why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: FCC revoked $885M Starlink award claiming insufficient internet speed
“In 2023, The FCC canceled or revoked an eight hundred eighty-five million dollar contract with the company by claiming Starlink is not capable of providing high-speed internet.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Starlink will go public in 2024
“I'm gonna go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your Starlink will go public.”
Assertion Contradicted
Musk: Starlink is the only communications network working on Ukrainian front lines
“Starlink is the fundamental communication backbone of the Ukrainian government and essential services, like first responders and that kind of thing. And, you know, it's used, we hope peacefully, relatively peacefully on the war front. It is the only thing that…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Starlink will IPO in 2023 at a $75B+ valuation
“Starlink will go public. Oh, SpaceX will cut and paste the cap table. And we will take that. Yum. Yum. It'll be yummy and delicious. And my prediction is that the Starlink valuation will be at least half of SpaceX's current private mark.”
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: SpaceX uses stablecoins to collect global Starlink payments
“The point is that a lot of companies that you would never think, so for example, SpaceX uses these stable coins.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Starlink is the only company capable of satellite rural broadband today
“Starlink is the only company that has that capability today. It's the only one that has that capability.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sachs: Starlink is faster than fixed broadband in seven major countries
“Now it's reported that Starlink is faster than the fixed broadband average in Belgium, Canada, Australia, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, and France.”
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Starlink and Tesla Bot will become real, viable products
“And so, you know, for whatever it's worth, it's like, I think Starlink's going to be a real thing. I think this is probably going to be a real thing.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Starlink generated $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating income
“Starlink did 11.4 billion in revenue last year on 50% growth with 4.4 billion in operating income.”
Assertion Supported
Musk: Starlink latency can be under 20 milliseconds
“Because unlike the geosynchronous satellites, the latency is, you know, really can be less than 20 milliseconds.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Starship launches will add over 20x more Starlink bandwidth
“So basically, SpaceX has developed a new V-III satellite that has 10 X the bandwidth of its V-II satellite. So currently the Starlink network is powered by V-II satellites They deploy them on the Falcon nine rocket, and they launch about 27 satellites per laun…”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Starlink currently has 4 million subscribers
“Starlink's apparently, I mean, I know everyone here is a shareholder in SpaceX, but Starlink's running at four million subs right now.”
Assertion Supported
Musk: SpaceX and Starlink have zero business presence in China
“SpaceX and Starlink have no business in China whatsoever. They're not allowed, you know, SpaceX doesn't launch China satellites, and Starlink is abandoned in China. So, to be clear, SpaceX, Starlink, zero business in China.”