why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
Prediction Held up
Sacks: TikTok paying Oracle political protection money; deal will fail
“It's bite dance paying political protection money to Larry Ellison to be their bodyguard in this political process. But, and I, but that's why I don't think it's going to fly.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: TikTok or ByteDance will go public or spin out in 2024
“I'm gonna say this year that I think TikTok goes public, and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance taking, going public or tick tock spinning out and going public.”
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: TikTok will be forced to spin off to US investors
“I think they're probably gonna have to spin this thing out. And if they hold any equity, if the Chinese parent company holds any equity interest, it'll probably be non-voting shares. And there'll be a mandate that the majority of the shares and some degree of …”
Prediction Held up
TikTok faces US ban unless ByteDance sells majority control to Americans
“I think that TikTok, unless they basically have ByteDance sell under 20 or 30% of the company and get it into the hands of Americans it will get banned.”
Assertion Supported
Joe Tsai: ByteDance is one of Alibaba's fiercest e-commerce competitors
“The parent company of TikTok, ByteDance, they're doing e-commerce. They're not known as an e-commerce company, but they are one of our fiercest competitors.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: ByteDance announced a $1B Nvidia chip purchase in June 2023
“ByteDance bought a billion dollars worth of Nvidia chips announced this week, right?”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: ByteDance internal probe confirmed employees accessed US reporters' data
“According to the New York Times, ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, said on Thursday that an internal investigation found that employees had inappropriately obtained the data of US TikTok users, including that of two reporters.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: UK and China hold golden votes in companies like ByteDance and Rolls-Royce
“If you look inside of the UK, there's a bunch of aerospace and defense companies, including Rolls-Royce, that have a very tight coupling with the UK government. They have a golden vote. If you look in China, companies like ByteDance and CATL have a very tight …”
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: ByteDance generates $120B revenue and $25B profit
“ByteDance's revenue is about a hundred and twenty billion dollars. It's been reported their profits are about twenty five billion dollars.”