Mar 6, 2026 · 1h 22m · allin
War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Emil Michael · 31m spoken Jason Calacanis · 17m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 13m spoken David Friedberg · 11m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In Episode 263 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts interview Under Secretary of War Emil Michael to analyze ongoing U.S. military operations in Iran, geopolitical energy strategies involving China, and the Pentagon's high-profile decision to designate AI startup Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. The discussion provides an insider perspective on autonomous defense technology, military supply chain resilience, and the conflict between private technology governance and national security.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 56.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.0 Guest teaching 5.4 Guest disagreement 2.4 The hosts pushing back 2.0
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:00:25 Dario's Exception Proposal Dismissed
Emil sharply dismisses Dario Amodei's suggestion that the Pentagon call him personally for real-time model exceptions during military operations, characterizing the premise as absurd.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 57:24 Friedberg Challenges Supply Chain DesignationFriedberg directly challenges Emil on why the Pentagon escalated to designating Anthropic as a supply chain risk rather than simply terminating their contract and switching vendors.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 47:00 Anthropic Maduro Raid Inquiry DisclosedEmil educates the hosts by revealing that Anthropic queried Palantir regarding model usage during the classified Maduro operation, exposing the operational trust breakdown that triggered Pentagon action.
The host holds their own ▶ 38:21 Friedberg Financial Masterclass on Maritime RiskFriedberg demonstrates deep historical and market expertise by detailing the origin of Lloyd's of London, syndicate reinsurance structures, and how government credit facilities backstop maritime trade.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overview of Operation Epic Fury and Military Objectives in Iran | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Jason sets up the context surrounding Operation Epic Fury and asks direct questions regarding timeline expectations and potential ground troop involvement. Emil provides official administration framing, clarifying that the conflict is expected to last weeks rather than months without long-term ground deployment. | |
| Geopolitical Strategy: China Energy Reliance and Strategic Leverage | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Friedberg and Chamath present detailed geopolitical theories linking Venezuelan and Iranian operations to China's energy imports and strategic leverage before upcoming bilateral summits. Emil politely reframes their macroeconomic thesis as a secondary benefit rather than the primary driver of military action. | |
| Modern Military Operations, Low Casualties, and 'The Discombobulator' | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Chamath probes Emil about the reported 'discombobulator' weapon, which Emil declines to elaborate on due to classification. Emil educates the hosts on how updated rules of engagement allow military commanders operational discretion rather than overly restrictive legalistic parity. | |
| The Drone Dominance Program and Unmanned Systems in Modern Warfare | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Hosts inquire about drone deployment scale and unit economics, citing specific program names like LUCAS. Emil explains the Pentagon's drone dominance program, hardware cost structures, and heterogeneous autonomous swarms. | |
| AI Precision, Ethical Considerations, and Missile Defense (Golden Dome) | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Jason and Friedberg raise ethical questions regarding fully autonomous targeting and potential civilian harm. Emil clarifies that basic drone autonomy and missile defense systems like Golden Dome require AI due to reaction time constraints rather than Sci-Fi 'Skynet' scenarios. | |
| U.S.-Israel Alignment, Regional Strategy, and Political Identity | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Hosts debate US alignment with Israel and domestic political dynamics surrounding Middle Eastern policy. Emil playfully banters with Jason about his political identity and voting record when Jason defends his independent alignment. | |
| Economic Impact: Strait of Hormuz, Oil Volatility, and Maritime Insurance | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Friedberg delivers an extensive historical and financial explanation of maritime insurance, tracing its origin back to 17th century London coffee shops and explaining how the US International Development Finance Corporation is stepping in to backstop Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic. | |
| Pentagon Designates Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | Jason introduces the breaking news regarding Anthropic being designated a supply chain risk. Emil explains the backstory, noting that Anthropic insisted on specific usage exceptions while the Pentagon insisted on an 'all lawful use' baseline. | |
| National Security Concerns and Software Reliability Risks | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | Emil reveals an insider account detailing how an Anthropic executive inquired with Palantir whether their model was utilized in the Maduro raid. This raised severe operational security and software reliability concerns within Pentagon leadership. | |
| Chamath on Corporate Subjectivity and Multi-Model Strategy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Chamath delivers an extended analysis on enterprise software risk, warning that corporate political subjectivity in AI providers forces institutions to adopt multi-model architectures to avoid de-platforming. | |
