why aren't all 72 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Kalanick: Uber launched ride sharing second to Lyft in almost every US city
“In almost every city in the US other than two, Portland, Vegas, We were number two in ride sharing for this reason.”
Opinion
Kalanick: Autonomous technology is Uber's next major challenge
“They've got to figure out the autonomous thing. That's, I think that's the next big challenge to go after.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Digital ad gains shift to Google, Meta, TikTok, Amazon, and Uber
“All the gains in advertising have gone to those two firms and now TikTok obviously. And Amazon, Uber building respectable ad businesses as well. So all of that takes ads out of publications and puts it closer to the point of purchase, right?”
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis predicts consumer comfort services like DoorDash and Uber will thrive in 2024
“I'm going to go with consumer comfort services. I think as austerity measures and this, whether we have a soft landing or a recession, it's clear the consumers have spent all their money. So they're going to go for small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, s…”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Lyft and Uber report driver shortages are over
“Lyft and Uber are reporting that the driver shortages are over. They no longer have to pay people spiffs and stuff like that to get people to come back to work.”
Disclosure
Calacanis: Uber, Thumbtack, and Calm had $15M combined valuation when invested
“I invested in Uber, Thumbtack, and Calm for fifteen million dollars combined. That was their combined valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: SoftBank selling Uber stake to cover Didi losses
“SoftBank is clearing a bunch of its Uber position to cover their losses in DD.”
Assertion Partly supported
Palihapitiya: Uber CEO reported New York drivers earning $38 per hour
“Dara Korshashawi, the CEO of Uber said on the Uber earnings call last week that the average hourly rate that some drivers in New York, Uber drivers in New York were getting paid was 38 bucks an hour.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Average employee tenure is under 3.5 years at Uber, Tesla, Google
“The average tenure at Uber is 1.8 years. The average tenure at Tesla is 2.1 years. The average tenure at Google is 3.2 years.”
Assertion Supported
Kalanick: Uber private funding round cleared at $17B valuation
“It was 17, but you know, no one's counting.”
Assertion Supported
Waymo driverless rides are currently active on Uber in Austin and Atlanta
“Waymo, Waymo is working with us now in Austin and Atlanta. So in Austin and Atlanta, if you're using Uber, ah, you can be picked up, ah, with a Waymo.”
Assertion Supported
Ridesharing currently accounts for only 1% to 2% of global rides
“A little more, but it's between one and two percent.”
Disclosure
Uber has over 20 autonomous technology partners across mobility and delivery
“So we have over 20 partners across both mobility and the delivery business.”
Disclosure
Uber is an investor in Joby Aviation and will deploy its eVTOLs
“We're an investor in Joby and we are going to work with them as those vehicles become available.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Uber is an anti-tariff stock unaffected by trade tariffs
“All that matters to me is that Uber is the anti-tariff stock. It just does great. It's not impacted by tariffs.”
Assertion Supported
Travis Kalanick says Saudi Arabia invested $3.5B before the Vision Fund existed
“We did stuff with the Saudis, Before even Vision Fund existed, they stroked a three and a half billion dollar check when that was like the biggest thing that ever happened.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Uber has 150M monthly users compared to Expedia's 50M annual
“Uber has got about a hundred fifty million monthly active users. Expedia has about 45, fifty million customers a year that use the service and pay for stuff.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kalanick: Uber had around 100 to 150 PhDs solving surge pricing
“At the peak, I mean, I don't know what it is at Uber today, but it was like, I don't know, like a hundred, 150 PhDs working on this problem that we just described.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Travis Kalanick joined pricing calls for Uber's first 30 cities
“The first 30 cities, I was on that pricing call.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Uber's ad business made $350M in year one
“And then you may have noticed Uber's doing an ad business now. They did three hundred fifty million dollars in the first year of that business, a million a day, and they're projected to do a billion next year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Palihapitiya: Instacart public comps fell 50% to 70% from 2021 highs
“You know, the comps to Instacart are off anywhere between 50 and 70%. You know, takeaway is off 70%. Uber is down 60%. DoorDash was down 55%.”
Disclosure
Calacanis: Robinhood is his third biggest investment win after Uber and Calm
“It's my third biggest win. Uber, calm, and then this one.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks notes Jason Calacanis was the third or fourth investor in Uber
“Third or fourth, I think, actually.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Implied volatility on Uber stock was 14% at market close
“The implied volatility on Uber stock at the close today was 14%.”