Nov 25, 2020 · 1h 21m · allin
E13: SPACsgiving Special! Vaccine news, innovation vs regulation, fixing higher ed, challenge trials
Jason Calacanis · 21m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 19m spoken David Friedberg · 17m spoken David Sacks · 15m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this Thanksgiving 'SPACsgiving' episode of the All-In Podcast, the hosts discuss MetroMile's SPAC announcement, groundbreaking COVID-19 mRNA vaccine developments, regulatory reform, and post-election political transitions while sharing personal reflections on gratitude.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.1 Guest teaching 3.7 Guest disagreement 2.0 The hosts pushing back 2.3
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 18:01 Chamath rejects framing on Trump administration competency
Chamath forcefully rejects attributing Warp Speed's success directly to Trump, arguing that career policy wonks succeeded specifically because they operated out of the administration's usual political spotlight.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 28:37 JCal challenges scientific ethics objections to challenge trialsJCal pushes back against the scientific establishment's reluctance to pay participants for vaccine challenge trials, pointing out society allows paid voluntary risk in the military and space exploration.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 22:09 Friedberg delivers scientific overview of mRNA platformFriedberg provides a detailed explanation of mRNA cellular mechanics, ribosomes, and protein translation, educating the co-hosts on why mRNA represents a paradigm shift over traditional vaccines.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:15:57 Chamath demonstrates energy economics driving Middle East peaceChamath displays macro expertise by connecting clean energy technological advances directly to foreign policy shifts, arguing solar and wind cost curves forced Middle East oil economies into peace agreements.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How MetroMile & Pay-Per-Mile Auto Insurance Works | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | JCal asks clarifying questions about MetroMile's usage-based insurance model while Friedberg details how telematics, OBD ports, and OEM data feeds enable pay-per-mile savings. | |
| Demystifying PIPEs & The Besties Deal Banter | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath breaks down the mechanics of a PIPE transaction for public SPACs, followed by playful banter among the hosts about being excluded from the allocation. | |
| Celebrating Sacks' Unicorn S-1s & Angel Portfolio Realities | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Sacks clarifies his early-stage angel checks versus leading institutional rounds in recent S-1 filings like Addepar and Houzz. | |
| COVID Vaccine Breakthroughs & Operation Warp Speed Analysis | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | The hosts analyze Operation Warp Speed's success and timeline, with Sacks discussing Moncef Slaoui's decision to delay trials for minority inclusion and Chamath pointing out the project succeeded because policy wonks were insulated from typical political theater. | |
| The Science of mRNA & Future Vaccine Manufacturing | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg educates the group on mRNA technology, explaining cellular protein synthesis via ribosomes and why this platform accelerates future vaccine development. | |
| Debating Challenge Trials, Regulation, & FDA Overreach | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | JCal challenges the bioethical resistance to human challenge trials, leading to a discussion on regulatory capture, drug testing delays, and nanny-state contradictions. | |
| Permissionless Innovation & Reforming the Regulatory State | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Sacks advocates for permissionless innovation in tech while Chamath praises SEC Chairman Jay Clayton for modernizing investor accreditation rules. | |
| Fixing Higher Education: ISAs vs. Traditional College Degrees | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | The hosts critique traditional higher education debt and advocate for Income Share Agreements (ISAs) and vocational training as superior alignment mechanisms. | |
| Thanksgiving Opening and Updating Emotion Chips | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Sacks outlines how post-election legal challenges unravelled following Sidney Powell's conspiracy theories, leading to the formal GSA transition. | |
| Analyzing Joe Biden's Cabinet Appointments | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Chamath argues that falling renewable energy costs forced Middle Eastern nations to negotiate peace deals as oil revenues decline, followed by personal reflections on the pandemic. |
Statements from this episode (25)
Metromile customers save 47% on average compared to traditional insurers
“The average customer doesn't drive a lot with Metro Mile. They save 47% over what they were paying with like Geico or Progressive Reassurance.”
Friedberg: 70% of auto insurance pricing variance stems from mileage
“70% of the price difference you get in auto insurance is from the number of miles you drive and only 30% is really in this variance around behavior.”
Palihapitiya: Next-gen insurance is where ML reaches massive scale
“These next generation insurance companies to me are so interesting because it's probably where you're going to see machine learning be used at just massive, massive scale because you're just going to reprice risk and make it, as David said, much more dynamic.”
