualifies one million families from buying
“A 10,000 dollar increase in home prices means one million fewer families can own a home.”
Hefets: 51% of Divvy renters buy back their home after three years
“51% of Divi's customers who have come to the end of their three-year lease have been able to buy back their home.”
Hefets: Divvy Homes expects an all-in profit margin around 25%
“Where we're almost probably going to be at about 25% all-in profit margin.”
Hefets: Most US homebuilders missed Q1 construction targets by almost 60%
“I think that most builders missed their Q1 numbers of how many houses they were actually going to build by almost 60% which was mostly supply chain.”
Hefets: Fannie Mae takes less mortgage risk than it should in 2022 market
“Because they've been under conservatorship. So most of Fannie Mae's operations have been very dictated by the government. They're not actually taking probably the level of risk that they should in this current market.”
Hefets: Founders should never rely on investors to build their company
“First of all, I don't think you rely on investors ever. No, I don't mean that offensively. I think that some investors are great, but no one's building this company with you. I am building this company. With my employees, but ain't nobody else there with me.”
Hefets: 3% mortgage rates are likely the lowest for a long time
“That is probably the lowest they're gonna be in a really, really long time.”
Hefets: The minimum all-in cost for a US home builder is $200,000
“The cheapest that a home builder can build a home is roughly 200,000 dollars.”
Hefets: Divvy Homes will deploy over $1 billion in capital in 2022
“This year alone will deploy over a billion dollars of capital.”
Hefets: US banks underwrite mortgages more conservatively than Fannie Mae requires
“When the global financial crisis happened, there were such, ah, very high fees and penalties that went for banks that didn't have really strict overlays that actually had a ton of defaults. And so now banks are super nervous To lend to people, and actually tak…”
Hefets: Housing is last asset class to compress due to illiquidity
“Because the housing market moves so slowly compared to the equities market. And so, it is not surprising that housing is going to be the last thing that's going to actually start to compress in terms of value.”
Hefets: Divvy Homes raised a $200M preempted round from Tiger
“I'd say, so we raised a two hundred million dollar round from Tiger. It was preempted back about six months ago or maybe even nine months ago at this point.”
Hefets: Divvy Homes generates hundreds of millions in revenue, burns under $5M/month
“But now, now you have to just, now I'd say, look, Divi, we make, I don't know, we haven't probably put out there, but hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. I burn less than I don't know, five to ten million a month, so less than five million a month. We …”