Apr 17, 2021 · 1h 18m · allin
E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner · 19m spoken David Sacks · 15m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 14m spoken David Friedberg · 10m spoken Jason Calacanis · 10m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of The All-In Podcast, guest co-host Brad Gerstner joins the panel to analyze Coinbase's direct listing, macroeconomic shifts impacting tech valuations, unionization trends, and state-level policy during COVID-19. Together, the group explores financial market innovations alongside critical discussions on public policy, institutional trust, and market-driven solutions for economic inclusion.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 71.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.9 Guest teaching 3.8 Guest disagreement 2.2 The hosts pushing back 2.4
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:12:56 Brad calling out political grandstanding
Brad forcefully rejects Senator Josh Hawley's tech antitrust proposal, calling political grandstanding on both sides of the aisle disgusting and out-of-touch with practical solutions.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 37:17 Chamath pushing back on total labor union rejectionChamath refuses to accept the framing that labor unions are entirely obsolete, pushing back by insisting that modern workers need a data-driven Union 2.0 rather than outdated dues-collecting apparatuses.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:30 Brad breaking down Grab's deconstructed IPO costsBrad educates the hosts on how Grab eliminated traditional banking commissions and indirect underpricing dilution to preserve over $1 billion for existing shareholders and employees.
The host holds their own ▶ 56:30 Sacks presenting empirical CA vs FL COVID death statisticsSacks demonstrates sharp domain knowledge by citing state-by-state per capita COVID death data showing virtually identical outcomes between California and Florida despite opposite lockdown policies.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Welcome and Introductions with Guest Brad Gerstner | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | The segment consists of lightweight host introductions and humorous banter regarding Brad Gerstner filling in for Chamath. Brad offers pleasantries and praises Chamath's early work pioneering SPAC innovation. | |
| Coinbase Direct Listing, Lockups, and Capital Structure | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Chamath and Brad analyze the mechanics of Coinbase's direct listing and criticize traditional IPO lockups as regressive taxes on long-serving employees. Brad explains how Grab deconstructed the IPO process to save over a billion dollars in indirect underpricing costs while selecting long-term cap table partners. | |
| Coinbase Culture Wars and the 'Governor Sacks' Recall Speculation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Sacks defends Brian Armstrong's workplace political discussion ban at Coinbase and fields teasing from co-hosts about launching a California gubernatorial run. Prompted by Brad, Sacks lays out his position demanding that public school teachers report in-person full-time in the fall. | |
| Macro Market Rotation, Rate Hikes, and Private Valuations | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | Chamath asks Brad for color commentary on macroeconomic factor rotations, interest rate hikes, and private tech valuations. Brad details how rising 10-year Treasury yields compress long-duration tech multiples and explains why public market price discovery will eventually discipline high private valuations. | |
| Andreessen's Coinbase Win, Crypto Conviction, and Bezos's Shareholder Letter | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | The panel discusses Andreessen Horowitz's massive Coinbase profits and high-conviction secondary share purchases during the crypto bear market. Brad shares a candid personal mistake passing on early Bitcoin opportunities due to short-term confirmation bias. | |
| Amazon Union Vote, Public vs. Private Sector Labor, and Media Unionization | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | Following the rejected Amazon union vote in Alabama, Brad frames the result as a defense of free-market capitalism. Chamath pushes back on dismissing unions entirely, arguing traditional union models are broken and need a data-driven Union 2.0 framework. | |
| Discussion on Labor Unions, Capitalism, and Market Dynamics | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Brad rejects the false dichotomy between pure Randian capitalism and state intervention. Sacks and Friedberg lay out the core structural differences between private sector labor unions and captured public sector unions operating without market mechanisms. | |
| Media Double Standards on Foreign Policy and Border Issues | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Jason and Sacks criticize media coverage inconsistency when reporting on foreign policy and immigration under different presidential administrations. Sacks references side-by-side headline comparisons of the Afghanistan troop drawdown to highlight media bias. | |
| Federalism, State Competition, and Empirical Analysis of COVID Lockdowns | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Brad describes federalism as a real-time policy test driving economic migration across states. Sacks cites per capita COVID death rate statistics demonstrating virtually identical outcomes between heavily locked-down California and open Florida. | |
| Regulatory Risk Assessment, CDC Guidance, and Managing Non-Zero Risk | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Chamath and Sacks criticize federal public health agencies for pausing the Johnson & Johnson vaccine over extremely rare blood clot risks. Friedberg provides biological context explaining why fully vaccinated individuals present negligible transmission risk. | |
| Institutional Breakdown, Decentralization, and the Danger of Mob Rule | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Chamath argues regulatory agencies suffer from broken internal incentives detached from public benefit. Friedberg warns that institutional decay risks replacing structured governance with unconstrained mob rule across markets and social institutions. | |
| Analysis of Josh Hawley's Tech Antitrust Proposal | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Sacks and Brad evaluate Senator Josh Hawley's proposal to ban corporate acquisitions by companies exceeding $100B in market cap. Sacks argues the bill is blunt performative legislation, while Brad strongly condemns politicians for grandstanding rather than offering pragmatic solutions. | |
| Proposal for 'Invest America' Baby Bonds Private Initiative | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Brad proposes that tech leaders bypass Washington by privately seeding an 'Invest America' initiative to provide $2,000 investment accounts to children. Chamath enthusiastically agrees to participate and fund the initiative. |
Statements from this episode (30)
Gerstner: Traditional IPO system is Byzantine and fails to serve founders
“There's been a system that is pretty Byzantine that wasn't serving the founders who we all you know, care deeply about.”
