The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 1:12:39 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: TikTok or ByteDance will go public or spin out in 2024
“I'm gonna say this year that I think TikTok goes public, and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance taking, going public or tick tock spinning out and going public.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 39:55 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: TikTok will be shut down in the US, not divested
“I think it'll be shut down. I think they're getting kicked out of the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 1:24:53 E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts TikTok will be forced to divest Chinese ownership and go public
“And my runner-up is TikTok is gonna divest under duress. I think that it's going to have to go public, and the Chinese are gonna divest their interest in it and just take their chips because they're gonna be faced with the existential threat during the politic…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 49:44 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: TikTok concerns will be swept under the rug with no restrictions
“I think the sad reality is that the whole TikTok thing is going to get swept under the rug. I think there'll be no restrictions on TikTok.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 36:55 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Assertion Contradicted
Swalwell: More people watched Biden's SOTU on TikTok than anywhere else
“More people watch president Biden's state of the union address on tick tock than anywhere else.”
Eric Swalwell Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 48:46 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
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