The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Chamath: Microsoft turned to Anduril after failing a $24B Army contract
“They had a twenty four billion dollar contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz bang thing. And they realized that they couldn't deliver it. And so what did they do? They went to Anduril.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 39:41 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Secondary transactions equal 31% of primary VC activity in 2025
“This is the amount of employee secondary. So this is people buying into Anduril, Anthropic, SpaceX, now represents 31% of all primary venture activity. Is buying into these secondaries in 20, 25.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 1:47 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Assertion Supported
Stephens: Fully autonomous weapons like the Navy's CIWS system are not new
“Fully autonomous weapons are not new. We've had autonomous systems in operation like CWIS, which is deployed on naval vessels. That shoots down aerial threats fully autonomously.”
Trey Stevens Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 48:23 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Assertion Supported
Anduril won a $1B counter-drone contract with US Special Operations Command
“We just won a billion dollar contract with US SOCOM, Special Operations Command, to do counter drone work”
Palmer Luckey Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 43:43 #AIS: Palmer Luckey on Anduril
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