The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: DeepSeek's compute cluster costs over $1 billion
“You add up the cost of a compute cluster with 50,000 plus hoppers, and it's going to be over a billion dollars. So this idea that you've got this scrappy company that did it for only six million, just not true. They have a substantial compute cluster that they…”
Brin admits DeepSeek's release closed the gap with proprietary AI models
“Deep Seek released a really surprisingly powerful model when it was January or so. So that, that definitely closed the gap to proprietary models.”
Calacanis: Grok 3 has eclipsed Gemini, DeepSeek, Claude, and ChatGPT-4o
“Grok III has now eclipsed Gemini, which is Google's LLM, and DeepSeq from China, Quad, and ChatGPT-IVO.”
Naval: US lost DeepSeek researchers because we sent foreign students home
“You could even argue deep seek. Part of the reason why we lost that is because a bunch of those kids, they studied in the US, but then we sent them back home.”
Palihapitiya: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia CUDA software lock-in using PTX
“Everybody is used to building models and compiling through CUDA, which is Nvidia's proprietary language, which I've said for a couple of times is their biggest moat, but it's also the biggest threat factor for lock-in. And these guys worked totally around CUDA…”
Chamath Palihapitiya says DeepSeek's chain-of-thought proves its model was distilled
“So the reason why this is happening is like, you're seeing this chain of thought, you're seeing the several layers, and then it's catching it after the fact. So we know that this is distilled from some other model.”
Chamath: DeepSeek's million-dollar model matched OpenAI's billion-dollar o1 model
“We saw a model that got released by the Chinese under, by the way, a totally M you know, open source MIT license that you can run on a laptop. And it turned out to be as good as open AI's O one model. So a couple of versions old, but the point is that This mod…”
Gerstner: DeepSeek, Anthropic, and OpenAI will launch Blackwell-trained models in 4–8 weeks
“And just this year, like we're going to see the first models over the course of the next four to eight weeks out of deep seek, out of anthropic, out of open AI that are trained on blackwell servers, right? You're going to see a next generation of models Far mo…”
Sacks: DeepSeek release erased $1 trillion in market cap in one day
“It's rare that a model release is going to be a global news story or Cause a trillion dollars of market cap decline in, in one day.”
Palihapitiya: DeepSeek created GRPO algorithm to slash AI memory requirements
“They invented a totally different algorithm. There was the orthodoxy. Right? This thing called PPO that everybody used, and they were like, no, we're going to use something else called, I think it's called GRPO or something. It uses a lot less computer memory,…”