why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Legacy software companies except Salesforce remain unprofitable
“All of the old legacy software companies, ex of Salesforce, have still not got to profitability.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Elon Musk banned Salesforce at his companies over pricing dispute
“So much so, That I don't know if you remember Elon getting into a public spat with him where he's like, Salesforce is horrible software. Get it out of the organization. He basically banned it because they came to him with the bottom up people using of Salesfor…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Salesforce expects 1,000 Agentforce customers by the end of September 2024
“And by the end of this month, we'll have more than a thousand customers on our Agent Force platform.”
Assertion Partly supported
Salesforce lost $40B market cap in worst day in 20 years
“Salesforce had its worst day in the markets in nearly 20 years on Thursday, and that's when we taped this. They lost about forty billion dollars in market cap”
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Booking.com diluted shareholders 5% over 15 years vs 25% for Salesforce
“If you look over the last 15 years, if I'm an owner of Booking.com, I was only diluted by about five percent. If I was an owner of Salesforce or Expedia, I was diluted by about 25%.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Slack's percentage growth rate inside Salesforce matched its independent growth rate
“And if you look at Slack itself, it's still growing the same percentage growth it did inside of Salesforce that it did as an independent company. So it's growing at a similar pace.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Salesforce net new ARR dropped two-thirds quarter-over-quarter in late 2022
“Basically their net new ARR that they just added in the previous quarter dropped two thirds compared to the previous quarter, but because their sales and marketing spend was the same as the previous quarter, it exploded their CAC payback, which means the amoun…”
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Yammer sold to Microsoft for 5x Salesforce's $250M acquisition offer
“Anyway, it turned out to be much better for us because we ended up selling the company for five times as much to Microsoft.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Salesforce trades below 10 times free cash flow
“Salesforce today is down nine percent. One hundred forty billion enterprise value on fifteen billion of free cash flow. This thing is trading at less than 10 times free cash flow.”
Assertion Partly supported
Benioff claims Salesforce's quarterly cash flow exceeded Coca-Cola's
“Look, I think that, you know, that the growth obviously is incredible to thirty eight billion and obviously the cash flow is incredible. You know, it's more than Coca-Cola did, I think last quarter and the margin is incredible.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Salesforce bought a retreat center to combat remote work isolation
“Salesforce just bought a retreat syndrome, and we saw this south of the city the Bay Area, and because Benioff's got a concern, I guess, that all these employees he hired over two years who've never met another Salesforce employee are getting weird and lonely,…”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Salesforce’s $27.7B Slack deal is highest SaaS acquisition price
“Salesforce in a record transaction for a SaaS company, I think it's the highest ever paid for a SaaS company, twenty seven billion dollars, 27.7 billion dollars for Slack, which has only been public for just over a year, I think.”