The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Google Search will lose 10% to 15% usage in 2023
“So I think that, you know, Google could lose 10 or 15% of usage to all these other sites. And that may not make any of those sites that relevant, but it'll have a material measurable impact to Google”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 39:06 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google Search ranking relies on significant manual intervention
“And it was always the secret at Google. How did the search results get ranked? And I can tell you, it's not just a pure algorithm that there was a lot of manual intervention, a lot of manual work.”
David Friedberg Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 14:40 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg estimates a ChatGPT query costs 30 cents, 10x traditional search
“A recent estimate on running the GPT three model for chat GPT is that each result takes about 30 cents of compute. So it's about an order of magnitude higher cost to run that search result than it is to do it through a traditional search query.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 39:21 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
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