The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 51:28 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2022 ▶ 54:02 E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Google Play app store fees range from 12% to 15%
“Google's app store costs, by the way, are not Apple's and they're not 30%. And we talked about this last time. I'll pull it up for you again. It's like 15 to 12 going down. It's a sliding scale.”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 12:50 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Apple will sell 500,000 Vision Pros in 2024
“They've sold already 200,000 units. Which doesn't seem like a lot, but for a V one, that is a lot. And they're gonna sell a half million this year.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 12:56 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Warren Buffett has only bought two tech stocks: Apple and Snowflake
“What are the two technology companies Buffett bought in the public markets? Apple. Apple and Snowflake.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 48:01 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
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