The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Silver Lake made $3B to $4B on Airbnb emergency deal
“They put in debt, and then they got warrants, and the warrants ended up making them, like, I mean, Silver Lake. Forex, it's insane. They made, like, three, four billion dollars.”
David Friedberg Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 19:05 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Silver Lake turned $1B Airbnb debt into $4B in six months
“Silver Lake swooped into Airbnb in April, gave him a 12% debt deal for a billion dollars, and they got warrants that, the warrants today, Are worth about 1.4 billion dollars. And this debt is probably worth three times what they put in. So in like five months,…”
David Friedberg Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 47:25 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Google, Uber, Airbnb, Meta doubled revenue per employee in 2-3 years
“If you look at Google, Uber, Airbnb, and Facebook Meta, They have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year, which means in but two to three years, each of those companies has doubled reve…”
Jason Calacanis Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 40:07 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis predicts consumer comfort services like DoorDash and Uber will thrive in 2024
“I'm going to go with consumer comfort services. I think as austerity measures and this, whether we have a soft landing or a recession, it's clear the consumers have spent all their money. So they're going to go for small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, s…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 56:10 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Airbnb reached an $88B valuation five months after massive layoffs
“They laid off 25% of the company in July. 1900 of 7500 employees. They cut their marketing budget by eight hundred million, and then they IPO five months later, ah, and they had raised a billion dollars at an eighteen billion dollar valuation, according to Pit…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 32:43 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Sequoia's top recent portfolio exits exceed $300B combined valuation
“Over the past two years, they've had DoorDash, Airbnb, Snowflake, Unity, all these incredible companies worth over three hundred billion dollars combined.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 54:11 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Airbnb paid $250M to hosts to offset COVID-19 cancellations
“At the company's expense, they refunded something like two hundred fifty million dollars to the, to users who had canceled reservations, but they gave the money to the host to keep them afloat.”
David Sacks Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 4:24 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Airbnb absorbed customer deposit losses from COVID cancellations
“When they had a whole ton of cancellations because of COVID, they ate all those deposits. They made good on that.”
David Sacks Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 9:34 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
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