The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 182 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: Ukraine is on track to collapse, probably next year
“And what we're on track for is, at some point, Probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse.”
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Sacks: Anthropic has the fastest growing revenue run rate ever seen
“Third, Anthropix revenue run rate is based on what I can tell and what's been publicly released is the fastest growing revenue run rate at scale that I think we've ever seen.”
Sacks: Roughly $8 billion was stolen by Somali fraudsters in Minnesota
“The eight billion or so that was stolen by Somali fraudsters.”
Sacks: Over 80% of Crimeans poll in favor of being part of Russia
“And if you look at what the people of Crimea want, and there's been a lot of Western polling on this, there's been man on the street interviews by NBC, the people of Crimea by something like over 80% say they want to be part of Russia.”
Sacks: Ukraine's military will collapse within one to six months
“I think that Ukraine within, it could be in the next month. It could be the next two months. It could be the next six months. I think they're eventually going to collapse. They're getting close to being combat incapable.”
Sacks: Democrats are more likely than not to keep Biden on ticket
“Whoa. I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to replace Biden because the only feasible alternative is Harris and should be worse, and I think it's more dangerous for the country, frankly.”
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
Sacks: DNC lawyers will fight to keep RFK Jr. off swing state ballots
“I think what you're gonna see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot, at least in the major contested states, like the five or six states. Where the presidency will be decided in 20…”
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
Sacks predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in Q1 2024
“I think there will be a rate cut in Q-one, and I think this is the Biden bailout.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
Sacks: Fed inaction over weekend could spark regional bank runs
“Unless the Fed steps in here over the weekend, we're going to see potentially a run on the regional banking system, a Cascade like we saw in 2008.”
Sacks predicts Garland will drop Trump document prosecution
“I think Merrick Garland now is going to have to drop the prosecution against Trump for the stolen documents, or at least that part of what they're investigating him for.”
Sacks predicts Supreme Court will strike down university affirmative action policies
“I think the majority will rule to strike down these policies That really discriminate against Asian Americans, and I think they're the last group in America where it seems to be okay to discriminate against, and I think the Supreme Court is gonna find that unc…”
Sacks: Banks will soon take over San Francisco office towers
“I think office towers in San Francisco are, that is some serious toxic debt, 27% vacancy rates and growing as Lisa's role. I think that a lot of these buildings, maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown is going to be owned by the bank soon because no…”
Sacks: Biden's student debt relief will be struck down by Supreme Court
“I expect this to be challenged and taken to the Supreme Court. And I think there's a very good chance that it'll end up like Biden's other executive orders that were ruled unconstitutional.”
Sacks: 2024 US presidential election will be DeSantis vs. Newsom
“I think it's going to be DeSantis versus Newsom in 24.”
Sacks: Disney CEO Bob Chapek won't survive the year
“I think Bob What's his name? Bob Chapek. I don't think he's going to survive the year after what just happened at Disney, and it's because he gave in to the employees, took sides against the, you know, governor in Florida and the legislature, and they just rip…”
Sacks predicts Putin installs a puppet government and leaves within a year
“I don't think he wants this problem long term. It's probably gonna be more like the situation we had in Georgia in 2008. He goes in for a year. He institutes perhaps some sort of puppet government or some government that's more favorable to him, and then he ge…”
David Sacks predicts Hispanic and Asian American voters flip Republican in 2022
“It's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters, and I think you're gonna see in November, 20, 22, that they go for Republicans in big numbers, and so the idea that the Democratic Party can just coast to election based …”
Sacks predicts the Supreme Court will invalidate Texas' SB8 abortion law
“And I think regardless of what you think about abortion, this law will eventually be invalidated by the Supreme Court or a lower court on that ground that they're allowing people to sue without standing.”
Sacks predicts Gavin Newsom will be recalled over closures and crime
“And if these two things don't turn around, I think Gavin Newsom is going to get recalled.”
Sacks: TikTok paying Oracle political protection money; deal will fail
“It's bite dance paying political protection money to Larry Ellison to be their bodyguard in this political process. But, and I, but that's why I don't think it's going to fly.”
