The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 92 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: CoreWeave relies on Microsoft for 60% of its revenue
“They had massive revenue growth, but They have a dependency, 60% of the revenue now from Microsoft”
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Mark Pincus bought Six Degrees patents for $750K and still owns half
“Reid and I bought them because we were worried that if Yahoo at the time had gotten them, or even Friendster, that they would have blocked the whole industry, so we bought them. We paid 750 K, which was a lot then, and we were accused of being patent trolls, a…”
Chamath: Big Tech incumbents consistently win when threatened by upstarts
“And I think in, in the last 20 or 25 years, what you've seen is those companies, when their backs are against the wall, they use money, they're sharp elbowed, but the consistent thing is they've won.”
Reid Hoffman calls Satya Nadella the best public market CEO of this generation
“I think Satya is like the best public market CEO of our generation.”
Chamath: Microsoft has bundled products to kill competitors for 40 years
“Microsoft has been bundling to, bundling products to kill competitors for 40 years.”
Calacanis: Apple-Google AI deal cements alliance to counter Microsoft
“What I do think about this deal that's really interesting is it's sort of cementing the Google and the Apple Alliance against Microsoft and Microsoft has big, you know, AI ambition. So this is kind of interesting. If you lock in the duopoly of Google and Apple…”
Sacks: Microsoft would have expanded monopoly without 1990s DOJ intervention
“I think there was a substantial chance that if the government didn't step in, then Microsoft would have extended their Windows operating system monopoly.”
Chamath: Big tech giants raised under $250M total before IPOs
“Less than a quarter billion dollars.”
Chamath: Microsoft bundling Teams was anti-competitive, but not monopolistic
“I think what Microsoft did was anti-competitive, but I don't think it was monopolistic.”
Chamath names Microsoft and Alphabet as the definitive Big Tech stock winners
“I think that Microsoft and Google are far and away the winners. Far and away the winners.”
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Calacanis: Microsoft holds the largest public lead in augmented reality
“And then Microsoft already has HoloLens that they've been investing in heavily. And I think they got the biggest lead that least we publicly know about.”
Chamath: Google is the most incredible money-making machine ever created
“There is no better business in the world than Google. Single-handedly par excellence, the most incredible money-making machine that's ever been created, and a close second, as it turns out, is Microsoft.”
Chamath: DOJ feature oversight caused Microsoft to miss a compute wave
“My understanding was like Microsoft had to submit feature reviews to lawyers at the DOJ. Who would then approve, you know, updates and upgrades to their code base for things like windows. That's what caused them to miss an entire wave of compute.”
Chamath: Facebook will have to navigate Microsoft-style regulatory oversight
“And so this is the point, which is, I think, practically speaking, the beginning of what Microsoft went through, Facebook is going to have to navigate.”
Calacanis: Microsoft guaranteed data center power won't raise utility costs
“They basically said, just to catch the audience up, we guarantee you our usage of energy will not increase the cost of your utilities.”
Microsoft introduced Agent 365 to extend human identities to AI agents
“We introduced something called Agent three six five as a way to give identities. In fact, extending the identities we have for humans today and the endpoint protection we have for their compute devices to agents.”
Trump claims Big Tech is investing $320 billion in AI infrastructure
“Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all investing three hundred and twenty billion dollars or more in data centers and AI infrastructure this year.”
Calacanis: Microsoft laid off 3% of staff and plans massive sales cuts
“It looks like in related news, obviously Microsoft, we talked about the other week, let go of three percent. They're planning on massive cuts again for sales.”
Calacanis predicts Microsoft's headcount will stay flat near 225,000 to 250,000
“I think they'll have just about two 50 plus or -10%. I don't think if I could pick push as the answer, I would pick push, which is they're going to get 10% better every year with AI, 20% more efficient. Therefore, they don't need to add people, but I also don'…”
Laffont: Microsoft reported processing 100 trillion AI tokens in Q1
“And Microsoft said that in their Q-one they processed a hundred trillion tokens 50 trillion alone in March.”
Chamath: Microsoft sells horizontal systems of record that are hard to replace
“Definitely for Microsoft, is they are these very horizontal, broad, amorphous systems of record that you cannot easily replace.”