Chamath: LPs receiving stock from direct listings should sell immediately
“In general, I think if a direct listing happens, when you get distributed the stock, you should probably sell it right away.”
Chamath: Traditional IPO lockups act as a regressive tax on employees
“I think lockups are really unfair because they, they're attacks on the people that have been there the longest, which are the employees. So, you know, the idea that somebody that comes in at the absolute last minute You know, Brad and I have done a bunch of IP…”
Gerstner: Nearly one-third of Grab's share base unlocked for day-one trading
“So we have almost a third of the entire share base of the company that is available for sale on day one.”
Sacks: Coinbase reached $85B valuation despite political ban and NYT refusal
“Apparently, Coinbase's ban on politics in the workplace and their refusal to submit to New York Times interviews did not prevent them from creating an eighty-five billion dollar company.”
Sacks: California has 7 million unused COVID vaccine doses
“We've got seven million unused doses sitting on the shelf in California because of all of his crazy eligibility requirements.”
Sacks: COVID will end and economy boom by CA recall election
“By the time we actually get around to the recall, which will be in about five or six months the recall election, you know, the economy's going to be booming again. COVID's going to be over. People will probably forget.”
Gerstner: Every 1% Treasury yield hike causes 10-20% growth multiple drawdown
“For every one percent move in the tenure, you've got a 10 to a 20% drawdown in growth multiples.”
Gerstner: Growth equity multiples face an additional 10-20% drawdown
“I suspect that there's another 10 to 20% to go, right? For a 10 year that's going to be sitting here at one eight.”
Gerstner: Major public buy-side managers are de-leveraging growth assets
“I can tell you they're all de-leveraging growth. They are not adding. They're not looking to add dollars to growth.”
Sacks: Andreessen Horowitz generated about $20B in returns on Coinbase
“Andresa, but Andresa made like twenty billion of returns, of which, you know, they're probably getting 25, 30%. So they made the most money.”
Calacanis: Targeting 10% to 15% ownership in fund's winning investments
“And now my position is I am going super pro rata in our winners. So not only holding winners, I'm trying to get to 10, 15% ownership in these companies.”
Chamath: Average employee tenure is under 3.5 years at Uber, Tesla, Google
“The average tenure at Uber is 1.8 years. The average tenure at Tesla is 2.1 years. The average tenure at Google is 3.2 years.”
Chamath: Traditional labor unions are no longer effective at collective bargaining
“Unions are not effective anymore in collective bargaining. They are not. They don't have any data. They don't have any facts. They're not. They don't have any power, but they're not set up to win.”
Calacanis: Media company unionization controls short-term costs but kills long-term excellence
“In the short term, it controls costs. In the long term, it kills excellence.”
Sacks: Public sector unions lack market discipline due to political donor conflict
“Public sector unions are completely different, right? Because when the teachers union goes to negotiate, who are they negotiating with? They're negotiating with Gavin Newsom, and the teachers union is his biggest contributor. So who has an incentive to oppose …”
Friedberg: Government-mandated spending drives inflation in healthcare and education
“It's happened with everything that we've seen inflate in this country. Education, healthcare is all because it's a government mandated service.”
Gerstner: US experiencing largest economic migration in its history
“We have the largest economic migration in the history of this country. Occurring right now.”
Gerstner: California holds contempt for capitalism and innovation
“I would contend the even bigger issue is the contempt for capitalism. The contempt for entrepreneurialism and innovation that exists in California.”
Sacks: Data shows state lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 death rates
“There's really no correlation between death rates for COVID per capita and the severity of lockdowns. Basically, the data shows that lockdowns don't have an impact on a state's success in battling COVID.”
Sacks: Vaccine polling dropped 15 points after J&J pause
“So in the wake of that, the, with the polling on vaccines went down by like 15 points.”
Sacks: There is no reason to wear a mask once vaccinated
“Once you get vaccinated, there's no reason to wear a mask.”
Friedberg: US vaccination rate will cap at 60% to 65%
“I think 60% probably. Yeah. Yeah. I would guess, 6060, 65%.”
Friedberg: COVID-19 will persist in the US for years and never hit zero
“And because some number of people will continue to have COVID, we're going to have COVID in the United States for years to come. It is not going to go to zero.”
David Friedberg: Institutions function like organisms driven to endlessly expand
“Institutions to me are like any living organism. They want to grow. And so, you know, every government wants to add laws, spend more money, grow its budget. Every company wants to have more power, grow its top line. Even every university, Harvard's endowment w…”
David Friedberg: The alternative to institutions is destabilizing mob rule
“What I'm most concerned about is the absolute alternative to an institution is a mob rule. And a mob rule, as we've seen, where you get cancel culture and you get you know, GameStop going through the roof and you get trial before before without a jury and tria…”
Sacks: Hawley's $100B acquisition ban bill is not a serious proposal
“I don't think this bill is a serious proposal to become law.”
Sacks: Banning M&A exits will hurt venture returns and reduce risk capital
“So if you take M&A off the table, you are basically denying a lot of attractive exits for risk capital, and that's going to ultimately hurt the returns for risk capital and lead to less of it.”