| AI Substrate Power and the Danger of Corporate Constitutions | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | Emil contrasts corporate constitutions with the US Constitution and shares behind-the-scenes details about Sam Altman attempting to mediate the dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon. | |
| Challenges of Disentangling Embedded AI Workflows | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Friedberg asks why Anthropic was so critical to the Department of War, and Emil clarifies that their forward-deployed presence made them deeply embedded in operational workflows. Chamath shares concrete internal data on exploding AI token operational expenses. | |
| Rationale Behind the Supply-Chain Risk Designation | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | Friedberg directly challenges Emil on why the Pentagon needed to take the extreme step of designating Anthropic a supply chain risk instead of simply canceling the contract. Emil justifies the designation by arguing that policy bias in model outputs could jeopardize defense contractors like Boeing or Lockheed Martin. | |
| The Lawful Use Standard Versus Corporate Veto Power | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | Emil recounts a direct interaction where Dario suggested calling him for real-time exceptions during active military operations, which Emil dismissed as unworkable and illustrative of corporate overreach. | |
| Evaluating Anthropic's $350 Billion Valuation and Growth | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Friedberg and Chamath analyze Anthropic's reported $6 billion ARR growth and evaluate market valuation dynamics between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Emil listens as the hosts discuss product adoption metrics. | |
| Pentagon Strategy for Model Asymptotes and Cloud Margins | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Chamath asks about Pentagon strategy when frontier AI models hit capability asymptotes. Emil explains how model convergence enables price competition while noting Google's structural margin advantage from owning vertical cloud infrastructure. | |
| Host Advice for Dario Amodei and Potential Reconciliation | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | The hosts offer strategic reconciliation advice to Dario Amodei. Emil emphasizes that any path forward would require addressing public statements where Dario criticized administration leadership. | |
| Rebuilding the US Defense Industrial Base and Critical Minerals | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg inquires about domestic hardware manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains. Emil outlines the role of the $200 billion Office of Strategic Capital in reshoring battery production and solid rocket motors. | |
| Disrupting Legacy Defense Primes with Venture-Backed Tech | 7 | 8 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg asks about venture-backed defense tech startups disrupting legacy primes. Emil explains how traditional defense primes historically established moats around bureaucratic contracting rather than product speed, and how the Pentagon is simplifying requirements. | |
| DARPA Innovations: Biological Mineral Synthesis and Cyber Defense | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Chamath asks about current DARPA initiatives, and Emil highlights biological synthesis of critical minerals and advanced cyber defense. Jason asks about China's naval buildup, and Emil contrasts raw capacity with US operational experience. |
Statements from this episode (58)
Calacanis: U.S. submarine strike in Iran war is first torpedo kill since WWII
“This is the first torpedo kill since World War II.”
Emil Michael: No scenario for protracted U.S. ground war in Iran
“In terms of boots on the ground, there's no scenario where we have some protracted boots on the ground, Afghanistan, Iraq too, like scenario.”
Friedberg: 90% of Iranian oil exports go to China
“90% of the oil that comes out of Iran goes to China.”
Chamath: China's 4.5-5% GDP target is lowest in 30 years
“The official Chinese bureaucracy posted what their GDP targets were. And it was shocking to anybody reading it, because what we saw was that they guided to a range of four and a half to five percent, which if you look at the historical context of that growth, …”
Chamath: Slowing domestic growth makes invading Taiwan logical for China
“If you have that as a starting point, what is it in China's best interest to do? And I think it becomes obvious that the right thing to do would be to invade Taiwan.”
Chamath: Iran, Venezuela, and Russia account for ~40% of China's oil
“About a fifth of it comes exclusively from Iran and Venezuela, and now all of that is off the table. So if you take that, and then you see what Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Josh Greenbaum have been doing, which is trying to get a deal done in Russia, an…”
Michael: China purged its only general with combat experience
“And so they've learned a lot of lessons and you compare that to the Chinese military. They don't have a lot of experience. In fact, the decapitation they did in the Chinese military, the one guy they took out was the one guy who had experience in Vietnam. So t…”
Emil Michael: US military operation 'Midnight Hammer' in Iran was planned years in advance
“So, and they, these things, these war games have been on the on the shelf for a long time. Every, every scenario has been planned for years ahead of time. Midnight hammer and Iran was planned years ahead of time in terms of how would you do it if you were goin…”
Emil Michael: Drones cause 70% of casualties in Russia-Ukraine war
“70% of the casualties are for drone, but because of drones.”
