The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Polymarket gives 57% odds of US forces entering Iran
“Polymarket. 27% chance that U.S. Forces Enter Iran by the end of March and 57% by the end of the year.”
Palihapitiya claims Polymarket accuracy reaches 95% in final hours before events
“Basically, 89% accurate one week out, but in the final four hours, it jumps to 95, which means that if you follow the sharps along this pattern, you're going to make money.”
Coplan: Polymarket hit all-time high volume of hundreds of millions on Election Day
“I mean, today I think A couple hundred million dollars which is, you know, a lot by, I guess when you think about leveraged assets, it doesn't seem like a lot, but for prediction markets, it's probably an all time high, I guess, in history.”
Friedberg: French trader bet $45M on Donald Trump on Polymarket
“It was reported this morning that a French trader has bet forty-five million dollars on Trump on Polymarket, that he is the whale.”
Palihapitiya: Polymarket odds place Elon Musk's chance of winning at 42-43%
“It's effectively at 42 or 43% that Elon wins.”
Calacanis claims ICE invested $2B into Polymarket at $9B valuation
“ICE, a different ICE, Intercontinental Exchange, had invested two billion at a nine billion dollar post or somewhere in that range.”
Friedberg: Polymarket shows 84% chance DOGE cuts under $50B in 2025
“Poly market showing an 84% chance of less than fifty billion being cut in 2025.”
Friedberg: Polymarket accurately predicted cabinet confirmation outcomes weeks in advance
“By the way, if you look at Polymarket, Polymarket had it all right a couple of weeks ago.”
Sacks: Trump regained lead over Harris on Polymarket in August 2024
“If you look at polymarket, that is, has swung back to Trump being in the lead over the past week, as opposed to Harris.”
Calacanis: OpenAI's Polymarket odds for 2026 best model spiked above 20%
“The ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.”
Calacanis: Polymarket gives 99% odds May inflation exceeds 4.2%
“Polymarket says, 99% chance May inflation comes in at 4.2% or higher.”
Calacanis: Polymarket odds for Kimmel cancellation dropped from 80% to 1%
“Nexar and Sinclair's affiliates, they decided to not air it, and that was 60% of the market, so interesting, polymarket. Had Jimmy Kimmel canceled by September 30th. It was nearly 80% after Kimmel was suspended last week, but that's plummeted to one percent si…”