The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Meta's open-source AI will kill $500M model startup funding
“By open sourcing these models, they limit competition because VCs are no longer going to plow half a billion dollars into a foundational model development company.”
David Friedberg Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 12:44 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: The title 'data scientist' originated from his team at Facebook
“As classically used in Silicon Valley, it came from Facebook and it came from my team in a critical moment.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 37:00 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: UnitedHealth stock outperformed Facebook and Google over the past decade
“If you look at the stock prices of these companies, you would have made more money being long United Healthcare than you would have been owning Facebook, Google, any of these other tech companies in the last decade.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 26:49 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath says a large Facebook group coordinated the Capitol siege
“You couldn't have seen this Facebook group called, you know, hashtag storm the capital, which had tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of members in there plotting and scheming, selling merchandise called storm the capital. You know, these guys were …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 8:45 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 51:28 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Big tech giants raised under $250M total before IPOs
“Less than a quarter billion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 51:49 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: DTC marketing costs on Facebook and Google have doubled or tripled
“Cause in the last year, the cost of DTC direct to consumer marketing on Facebook and Google. Double, tripled. And a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on D to C businesses because of it you know, costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make …”
David Friedberg Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 1:11:23 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2022 ▶ 54:02 E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more
Assertion Contradicted
Bannister: Zuckerberg listed his profile as libertarian when Facebook launched
“And then along came Facebook and he added this third option called libertarian. And I would like to go to the way back machine at some point and find his profile because his profile said he was a libertarian.”
Cyan Banister Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:01:31 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Google, Uber, Airbnb, Meta doubled revenue per employee in 2-3 years
“If you look at Google, Uber, Airbnb, and Facebook Meta, They have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year, which means in but two to three years, each of those companies has doubled reve…”
Jason Calacanis Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 40:07 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
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