The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,504 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 448 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath: Banning tenant credit checks will drive apartment rents higher
“If you force the owners of physical property to not be able to credit check and differentiate who they rent their apartments to, what's going to happen is rents will go up even more.”
Cuban: AI bubble won't harm average Americans, could destroy VCs
“So it's not a bubble that's going to impact most people in the room, right? Or most people across the U S but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE, right? Because they're going all in.”
Cuban: AI will not eliminate 50% of white-collar jobs
“But AI is not going to, you know, take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much it can't do that regular people need it to do.”
Sacks: Anthropic's SRO support is a stepping stone to FAA-style regulation
“However, I think this is just an opening bid for Anthropic, meaning they'll take this. Thank you very much. This is more regulation than we have today. But that won't be the end of it, right? This will just be the stepping stone to get what Dario has now calle…”
Sacks: Permission-based AI regulation will cause US to lose race to China
“But when you're talking about AI models, you're talking about replacing a system that is releasing new versions Every couple of months with one that is potentially fully under the control of government, fully government approved, everything has to be certified…”
Sacks: The US may only be months ahead of China in AI
“Kimmy K three just came out and people are saying it's now right up there. It's very, very close to the frontier. We may have months on China if that.”
Calacanis: Frontier AI platforms will absorb their startup partners' businesses
“If you partner with any of these people, they will slit your throat and take your business wholesale.”
Calacanis: Humans will no longer sort or deliver packages in 10 years
“What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy unleash Optimus inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every, let me state this very clearly, every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10…”
Chamath: California will face bankruptcy and debt restructuring within 10 years
“Then we're gonna deal with a California bankruptcy in the next 10 years, and it is unfortunately, no, and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt obligations.”
Sacks: Big Tech AI companies will censor outputs based on user profiling
“These powerful big tech companies are going to decide whether you're worthy. They're going to decide whether you're an AI have or have not. And then they're going to censor the output that you receive based on the criteria they determine when they profile you.”
Sacks predicts AI regulatory capture will create a market monopoly or duopoly
“We're going to be stuck with somewhere between one and three companies, maybe two, there'll be an AI monopoly or duopoly, and they're going to decide along with some new government agency, which will be a revolving door. To their companies, who has access to w…”
Friedberg: AI job destruction narrative is false; AI will cause a boom
“The idea that AI is going to destroy jobs is a Luddite idea that is being disproven every single day, and I see it on the ground. It is only a matter of time before people wake up to this, and they realize that this narrative that they've all been sold is a cr…”
Samani: Crypto projects focused on distributed AI training will not work
“The distributed training stuff, there's a whole bunch of people trying it. I, I'm pretty skeptical. I don't think any of it's going to work.”
Laffont: AI ecosystem revenue will hit $300B this year and double next
“We believe that it's about a hundred forty billion today. It'll be about three hundred billion this year, and it'll double in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Sacks: An FDA for AI would inevitably expand into government censorship
“If you create, say an FDA for AI, as many people are calling on, that will give government the power to approve models and therefore give notes to model developers. And very soon this definition of safety will expand because the government always takes an expa…”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Gurley: Rest of world will run on Chinese AI if open source is restricted
“Same, same exact conclusion, which is rest of the world ends up running on Chinese models. If they're able to succeed at what you just said.”
Calacanis: All cab, truck, and package sorting jobs eliminated within 10 years
“Every cab driver's losing their job. Every truck driver's losing their job in the next 10 years. Anybody sorting packages is losing a job.”
Chamath: Cities banning autonomous vehicles will face wrongful death suits
“They're going to get sued for wrongful death. When somebody runs over somebody else, and you could have implemented a solution that has a zero death rate.”
Palihapitiya: Tesla will eventually merge into Elon Musk's wider ecosystem
“I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here. And as I've told you, that will get merged in.”
Chamath: Taiwan won't be a key strategic conversation in 18 months
“We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.”
Benioff predicts China and Taiwan will reconcile
“I, I've said this for years. I don't agree with Neil Ferguson on that point. I think that this is a nonsense issue. I think China and Taiwan will reconcile.”
Chamath: Low-end SaaS market is basically finished
“I think the low end of the market is basically finished. I think there is no safe space.”
Charles Koch: US political trajectory will continue leading country 'to hell'
“I think we continue this, but we're going to hell in a basket.”
Pratt predicts he will win LA mayoral election on June 2 with 51% vote
“I keep telling people I'm gonna win on June second with 51% of the vote.”