Emil Michael: Lucas attack drones cost between $50,000 and $80,000
“The Lucas one-way attack drone, which can go five, six, 700 miles at the speed of an airplane, carry a big warhead. Those are like 50, 80,000 dollars, depending on what kind of equipment you put on it.”
Emil Michael: Future sophisticated drone warfare will feature AI-controlled swarms
“I mean, it's, I believe that a sophisticated drone war is going to be drone swarms controlled by AI to some degree or another, right?”
Michael: China forces commercial drone makers like DJI to interoperate
“They have drone swarms because they can force the companies that make them, not just DGI, to interoperate.”
Michael warns China is stealing US AI models to unguardrail them
“Your models are getting stolen by the Chinese. They're going to unguard rail them and use them against us.”
Chamath: Trump is not captured by Israel and acts in US interest
“I don't think the president is captured by Israel in the least. I think he decides what is in the best interest of the United States, and if Israel can be a part of that, then they're a part of it.”
Chamath: Iran's munitions are 90% depleted four days into military operation
“What you're seeing today in this Operation Epic Fury, we're four days in, Iran has been 90% depleted of all of their munitions, it looks like.”
Calacanis: 3.3M daily oil barrels lost next week if Strait stays closed
“Unless the straight opens, 3.3 million barrels of daily production would be lost early next week.”
Calacanis: Strait supertanker traffic dropped 94% in 48 hours after insurance cuts
“Supertanker traffic dropped 94% within the first 48 hours.”
Friedberg: U.S. maritime risk backstop could reshore insurance industry from Europe
“And ultimately a lot of people are saying this could actually reshore or onshore maritime insurance back to the United States and create an entirely new insurance industry here in the U.S. That has historically been served almost exclusively by European syndic…”
Calacanis: Pentagon designating Anthropic a supply-chain risk is historically unprecedented
“This has never happened to an American company.”
Calacanis: Department of War canceled $200 million Anthropic contract
“The Department of War canceled Anthropic's two hundred million dollar contract on Friday”
Michael: Anthropic contracts barred kinetic strike planning and satellite movement
“They say you can't use them for, you can't use them to plan a kinetic strike. You can't use their AI model to move a satellite.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic exec asked Palantir if AI was used in Maduro raid
“After the Maduro raid, one of their execs called Palantir, who we buy themselves through and asked them was our software used in that raid, which is by the way, classified information.”
Emil Michael: Palantir is the Pentagon prime contractor and Anthropic is sub
“Palantir is the prime contractor, their sub.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic missed a Pentagon deadline following high-level meeting
“So then that culminated in the Tuesday kind of dramatic meeting with Hexeth and Secretary Hexeth and me and Dario with the Friday deadline that, that got blown.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic retains control plane for AWS GovCloud deployed model
“Yeah, so they put their model in AWS GovCloud. And then Palantir serves it from there. And they refresh it. They held the control plane for the model.”
Chamath: AI provider employees will inevitably jeopardize customer businesses over moral subjectivity
“Because it is just a matter of time until some person inside of one of these companies goes on some lunatic moral tirade, and then jeopardizes your business against something that is nothing about law, but is everything about subjectivity.”
Emil Michael: AI leaders claim AI will cause 50% white-collar unemployment
“These, the leaders of these companies say they're going to cause 50% white collar unemployment.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic follows its own constitution, not the US Constitution
“Anthropic has its own constitution. It has its own soul. It's not the U S constitution.”
Emil Michael: Grok is deployed across classified and unclassified military networks
“Grok's all in. For all lawful use cases across all classified and unclassified networks”
Emil Michael: Pentagon is working to bring Google AI to classified networks
“We have Google for all lawful use cases on, on classified networks, and we're trying to move them to classified networks. They're just, They have to build out infrastructure because this stuff's complicated.”
Emil Michael: Sam Altman urged Pentagon not to label Anthropic a supply-chain risk
“He was trying to protect anthropic to his credit. He was like, don't do, don't call him a supply chain risk. That's bad for the industry. Let me, maybe I can negotiate terms that they'll find acceptable.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic became deeply embedded in military workflows
“The number one reason we were having this conversation at all is because they were deeply embedded.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic's AI coding lead will disappear in 12 months
“I believe in 12 months codex is not going to be close.”
