why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Russian 2016 Facebook ad impressions were an infinitesimal fraction of total
“When you actually look at the number of impressions that were created by the sum total of all of the so, the so-called disinformation of all these ads, It is a fractionally small, infinitesimal drop in the ocean compared to the total number impressions on Face…”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied Vatican on AI encyclical
“The folks at Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied the Vatican on April, 29th to soften the language in his missive.”
Prediction Held up
Bannister: 2025 leaks will reveal government coerced Zuckerberg into censoring Meta
“And after January, we're going to find out some interesting stuff and we'll get to the bottom of, you know, how did the government pressure him to censor things? And I think he's getting in front of that because it is going to come out. And I think that is a h…”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta made explicit internal decisions to violate copyright for AI
“That article didn't just point the finger at Google. It pointed the finger at Meta where there were explicit decisions to say, yeah, no, let's just violate the copyright.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter and Facebook did not know if laptop story was hacked
“Twitter and Facebook did not know.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta spent more on Reality Labs than Apple spent building iPhone
“Look, Tesla's reinventing an entire category, trillions of dollars of energy generation and transportation, but they did it on in one year of meta reality lab spend. Apple reinvented an entire compute platform on one quarter of Meta's Reality Lab spend.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Leaked memo shows Facebook projected 45% US teen drop
“Well, they're losing young people at an extraordinary rate on Facebook. US teenagers were projected to decrease by 45% over the next two years.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Apple ad revenue is surging while iOS privacy hobbles Facebook
“For example, this Apple, you know, ad revenue business, I think is climbing by billions of dollars while Facebook's core business is being affected by the cookie tracking policy change on Apple iOS.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta spent $15B to buy 49% of Scale AI
“They just spent fifteen billion to buy 49% of scale AI.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta is about to launch a standalone app competing with ChatGPT
“And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPT and Grok, yeah. A standalone app.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Facebook and Apple are actively open-sourcing AI models
“By the way, that's what Facebook and Apple are doing right now.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Facebook and LinkedIn will block ChatGPT from accessing their data
“Somebody like Facebook, when they release their language model, which they're about to, is not going to allow ChatGPT to have any access to the Facebook corpus of data. And then LinkedIn will do the same. They'll block any access to ChatGPT to their data.”
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts Amazon will face Facebook-level antitrust scrutiny within 5-10 years
“Amazon today I don't think is at risk just because its end market is so big, but I think within five or 10 years it definitely will be looked at through the same lens as Facebook and Google and actually just those two.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Meta faces over $1T in addiction lawsuits after $6M LA verdict
“Look at what's happening to Meta right now. They're getting sued because supposedly their product led to social media addiction and they're being sued for over a trillion dollars right now. And this comes on the heel of them losing a six million dollar jury tr…”
Assertion Supported
Cuban: Tech leaders like Google and Meta are borrowing billions
“What's happening now is the market leaders, Google, et cetera, Meta, they're borrowing hundreds of millions, billions of dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Headcounts at Meta, Uber, and Amazon have dropped from peak levels
“You know, Meta peaked at 86,000 employees now at 75. Uber at 33, now at 31. And Amazon, where you would think you'd have a lot of growth here they're at, they peaked at 1.6 and now they're down at 1.55.”
Assertion Supported
Trump claims Big Tech is investing $320 billion in AI infrastructure
“Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all investing three hundred and twenty billion dollars or more in data centers and AI infrastructure this year.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Broadcom is a $1.12T business that receives little attention
“Is that it is the only trillion dollar company that nobody talks about. Everybody knows Nvidia. Everybody knows Amazon Meta, but Broadcom is a 1.12 trillion dollar business.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Twitter was acquired at $172 per MAU versus Meta's $81
“I just sent you guys this link from this analyst and he said that Twitter was bought at 172 dollars per monthly active user compared to 81 dollars per monthly active user at Meta where they sit today.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: A 20% Meta layoff merely resets headcount expenses to 2021 levels
“A 20% RIF At Meta would literally only take them back to where their personnel expense was in 2021.”
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Meta will inevitably adopt the operational cost discipline of its peers
“The only big four horsemen that hasn't really gotten the script yet is meta, but they will, it's just, we're just debating when.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Saudi Aramco made $48B net profit in a single quarter
“Saudi Aramco reported their earnings. The largest earnings ever for a company Forty-eight billion dollars of net profit in a quarter. That is more profit than Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla combined in a single quarter.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Social platforms' system integrity tools have eliminated 6 billion fake accounts
“I mean, obviously they have system integrity tools to figure this out. That's, there's no way you could have eliminated six billion accounts if that wasn't true.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta attempted to acquire Manus for $2.5 billion
“Well, if you just look at what Facebook tried to do, they tried to buy Manus for two and a half billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Meta hit $14B Q4 profit after 22% headcount reduction
“Reduction in headcount, 22% year over year from 86,000 to 67,000 the last quarter for Meta. And their quarterly profits have increased to an all-time high of fourteen billion dollars. That's profits folks in Q four for Meta. All-time high for the stock price, …”
Assertion Supported
JCal: Seven tech stocks drive most of 2023 stock market gains
“Seven stocks make up the mo- most of the gains this year. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Apple spent $396B on share buybacks while Meta spent $100B
“They've spent three hundred and ninety six billion dollars since 2016 to buy back stock. In the same time, Facebook has spent almost a hundred billion.”
Assertion Supported
Jason: Facebook funds its Oversight Board with $120M–$130M over six years
“They are funded by Facebook with 120 or one hundred thirty million dollars over the next six years. So they're getting like twenty million dollars a year to run this.”