why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Former employee claimed Google trained its AI using ChatGPT
“And the proof of that is there was just a lawsuit a couple of days ago, or at least a claim by a former employee of Google who quit because he said that they were using ChatGPT to train Their AI.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI missed its 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT
“They missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Yale study shows no job market disruption 33 months after ChatGPT
“This follows on the heels of that study from Yale Budget Lab, which I talked about in a previous show, that it said there's no discernible disruption to the job market based on 33 months of data after the launch of ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Altman: OpenAI could be legally forced to disclose ChatGPT user logs
“We haven't figured that out yet for when you talk to ChatGPT. So if you go talk to ChatGPT about your most sensitive stuff, and then there's, like, a lawsuit or whatever, like, we could be required to produce that, and I think that's very screwed up.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Grok 3 has eclipsed Gemini, DeepSeek, Claude, and ChatGPT-4o
“Grok III has now eclipsed Gemini, which is Google's LLM, and DeepSeq from China, Quad, and ChatGPT-IVO.”
Assertion Supported
Lafont: ChatGPT maintains over 80% market share against AI rivals
“It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: ChatGPT consumer market share will drop well under 50%
“They're going to be well under 50% market share, and I think ChatGPT is going to have some big challenges there on the consumer side.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta is about to launch a standalone app competing with ChatGPT
“And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPT and Grok, yeah. A standalone app.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: US ChatGPT web traffic dropped 25-26% after school year ended
“The traffic in the United States is down about 25, 26% since the end of the school year, which I think reinforces this belief that ChatGPT has definitely over indexed in that young people's cohort where they rely on it to write essays or what have you.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Facebook and LinkedIn will block ChatGPT from accessing their data
“Somebody like Facebook, when they release their language model, which they're about to, is not going to allow ChatGPT to have any access to the Facebook corpus of data. And then LinkedIn will do the same. They'll block any access to ChatGPT to their data.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: MIT study found 83% of LLM essay writers could not quote their work
“What happened was the LLM user showed severe deficits, quote, in memory and essay ownership, with 83% being unable to quote from the essays they had just written.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: ChatGPT holds roughly 80% consumer LLM chatbot market share
“ChatGPT is the leader in consumer. They have something like 80% market share in consumer use of LLM chatbots.”
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: ChatGPT usage will bounce back to 100M–150M level after summer
“I think that what we're going to see is kids come back to school. You're going to see the normal uptick in traffic. It probably hangs out around this hundred million, hundred and fifty million level in terms of usage.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI updated ChatGPT to limit relationship advice and prompt breaks
“OpenAI saw this becoming an issue and they made some healthy use updates to ChatGPT. It's no longer going to tell you whether or not To break up with your boyfriend, to leave your spouse, it prompts you to take a break after long sessions.”