Pratt predicts Bel Air and Hollywood Hills will burn in future wildfires
“Bel Air is going to burn. Mandeville Canyon, Sunland, Tujunga, Hollywood Hills. All these are going to burn. It's guaranteed.”
Chamath: All global operational software will be rewritten in 5-6 years
“In the next phase, it'll be machines versus machines. And so I think the nature of cyber is going to completely change. Probably in the next five or six years, there'll be so much reason to rewrite all of the software that runs the world. In one part, because …”
Sacks: AI productivity boom will not cause massive job losses
“I don't think there's going to be this huge job loss associated with this productivity boom that we're going to get.”
Palihapitiya: SaaS multiples will compress to 3x-5x free cash flow if cash flows drop off
“The problem is that if you cut everybody's cash flows off at year five or six or seven, Then all of a sudden, I think you see the natural compression to between three and five times free cashflow.”
Sacks predicts roughly 30 states will outright ban AI data centers
“Well, I think Chamath is right that the data centers become very unpopular, probably in 30 states they're just going to ban them outright.”
Calacanis predicts open-source AI will capture 90% of total LLM token usage
“I believe open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source”
Chamath: No valuable company will ever outsource production code to open source
“I would put zero, literally the probability zero. Of any important company worth anything more than a dollar, having an outsourcing their production code to an open source project. That'll never happen.”
Shapiro predicts Trump policies will cost 500,000 Pennsylvanians their healthcare
“I've got 500,000 Pennsylvanians who are going to lose their health care. I've got a 120,000 who have already lost their health care. About another 320,000 or so were likely to lose Medicaid next year. I've got 26 rural hospitals that are likely to shutter”
Sankar: World War III may have already started
“Maybe world war three is already started and 10 years from now, we'll look back and be able to perceive that.”
Friedberg: Shipping goods from the Moon will cost less than terrestrial freight
“It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed ore precious metals from the Moon to a specific point on Earth. It will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or …”
Chamath: Software sector P/E multiples will contract as AI degrades tech moats
“The tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the non-tech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all three are baking An AI technology that first and foremost will go af…”
Chamath: ChatGPT will become an essential utility consumers refuse to cancel
“And by the way, in the pandemic, remember what we saw, the two things that people refused to cancel, Was not your mortgage payment or any car payment. You were willing to go into arrears and into default. The two things that people would always keep was the ce…”
Friedberg: Moon represents a $15T to $30T annual economic opportunity
“I actually think there's probably a 15 to 30 trillion dollar a year Economic opportunity on the moon.”
Chamath: Consumer brand value will go to zero in AI era
“If I had to bet, I'm going to bet that brands go to zero. Yeah, because I think that when you can make things that are as good or better, and you can make them in a cheaper, faster, better way, people want that abundance more than they want an affiliation to a…”
Mahan: California will see MAGA-like movement if Democrats fail to deliver
“If the Democratic Party doesn't start to wake up and be more responsive to the needs of our constituents and deliver with the resources we've got, we're gonna see the pendulum swing all the way the other way, and you're going to see a MAGA-like movement happen…”
Matt Mahan predicts CA wealth tax will burden middle class, not billionaires
“The dirty secret of this proposal is that it won't be the billionaires who pay Higher taxes. It'll be middle class and working families who are left holding the bag.”
Huang: Enterprise software will get 100x more usage from AI agents
“The enterprise software industry is limited by butts and seats. It's about to get a hundred times more agents banging on those tools.”
Fetterman says a moratorium on US AI data centers benefits China
“China loves it. China loves it. Yeah, let's hand, hand AI that race over to the Chinese.”
Graham Allison: Israeli political involvement could trigger long-term U.S. backlash
“Interfering in American politics invites pushback. So I think this could have a big long-term negative effect, both in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, especially younger, under younger people.”
Emil Michael: No scenario for protracted U.S. ground war in Iran
“In terms of boots on the ground, there's no scenario where we have some protracted boots on the ground, Afghanistan, Iraq too, like scenario.”
Chamath: Slowing domestic growth makes invading Taiwan logical for China
“If you have that as a starting point, what is it in China's best interest to do? And I think it becomes obvious that the right thing to do would be to invade Taiwan.”
Chamath: AI provider employees will inevitably jeopardize customer businesses over moral subjectivity
“Because it is just a matter of time until some person inside of one of these companies goes on some lunatic moral tirade, and then jeopardizes your business against something that is nothing about law, but is everything about subjectivity.”