why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Meta's open-source AI will kill $500M model startup funding
“By open sourcing these models, they limit competition because VCs are no longer going to plow half a billion dollars into a foundational model development company.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: The title 'data scientist' originated from his team at Facebook
“As classically used in Silicon Valley, it came from Facebook and it came from my team in a critical moment.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: UnitedHealth stock outperformed Facebook and Google over the past decade
“If you look at the stock prices of these companies, you would have made more money being long United Healthcare than you would have been owning Facebook, Google, any of these other tech companies in the last decade.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath says a large Facebook group coordinated the Capitol siege
“You couldn't have seen this Facebook group called, you know, hashtag storm the capital, which had tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of members in there plotting and scheming, selling merchandise called storm the capital. You know, these guys were …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Big tech giants raised under $250M total before IPOs
“Less than a quarter billion dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: DTC marketing costs on Facebook and Google have doubled or tripled
“Cause in the last year, the cost of DTC direct to consumer marketing on Facebook and Google. Double, tripled. And a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on D to C businesses because of it you know, costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make …”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bannister: Zuckerberg listed his profile as libertarian when Facebook launched
“And then along came Facebook and he added this third option called libertarian. And I would like to go to the way back machine at some point and find his profile because his profile said he was a libertarian.”
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Google, Uber, Airbnb, Meta doubled revenue per employee in 2-3 years
“If you look at Google, Uber, Airbnb, and Facebook Meta, They have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year, which means in but two to three years, each of those companies has doubled reve…”