The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Calacanis: New York, Boston, and DC Will Ban or License Waymo
“You're going to see, I will predict it now. They're going to ban Waymo's in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 36:58 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Chamath: Waymo and Tesla will dominate autonomous market, forcing OEM consolidation
“I think that Waymo and Tesla are gonna run away with this market, and I think it's gonna force a bunch of consolidation in the traditional auto OEMs.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:24:46 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Mawakana: Waymo technology will eventually be sold in consumer cars
“We've always had as part of our strategy from the beginning that we would start with ride hailing and local delivery and that eventually we would make our technology available to automotive companies so that this, you know, at some point you'll find Waymo cars…”
Tekedra Mawakana Sep 18, 2024 ▶ 20:08 Tekedra Mawakana | All-In Summit 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Calacanis: Autonomous vehicles and robots will deliver packages to doorsteps
“Most people are incapable at this point of imagining a Waymo robo-taxi, an Uber self-driving car, and a robot getting out and bringing the packages to your doorstep. That's gonna happen.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 1:02:21 The $1/Hour Robot Is Coming: Four Industry Leaders Explain What’s Next
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