The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Friedberg predicts AOC will be elected US President
“So I predict AOC will be president.”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:28:45 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Shirley: Entitlement fraud money in Minnesota is funding Al-Shabaab terrorists
“And so like the rumors of them funding Al-Shabaab, they're real, because they've been able to funnel all this money.”
Nick Shirley Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 39:10 Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 27:14 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Trump pledges to eliminate the federal Department of Education
“We are going to close up education. We'll have a tiny little group to make sure everyone's teaching at least English. And perhaps proper math, et cetera, but very little. Department of Education goes, and education goes back to the states, and where it belongs…”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 16:59 In conversation with President Trump
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2025
Sacks: Data shows 3x more people on left endorse political violence
“Last week we showed you plenty of data showing that there was three times as many people on the left who are celebrating or endorsing political violence.”
David Sacks Sep 27, 2025 ▶ 56:07 H-1B Shakeup, Kimmel Apology, Autism Causes, California Hate Speech Law
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Sacks: Russia will likely use a tactical nuke if Ukraine retakes Crimea
“With the result that I think is quite likely that the Russians will be willing to use a tactical nuke to prevent their total defeat.”
David Sacks Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 1:09:36 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
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