why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
David Friedberg predicts Stripe will execute the largest tech IPO in history
“And so Stripe's IPO could be the biggest tech IPO ever. I think they've been talking about doing a direct listing. By the way, I don't know the guys. I don't know the investors. I don't know the company. I'm not an investor. So I don't have any information wha…”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Top 100 AI startups reached $5M ARR in 24 months
“And what this is was from Stripe's report, which showed the time to get to five million of annualized revenue. And the average SAS company took 37 months. And by 20, 24, the top 100 AI companies got there in 24 months.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Stripe increased headcount from ~2,000 to ~8,000 in two years
“This is the number of employees that Stripe has. It went crazy from a little over 2000 to almost 8000. So a four X of employees in two years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Stripe seeking $2.3B by Q1 2023 at $55B valuation
“According to a leaked pitch deck Stripe implied they needed 2.3 billion in capital by the end of Q on 2023. They're working with Goldman Sachs to raise a few billion at a fifty five billion dollar valuation. That's down 42% from the peak of ninety five billion…”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath claims Shopify pays Stripe approximately $350 million annually
“If you look inside the P and L of Shopify, an enormous line item now about three hundred and fifty million bucks a year is what they're paying to stripe.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Stripe processes $2T in annual volume, exceeding PayPal's $1.7T
“And I think they're doing about two trillion a year of annual transaction volume. I think PayPal is doing 1.7”
Assertion Supported
Sam Altman and Jason Calacanis sourced Stripe and Uber for Sequoia
“You helped us with the investment in Uber. Sam Altman was in that group as well. He helped with an investment in a little company called Stripe.”
Assertion Supported
John Collison: Stripe processes over $1 trillion in annual transaction volume
“It's more than a trillion dollars a year.”
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Adyen and Stripe will process almost $2 trillion in volume
“Adyen and Stripe are gonna process two trillion dollars almost.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Substack creators retain Stripe accounts and subscribers upon leaving
“If you leave sub stack, you get to take your stripe account with you. You use your Stripe account. So now it's portable. You can go on Substack for a year, leave and keep all your subscribers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Sequoia's $517M Stripe investment is worth $10B
“Sequoia Capital has invested five hundred seventeen million in Stripe. That's currently worth about ten billion.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis details layoff percentages across Stripe, Opendoor, and Dapper Labs
“Stripe, 14% RIF, a thousand employees, Opendoor Chime, Dapper Labs, all hundreds of employees, Opendoor, the most significant, there are 550, 18%, Dapper, 22%”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Fast raised $102M Series B led by Stripe, $124M total
“Their hundred two million dollar Series B was led by Stripe in January of 2021. Company raised one hundred twenty four million dollars in total.”