Chamath: Software company's AI costs tripled since November 2025
“Our costs have more than tripled since November of 25. Between the inference cost that we pay AWS, which is ginormous, between our cost with cursor, between anthropic, we are just spending millions.”
Chamath: AT-NID deprecated Cursor due to excessive token costs
“So one of the things we had to do was just, we had to say, guys, you got to deprecate Cursor because you're just wrapping quad code and charging us way too much for these tokens.”
Michael: Defense contractors are banned from using Anthropic for fighter jets
“Boeing wants to use it to build fighter jets. I can't have that because I don't trust what the outputs may be because they're so wedded to their own policy preferences.”
Michael: Pentagon feared Anthropic would shut off military systems during crises
“It was really the, you worry, I worried about them shutting off our system at a moment of need or them messing with our system at a moment of need. Those were, we were scared.”
Emil Michael: Tech vendors shouldn't sell to Defense Department if objecting to military use
“If you don't want your stuff to be used for department of war stuff, you shouldn't be selling to the department of war.”
Chamath: Anthropic lost Republicans and will lose progressive Democrats too
“It's clear that Anthropic just lost all the Republicans, but I think that if they think that they have the Democrats, that's fleeting as well, because I think progressive Democrats Fundamentally just hate Silicon Valley and technology. And so there's no way th…”
Friedberg: Anthropic is no longer worth $350 billion
“I don't think that company's worth three hundred fifty billion anymore.”
Friedberg: Anthropic will eventually reach a $1.5 trillion market cap
“I think Anthropic is a trillion five market cap at the end of the day. Unless this blows them up.”
Friedberg: Google will replicate Anthropic Cowork within 90 days
“I will also say that it's only going to take 90 days for Google to flip on a virtual version of co-work.”
Friedberg: Google will sweep market after integrating co-work into G Suite
“And once Google, like, has this integrated with G Suite and you have a virtual hosted version of co-work, I think Google sweeps the market with this same competitor.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic will be excluded from Pentagon AI contracts under current posture
“And Throbic's not going to be one of them if they continue sort of with their sort of posture.”
Emil Michael: Google holds long-term AI advantage due to owned cloud infrastructure
“I do think Google has a long-term strategic advantage, not because, not only because of their consumer thing, but because they have their own cloud. So between them, they don't have the margin on top of the cloud that Anthropical have to pass on, so it's an in…”
Michael: Trump did not instruct Pentagon to drop Anthropic over donations
“It's a criticism on me because it's not like Trump, President Trump dipped in and he's like, hey, Emil, by the way, those guys didn't get me any money. You can't use them anymore.”
Michael: Pentagon spent three months negotiating standards with Anthropic before dropping them
“And I was trying to work with them. Why would I spend three months trying to negotiate with them to get to a symbol standard if I would've just said, okay, guys, you're out.”
Chamath: Anthropic's refusal to work with Department of War will be its worst decision
“It's going to turn out to be the stupidest decision.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called Donald Trump a 'wannabe dictator'
“You called president Trump and your 5000 word essay on Friday, a wannabe dictator. You're gonna have to apologize to more people than just me.”
Emil Michael: DoD Office of Strategic Capital has $200B in lending authority
“I have the office of strategic capital, which has two hundred billion in lending authority.”
Emil Michael: Defense battery supply and lithium sources are totally outsourced to China
“Batteries are totally outsourced both technologically and from lithium to China.”
Emil Michael: US military is fighting with 1980s Cold War weapons
“We're fighting with 1980 cold war weapons. Right. And not modern weapons.”
Emil Michael: Defense tech venture capital is up 3x over last year
“There's more defense tech venture capital than ever by, you know, three X more than last year.”
Emil Michael: Modern warfare is shifting from $20B carriers to low-cost attritable systems
“Generally I do think warfare is going from big carrier ships that cost twenty billion dollars and a decade and a half to build To mass attributable, low cost things.”
Emil Michael: Legacy defense primes stay dominant by mastering government bureaucracy
“One of the reasons the primes are such a small number, it's not the only, but it's one, is they learn how to contract with the government. They learn how to go through the bureaucracy, and that became a competitive advantage.”
Emil Michael: DARPA is using synthetic biology to extract critical minerals
“One of the things that they're working on that's public is they're trying to use biology to synthesize critical minerals.”