The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: An expanded BRICS will control 90% of globally traded oil
“If BRICS adds Venezuela, Algeria, and Kazakhstan, as they may do as soon as next year, they'll control 90% of all oil and gas traded globally.”
Sacks: US economy may avoid recession and see rate cuts in 2024
“What you're seeing over the last few weeks, it's just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing. That we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.”
Sacks predicts Sam Bankman-Fried will avoid criminal conviction
“No, it looks like he's getting off.”
Sacks predicts Fed will delay interest rate cuts for two years
“My guess is that they'll be too slow to react to the recession. So we'll end up with a period of rates being higher than they should too long, and then they will correct. They'll drop rates, but that could be two years from now.”
Sacks: US unemployment could reach 25% to 30%
“Like a 15% unemployment rate going to 25 or 30 maybe as high as that.”
Sacks: Economists in a year may state a recession has already begun
“I think the economists a year from now may say that the recession had already begun.”
Sacks is skeptical that the US economy will achieve a soft landing
“I just am skeptical. There's going to be a soft landing because of what Chamath is saying, which is, this is a multi-part problem. And until we fix the supply side, I don't think that merely reducing demand is going to get us out of this.”