The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: OpenAI's enterprise value will fall in 2024
“I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 42:10 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk predicts OpenAI lawsuit will go to jury trial in February or March
“Yes, I believe that will go to jury trial in February or March.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 48:12 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Vast majority of AI compute offtake comes from 3 companies
“So the vast majority of the offtake commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA. Right. When you hear about the hyperscalers building all of this, you know, this computer, they're building it out to sell to the people that we you know, that we ju…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 42:29 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit will end in settlement
“My guess is, like most of these things, there'll be some sort of settlement or something here, but maybe he takes it to the mat, who knows.”
Jason Calacanis May 1, 2026 ▶ 38:24 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts OpenAI will release the full o1 model within months
“And then they'll have the actual O-one production build probably in the next couple of months, which will be probably pretty spectacular.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 24:49 Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: OpenAI defines AGI as software capable of replacing 80% of jobs
“They say it's something that can replace 80% of the jobs, but I think we all kind of know what it really is.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 39:10 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
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