The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Advanced AI models will ultimately run locally on iPhones
“Ultimately these things end up on the iPhone running locally, and you don't need to go to the cloud.”
David Friedberg Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:03:21 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: NSO Group created zero-click exploit to spy via iPhone cameras and microphones
“The Israeli spy firm NSO had apparently created a zero click exploit for the iPhone, where you could turn on the camera and the microphone and basically spy on folks completely unaware.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 59:57 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Assertion Partly supported
Thomas Lafont claims Apple reduced iPhone share of gross profit from 90% to 40%
“Over a decade ago, 90 plus percent of their gross profit was a one-time hardware sale on the iPhone. And no one thought that they would ever be able to get away from the drug of selling that one iPhone unit, right? And cut to, you know, over a decade later, it…”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 56:11 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Google pays Apple $15B annually for default iPhone search placement
“Today, Google pays Apple, fifteen billion dollars a year to be the default Search engine on iPhones on the Safari browser.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 52:16 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
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