Sacks: High chance Biden's VP pick becomes president within two years
“There's a very high chance that this VP pick will become the president, given Biden's age and everything going on in the world. And we've just seen crisis after crisis this year. I think there's gonna be more shoes to drop. And this person that we don't even k…”
David Sacks claims official COVID fatality rate is overstated by 10x
“The official fatality rate has been over, which is about six percent. You know, it's a very high fatality rate. It's pretty scary, but we now know that that's overstated by probably at least 10 X.”
Sacks: No other country in the world has birthright citizenship policy
“By the way, I don't think any country in the world has this policy. It's kind of a crazy policy.”
Sacks: Future of Life Institute holds ~$1B, boosted by $600M Vitalik donation
“Future of Life is one of these EA-funded Doomer think tanks, and they've got something like A billion dollars. Vitalik Buterin donated six hundred million dollars of dog coins to the, anyway.”
Sacks: Viral AI doomer report updated co-authorship to include short fund
“There's some information that just came out that the attribution of the article has been amended, meaning the coauthors have been amended to include a short fund that was shorting some of the names mentioned in the article.”
Sacks: China is blocking Nvidia chips to subsidize and elevate Huawei
“I think Bloomberg and Reuters reported that they actually are not allowing Nvidia chips into their country, and the reason for that, we think, is that they want to indigenize chip production. They want to stand up Huawei as their national champion, and effecti…”
Sacks: Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75-100 basis points by June 2026
“And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts. Possibly, 75 to a hundred basis points, and big tax refunds are coming in April, thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips overtime and Social Security.”
Sacks: 2026 will see a major IPO boom creating trillions in market cap
“I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs. I'm not going to say which ones. I think there's going to be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones, and I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies.”
Sacks: China will not deploy superior sub-2nm chip manufacturing next year
“Well, I don't think that's going to happen. Let's talk about that if it actually happens. I don't think it's going to.”
Sacks: San Francisco gives roughly $2 billion annually to homelessness NGOs
“The city provides something like two billion dollars a year to these NGOs.”
Sacks predicts Trump administration will support federal preemption of AI laws
“So I think the administration ultimately will support this.”
Sacks: Hyperscaler AI CapEx spend will hold up despite tariffs
“I think it's going to hold up. I mean, look, I just think that this investment in, in CapEx and the data center build outs is so strategic right now. I mean, I think that the hyperscalers, it's only good for their businesses, but I think they see it as so stra…”
Sacks: Musk says DOGE has identified $160B in annual federal spending cuts
“Well, he says they're at a hundred and sixty billion right now. I think that's, by the way, that's an annual number as far as I understand it.”
Sacks: Crypto market structure bill could pass within six months
“I think we could do a revised and updated version this Congress. And that was one of the things they all, the chairman expressed support for. So I think there's a pretty good chance we could get this done in the next six months.”
Sacks: Congress will pass stablecoin legislation in the next several months
“What the four chairman indicated is actually they're going to take up stable coins first. And then market structure will follow very quickly. So I think we could see a stable coin bill past Congress in the next several months.”
Sacks: The West lacks technology to intercept hypersonic missiles
“The West And the United States in particular does not, as far as we know, have a technology to intercept a hypersonic missile like that.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris campaign ended $20 million in debt
“She had a billion dollars to spend. The campaign still ended, twenty million dollars in debt.”
Sacks: Republican early voting in Pennsylvania is up 500,000 over 2020
“It looks like the early voting in Pennsylvania is trending 500,000 votes better For Republicans in the early voting than four years ago.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris will be nominee if Biden steps down
“I think that if they succeed in pushing Biden out, which does seem probably more likely than not at this point, I think it's got to be Harris. And I think she's going to be the nominee.”
Sacks: Winklevoss twins donating $1M each in Bitcoin to Trump
“I heard the Winklevoss brothers are actually announcing That they're donating a million dollars each in Bitcoin to you tomorrow.”
Sachs: Fed will extend or replace Bank Term Funding Program in 2024
“I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program. So I think the feds can have to do something to either replace the program, extend the program.”
Sacks predicts S&P 493 will outperform the Magnificent Seven in 2024
“I would bet against the magnificent seven just because I believe that what goes up must come down, and the hotter they are, the harder they fall. I'm not saying that the magnificent seven are actually going to go down. I'm just saying that the S&P four 93 Are …”