Sacks: Non-board angel investors only need to respond when asked
“If you're not on the board, your obligation is basically to respond when somebody asks you for something.”
Sacks: Moderna vaccine would have released before election without trial delay
“If it weren't for those three weeks, Moderna's vaccine would have happened before Pfizer, and it would have come out about a week before the election.”
Calacanis: COVID-19 pandemic will end and travel resume by summer 2021
“This is going to be over. We're going to be at conferences or going traveling to Europe or whatever it is next summer”
Friedberg: Regulatory capture in pharmaceuticals drives rigid US drug trial rules
“I would argue to some extent that the regulatory capture associated with the profiteering that happens on the back end In pharmaceuticals has in large part driven the structure around risk taking in in drug trials particularly in the US.”
Chamath: The contract research organization industry acts as an R&D retardant
“The drug infrastructure here has created, to your point, because of regulation, the entire you know, CRO industry, which is a multi, multi-billion dollar Industry, which basically is essentially a retardant of R and D velocity, right? It's entire job is to slo…”
Sacks: Rapid internet innovation is driven by permissionless building
“The reason why innovations happen so fast on the internet is because of, you know, one word, permissionless, right? Permissionless innovation. Nobody who has an idea for a startup needs to go get permission from someone in the government, you know, repeatedly.”
Calacanis: SEC announced gig companies can give workers 15% equity compensation
“Today the SEC announced that they will allow gig working companies to give stock to employees as part of their compensation, up to 15% of their compensation.”
Chamath: SEC Chairman Jay Clayton was one of Trump's best appointees
“I actually think one of the best Trump appointees has been Jay Clayton. And I actually think Jay Clayton has done an incredibly good job.”
Chamath: Biden administration will continue deregulation in SEC, FCC, and Medicare
“I think what's going to happen is you're, I think you're going to continue to see deregulation in areas that are benign and non-controversial. So I think the SEC the FCC, I think all of these places you'll see movement. I think you'll probably actually see a l…”
Chamath: Teachers unions will dominate policy unless disrupted by a startup
“You cannot get elected without the teachers, and so unless there is a startup that completely disrupts teacher pay and teacher compensation then the public school teachers unions will continue to dominate a lot of the federal and state policy.”
Chamath: Barber licensing is stricter than regulating autonomous AI software engineers
“You don't need a license to be the engineer that writes the machine learning code that either drives a car autonomously or that, you know helps propel disinformation in a social network, but you do need to have a license to give someone a buzz cut.”
Sacks: Successful ISAs will strip practical trades away from traditional universities
“I think where this goes, if these ISAs are successful, is that every trade that's valuable will get its own ISA-type school, and then that gets peeled out of a university education.”
Chamath: College degrees are a scam enriching university administrators and endowments
“The piece of paper is really just a scam That allows, you know, administrators to basically pay themselves millions of dollars and or run an asset management business as a, the Trojan horse of that purpose.”
Sacks prefers investing in ISA infrastructure over individual ISA trade schools
“The ISA as a service idea is a brilliant idea. I would invest in that. I like that idea as an investment way better than running one of these schools, you know, that that that's basically issuing the ISIS themselves.”
Friedberg: True indentured servitude is $250k in non-dischargeable student debt
“Indentured servitude is having a 250,000 dollar debt that you've got to pay down and you can never get rid of in bankruptcy for the rest of your life.”
Sacks: Rudy Giuliani won 1 out of 36 election lawsuit rulings
“I think Rudy was like one in 35, meaning I think he won one ruling and lost 35.”
Sacks: US economy will bounce back strongly in 2021 due to vaccines
“If I do think the economy is going to bounce back really strong next year because of the vaccines, right? I think you've got to say that if these vaccines and COVID in the next three, four, five months, 20, 21 is going to be a great year.”
Friedberg endorses Janet Yellen for Treasury Secretary
“Janet Yellen for Treasury Secretary is great.”
Friedberg claims 30% of US dollars in circulation were printed in six months
“We printed 30% of the US dollars in circulation in the last six months, and everyone's cheering that the Dow is at 30,000.”
Chamath praises Antony Blinken as Secretary of State pick
“Tony Blinken, friend of a couple of ours for Secretary of State, he's a star.”