why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied Vatican on AI encyclical
“The folks at Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied the Vatican on April, 29th to soften the language in his missive.”
Assertion Supported
Leaked Amazon docs reveal plan to automate 75% of warehouses by 2033
“Internal docs viewed by the New York times showed Amazon plans to not hire. 600,000 plan jobs because of robots by 2033. So this isn't, they're planning on laying off 600,000 workers, but rather they're just pulling back their hiring plans and ramping up their…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Four of Elizabeth Warren's top ten donors are big tech companies
“Four of the top 10 contributors to Elizabeth Warren are Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Microsoft and Amazon allocating billions toward forward-deployed engineers
“Microsoft just announced a two and a half billion dollar investment to stand up in FDE, or Amazon is spending a billion dollars to create an FDE.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Bezos achieved a 42% ROIC reinvesting Amazon's free cash flow
“We calculated what Bezos is investment track record was, right? Because he basically took all his free cash flow and reinvested it in the business and you could measure what his return on invested capital was, and it was like, 42% and on a really big number on…”
Prediction Held up
Sacks: FTC Chair Lina Khan will not be recused regarding Amazon
“There's no way this is gonna fly. There's no way she's gonna get recused”
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts Amazon will face Facebook-level antitrust scrutiny within 5-10 years
“Amazon today I don't think is at risk just because its end market is so big, but I think within five or 10 years it definitely will be looked at through the same lens as Facebook and Google and actually just those two.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes Amazon's total headcount declined from its 2021 peak
“The actual peak employment there was 1.6 million in 2021, and it's now 1.55 in 2025.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Headcounts at Meta, Uber, and Amazon have dropped from peak levels
“You know, Meta peaked at 86,000 employees now at 75. Uber at 33, now at 31. And Amazon, where you would think you'd have a lot of growth here they're at, they peaked at 1.6 and now they're down at 1.55.”
Assertion Supported
Trump claims Big Tech is investing $320 billion in AI infrastructure
“Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all investing three hundred and twenty billion dollars or more in data centers and AI infrastructure this year.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Amazon paid MrBeast for 'Beast Games' distribution deal
“Jimmy's getting a deal from Amazon. Amazon paid him for the Beast games.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Broadcom is a $1.12T business that receives little attention
“Is that it is the only trillion dollar company that nobody talks about. Everybody knows Nvidia. Everybody knows Amazon Meta, but Broadcom is a 1.12 trillion dollar business.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes recent AWS outage crippled 2,000 companies for 15 hours
“Monday, massive AWS outage, 2000 companies, four million users unable to function on the internet for half a day, 15 hours, 20 hours.”
Assertion Supported
JCal: Seven tech stocks drive most of 2023 stock market gains
“Seven stocks make up the mo- most of the gains this year. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Almost 90 Amazon VPs or higher left since 2021
“Almost 90 VPs or higher level execs have left Amazon since 2021.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Amazon is cancelling plans for 15 U.S. warehouses
“Now they're realizing the demand is not going to be there. And they're cutting back on 15 warehouses around the country and not going to build them.”