The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Agent-written code caused three or four SEV-1 outages at AWS
“Why does Amazon issue an edict that says you cannot use this stuff inside of AWS unless a human now reviews and approves it? Because what happened? They had three or four SEV-ONE faults from a bunch of code that was written by agents that brought down AWS.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 34:14 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Amazon's advertising business will surpass AWS within three years
“It'll be bigger than AWS in three years at this rate.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2021 ▶ 1:14:18 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
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