why aren't all 164 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Twitter will issue blue checks and affiliation badges to more users
“So more and more people are going to get blue checks, and then people are going to have secondary or even tertiary badges that are basically specific to their affiliations.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Twitter's MAU grew 50% while headcount increased 7.5x
“Twitter had two hundred million MAU. They had only a thousand employees. And so clearly at that point, they knew what they were doing. And now the business has, you know, increased in MAU by call it 50% to 300 million, but the employee base increased by seven …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Twitter micropayments for news articles will be a super feature
“Having some integration there or some ability to kind of make a micro purchase to read an article is going to be I think a super feature.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: CNBC's Deirdre Bosa publicly apologized for fake Twitter layoff report
“Several of them, including, I think, Deirdre Bosa from CNBC came out and publicly apologized for that report.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Twitter was acquired at $172 per MAU versus Meta's $81
“I just sent you guys this link from this analyst and he said that Twitter was bought at 172 dollars per monthly active user compared to 81 dollars per monthly active user at Meta where they sit today.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Chamath: Senate Intelligence Committee will summon Twitter over espionage
“Well, I think it's fair to say that the Senate Intelligence Committee is going to haul Twitter and have like a closed door meeting.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter seeks to depose him in Elon Musk lawsuit
“They want to depo me too”
Disclosure
Palihapitiya says he approached Twitter as a friendly activist around 2016-2017
“Five, five or six years ago, I approached Twitter about what I would have called a friendly activist.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Musk will use public pressure on Twitter shareholders
“And I think what Elon will try to do is essentially use the public pressure that's going to build and the existing shareholders who own stock at 40 some odd dollars A chance to basically get, you know, a 20% payday by selling it to Elon for 54 bucks or 53, wha…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: More CEOs will communicate directly on Twitter in coming years
“Creates a model that a lot of other CEOs I think should and will start to follow. And I think we'll see a lot more of this kind of like Twitter going direct type of activity happening in the years ahead.”
Disclosure
Chamath: I ban my children from using major social media platforms
“My blunt force instruments are you're not allowed to have well, the ones that we've, we, they're not allowed to have TikTok, Snapchat, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Social platforms' system integrity tools have eliminated 6 billion fake accounts
“I mean, obviously they have system integrity tools to figure this out. That's, there's no way you could have eliminated six billion accounts if that wasn't true.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Twitter view count feature requires 3 million transactions per second
“It sort of requires system-wide on the order of three, three million transactions a second to actually calculate the view, to, you know, calculate and display the view count, FYI, for Twitter, Twitter global.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Elon Musk chose single-class stock over dual-class for Twitter
“If you look at Elon's Twitter deal, there is no dual class. Everybody has, there's this one class of security. This is one type of stock. So it's simple majority voting. Elon actually had the choice of doing dual class and he decided not to.”
Disclosure
Chamath evaluated an activist investment play at Twitter around 2016
“One thing is when I looked at doing an activist play at Twitter, I think I mentioned this five or six years ago.”
Disclosure
Sacks says he was never subpoenaed individually prior to Twitter litigation
“I've been maybe subpoenaed like three times in my entire career, and I've never been subpoenaed in my capacity as an individual.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter generated $625,000 in revenue per employee in 2021
“20, 21 revenue is five billion. They have 8000 employees. Back of the envelope, 625,000 dollars per employee in revenue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Twitter stock is unchanged since 2013
“First of all, the stock is basically the same price it was in December of 2013.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Jack Dorsey was Twitter's largest single shareholder at 2.3%
“The largest single shareholder in Twitter to date has been Jack Dorsey at 2.3%.”
Disclosure
Chamath Palihapitiya says he keeps no social media apps on his phone
“I brought my phone, but I don't have anything on my phone. Like I don't have Twitter. I don't have any of that stuff.”