The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 1:12:39 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Prediction Held up
Sacks: TikTok paying Oracle political protection money; deal will fail
“It's bite dance paying political protection money to Larry Ellison to be their bodyguard in this political process. But, and I, but that's why I don't think it's going to fly.”
David Sacks Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 17:55 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: TikTok or ByteDance will go public or spin out in 2024
“I'm gonna say this year that I think TikTok goes public, and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance taking, going public or tick tock spinning out and going public.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 39:55 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: TikTok will be forced to spin off to US investors
“I think they're probably gonna have to spin this thing out. And if they hold any equity, if the Chinese parent company holds any equity interest, it'll probably be non-voting shares. And there'll be a mandate that the majority of the shares and some degree of …”
David Friedberg Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 1:18:58 E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
Prediction Held up
TikTok faces US ban unless ByteDance sells majority control to Americans
“I think that TikTok, unless they basically have ByteDance sell under 20 or 30% of the company and get it into the hands of Americans it will get banned.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 29:53 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Assertion Supported
Joe Tsai: ByteDance is one of Alibaba's fiercest e-commerce competitors
“The parent company of TikTok, ByteDance, they're doing e-commerce. They're not known as an e-commerce company, but they are one of our fiercest competitors.”
Joe Tsai Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 9:06 Alibaba's Joe Tsai on US-China Rivalry, AI Future, Owning the Nets/Liberty, Caitlin Clark's Impact
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: ByteDance announced a $1B Nvidia chip purchase in June 2023
“ByteDance bought a billion dollars worth of Nvidia chips announced this week, right?”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 44:08 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: ByteDance internal probe confirmed employees accessed US reporters' data
“According to the New York Times, ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, said on Thursday that an internal investigation found that employees had inappropriately obtained the data of US TikTok users, including that of two reporters.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 20, 2023 ▶ 1:09:10 E112: Is Davos a grift? Plus: globalist mishaps, debt ceilings, TikTok's endgame & more
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: UK and China hold golden votes in companies like ByteDance and Rolls-Royce
“If you look inside of the UK, there's a bunch of aerospace and defense companies, including Rolls-Royce, that have a very tight coupling with the UK government. They have a golden vote. If you look in China, companies like ByteDance and CATL have a very tight …”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2025 ▶ 1:18:33 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: ByteDance generates $120B revenue and $25B profit
“ByteDance's revenue is about a hundred and twenty billion dollars. It's been reported their profits are about twenty five billion dollars.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 1:23:13 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
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