The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 164 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Sacks: Twitter will issue blue checks and affiliation badges to more users
“So more and more people are going to get blue checks, and then people are going to have secondary or even tertiary badges that are basically specific to their affiliations.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 50:50 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Twitter's MAU grew 50% while headcount increased 7.5x
“Twitter had two hundred million MAU. They had only a thousand employees. And so clearly at that point, they knew what they were doing. And now the business has, you know, increased in MAU by call it 50% to 300 million, but the employee base increased by seven …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 1:21:18 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Twitter micropayments for news articles will be a super feature
“Having some integration there or some ability to kind of make a micro purchase to read an article is going to be I think a super feature.”
David Friedberg Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 6:22 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: CNBC's Deirdre Bosa publicly apologized for fake Twitter layoff report
“Several of them, including, I think, Deirdre Bosa from CNBC came out and publicly apologized for that report.”
David Friedberg Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 9:32 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Twitter was acquired at $172 per MAU versus Meta's $81
“I just sent you guys this link from this analyst and he said that Twitter was bought at 172 dollars per monthly active user compared to 81 dollars per monthly active user at Meta where they sit today.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 7:23 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Chamath: Senate Intelligence Committee will summon Twitter over espionage
“Well, I think it's fair to say that the Senate Intelligence Committee is going to haul Twitter and have like a closed door meeting.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 25:30 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter seeks to depose him in Elon Musk lawsuit
“They want to depo me too”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 3:44 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Disclosure
Palihapitiya says he approached Twitter as a friendly activist around 2016-2017
“Five, five or six years ago, I approached Twitter about what I would have called a friendly activist.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 10:12 E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Musk will use public pressure on Twitter shareholders
“And I think what Elon will try to do is essentially use the public pressure that's going to build and the existing shareholders who own stock at 40 some odd dollars A chance to basically get, you know, a 20% payday by selling it to Elon for 54 bucks or 53, wha…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 7:18 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: More CEOs will communicate directly on Twitter in coming years
“Creates a model that a lot of other CEOs I think should and will start to follow. And I think we'll see a lot more of this kind of like Twitter going direct type of activity happening in the years ahead.”
David Friedberg Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 50:19 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Disclosure
Chamath: I ban my children from using major social media platforms
“My blunt force instruments are you're not allowed to have well, the ones that we've, we, they're not allowed to have TikTok, Snapchat, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 1:04:22 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Social platforms' system integrity tools have eliminated 6 billion fake accounts
“I mean, obviously they have system integrity tools to figure this out. That's, there's no way you could have eliminated six billion accounts if that wasn't true.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:04:20 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Twitter view count feature requires 3 million transactions per second
“It sort of requires system-wide on the order of three, three million transactions a second to actually calculate the view, to, you know, calculate and display the view count, FYI, for Twitter, Twitter global.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:00:05 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Elon Musk chose single-class stock over dual-class for Twitter
“If you look at Elon's Twitter deal, there is no dual class. Everybody has, there's this one class of security. This is one type of stock. So it's simple majority voting. Elon actually had the choice of doing dual class and he decided not to.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 46:53 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Disclosure
Chamath evaluated an activist investment play at Twitter around 2016
“One thing is when I looked at doing an activist play at Twitter, I think I mentioned this five or six years ago.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 23:25 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Disclosure
Sacks says he was never subpoenaed individually prior to Twitter litigation
“I've been maybe subpoenaed like three times in my entire career, and I've never been subpoenaed in my capacity as an individual.”
David Sacks Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 6:41 E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter generated $625,000 in revenue per employee in 2021
“20, 21 revenue is five billion. They have 8000 employees. Back of the envelope, 625,000 dollars per employee in revenue.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 39:24 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Twitter stock is unchanged since 2013
“First of all, the stock is basically the same price it was in December of 2013.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 33:30 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Jack Dorsey was Twitter's largest single shareholder at 2.3%
“The largest single shareholder in Twitter to date has been Jack Dorsey at 2.3%.”
David Friedberg Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 47:57 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Disclosure
Chamath Palihapitiya says he keeps no social media apps on his phone
“I brought my phone, but I don't have anything on my phone. Like I don't have Twitter. I don't have any of that stuff.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 4:00 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
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