Chamath: Satya Nadella is the best CEO of 2023
“Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. I just think the gross tonnage of market cap dollars he added in 2023, plus figuring out how to close Activision, plus retaining maximum optionality with OpenAI, is just a masterclass in heads down management.”
Chamath: Microsoft has successfully closed all major acquisition attempts under Brad Smith
“When you look at the track record of his ability post this consent decree to get deals done inside of Microsoft, it's truly incredible. There is nothing that they've really tried to buy, whether it's Nuance or whether it's Mojang or whether it's GitHub. Activi…”
Friedberg: 99.9% of market value for Apple, Microsoft, and Google came post-IPO
“99.9% of their total market value. Was realized post IPO”
Calacanis: Twitter sent a legal notice to Microsoft
“It's turns out Twitter sent a letter over to Microsoft as well.”
Friedberg: Saudi Aramco made $48B net profit in a single quarter
“Saudi Aramco reported their earnings. The largest earnings ever for a company Forty-eight billion dollars of net profit in a quarter. That is more profit than Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla combined in a single quarter.”
Palihapitiya: Yammer investment returned one-third of his first fund
“Nine months later, he sells to Microsoft, And I returned a third of my first fund.”
Major stocks had turned over only 0.5x total shares since peak
“And so far in those stocks, we've only seen half of the total shares outstanding turnover since peak.”
Past market crashes saw stock turnover reach 6x total shares outstanding
“On average, it took six times their total shares outstanding for them to go from top to bottom, meaning that the shares ultimately turned over six X the total, you know, diluted shares out.”
Chamath: Facebook took a 40% valuation haircut during the 2008 crisis
“I remember we raised money from Microsoft at a 15.3 billion dollar valuation. The great financial crisis took hold and Mark to his credit reset the valuation. We were already profitable, so we didn't necessarily need to raise that money, but we, I think we rai…”
Sacks: Politicians scrutinize enterprise software far less than consumer tech
“I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that Microsoft's effectively pivoted, with the exception of this gaming, into being an enterprise software company, and the politicians just care a lot less about enterprise software.”
Palihapitiya is long Microsoft and Google, short rest of big tech
“I'm still long Microsoft and Google and short the rest of big tech, so I'm fine with it.”
Sacks: Yammer sold to Microsoft for 5x Salesforce's $250M acquisition offer
“Anyway, it turned out to be much better for us because we ended up selling the company for five times as much to Microsoft.”
Microsoft's Phi Silica AI model runs locally on Windows NPUs and GPUs
“Like today, there's a five silica model, which is completely resident using NPUs and of course using GPUs.”
Microsoft testing apprenticeship model pairing senior devs with college hires
“In fact, one of the things we're experimenting with is a different type of apprenticeship, right? Which is, you take somebody who's an IC senior dev, Have, like, a cohort of college hires working with them, because it's a new way of working.”
Sacks: SharePoint ecosystem revenue was 7x Microsoft's direct software revenue
“The revenue from the SharePoint ecosystem, meaning non-Microsoft, the consulting community, the implementers who would go into companies and implement SharePoint, I think their revenue was something like seven times greater than Microsoft's own software revenu…”
Friedberg compares revenue run rates and growth for AWS, Azure, and GCP
“AWS has a hundred twenty-four billion dollar revenue run rate. Microsoft, one hundred twenty billion, and Google Cloud, fifty four billion. But AWS, which is slightly larger than Microsoft, is only growing 17% year over year. Microsoft's 26% year over year, an…”
Calacanis: Microsoft paid $2,500 to license his book 'Angel' for AI training
“Harper's Business did a deal, or Harper's, with Microsoft, and I got paid 2500 bucks to license Angel for their model, so there are also legal routes occurring.”
Calacanis: Microsoft cut 6,000 jobs despite record corporate profits
“Microsoft announced 6000 job layoffs, about three percent of their workforce, while putting up record profits, while being an incredible cash position.”
Friedberg: Microsoft added over $1 trillion in market cap during 2023
“Despite only seeing, I think roughly eight percent top line growth, the business saw its market cap grow by over a trillion dollars, 1.7 to 2.7 trillion this year.”