The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath predicts Tesla and SpaceX will merge by mid-next year
“When Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things, Elon and Elon Corp. Okay. Which will happen. Probably by the end of the year, maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
Wood: Tesla stock will reach $2,600 per share in five years
“And we put out there five years. Yeah. Yeah. So and I think if he delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there. So our price target is 2600.”
Palihapitiya: Tesla will eventually merge into Elon Musk's wider ecosystem
“I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here. And as I've told you, that will get merged in.”
Calacanis: Optimus robot will dwarf all other Tesla businesses
“I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety of Tesla's other businesses.”
Calacanis: Every Tesla sold will include built-in Starlink connectivity
“So the piece there that's going to be explained probably in the next year or two is every single Tesla sold is going to have Starlink in it when they get that merger done. What that means is you're going to have wifi networks connecting any phone. To any Tesla…”
Musk: Tesla fleet will probably reach 100 million vehicles eventually
“If ultimately there's a Tesla fleet that is a hundred million vehicles which I think we probably will get to at some point a hundred million vehicle fleet”
Musk: Every car Tesla currently produces is capable of being a robotaxi
“I mean, all of the cars we make right now are capable of being a robotaxi.”
Chamath: Waymo and Tesla will dominate autonomous market, forcing OEM consolidation
“I think that Waymo and Tesla are gonna run away with this market, and I think it's gonna force a bunch of consolidation in the traditional auto OEMs.”
Palihapitiya: Nevada lithium deposit could supply 1.5M EVs by 2030
“There's a massive deposit of lithium in Nevada, Which would be enough to basically feed Tesla and another OEM, okay? So this would get probably somewhere between one and one and a half million cars, pure electric on the road by 2030.”