The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Adena Friedman: Options differ from prediction markets via multi-price, multi-duration bets
“Options are, I think, a great reflection of a prediction market. The difference, though, is that in a prediction market, it's a binary yes, no, versus an option market, you're laying, you're layering in your bets across multiple price points and different dura…”
Friedman: Heavy skew toward passive investing creates arbitrage for active managers
“Whenever it skews towards the passive, what happens is that, that creates arbitrage opportunities for the active. If the herd really kind of starts to move the stocks in a certain direction, the active manager should step in and take advantage of that arbitrag…”
Friedman: Active managers struggle because top index companies deliver hard-to-beat returns
“It becomes very difficult to beat The index because these companies are so very hard. It's hard to find companies that deliver a better return than they do. And I think that's where active management has struggled just because they are trying to beat a benchma…”