Jul 9, 2021 · 1h 10m · allin
E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jason Calacanis · 17m spoken David Sacks · 17m spoken David Friedberg · 14m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 12m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In Episode 39 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts analyze the severe West Coast megadrought, clean energy solutions, California political governance, San Francisco's rising crime rates and District Attorney controversies, and public health updates regarding the COVID-19 Delta variant.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.9 Guest teaching 5.3 Guest disagreement 4.3 The hosts pushing back 3.3
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 54:52 Friedberg mocks Jason's DA intimidation claims
Friedberg dismisses Jason's claim that the DA's inquiry was political retaliation, sarcastically telling him to 'stop committing fraud' and suggesting it was a routine investigation.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 23:04 Jason rejects Friedberg's multi-decade timeline for nuclear energyJason refuses Friedberg's framing that nuclear power is too slow to solve current crises, aggressively arguing that China builds plants in two years and demanding bold leadership.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 36:39 Friedberg traces the historical evolution of Disney's TomorrowlandFriedberg educates the panel on how cultural sentiment shifted from post-WWII technological optimism to fear by illustrating how Disney changed its attraction themes in the 1970s.
The host holds their own ▶ 16:34 Chamath details US Bureau of Reclamation thresholds and water aquifersChamath demonstrates expertise by citing exact Lake Mead water deficit metrics, USBR tier 1 shortage triggers, and Southern California's untapped groundwater reservoir.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedberg's Analysis on the West Coast Megadrought | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Friedberg delivers a detailed breakdown of the California megadrought, citing scientific papers, snowpack levels at zero percent, and a 70% drop in hydroelectric power. The other hosts listen with minimal interruption while Friedberg outlines air quality risks and disaster readiness. | |
| Recall Politics, Infrastructure Solutions, and Crisis Readiness | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | Jason suggests desalination plants as a solution, but Friedberg clarifies that desal does not solve wildfire smoke or lost hydroelectric output. Friedberg pushes back on quick fixes, insisting on immediate community readiness and emergency press briefings. | |
| The Science of Drought and Water Rights Realities | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Chamath explains the soil evaporation feedback loop and its threat to global food security. The conversation remains collaborative as the hosts discuss the political difficulty of private water rights ownership. | |
| California Policy Management and the Newsom Recall | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | Sacks critiques Gavin Newsom's forest management statistics, while Chamath explains the US Bureau of Reclamation's water shortage thresholds for Lake Mead. When Friedberg calls nuclear power a 20-year project, Jason aggressively pushes back by citing China's rapid construction timelines. | |
| Nuclear Energy Debates and Environmental Policy Hypocrisy | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | Chamath argues that anti-nuclear hysteria after Three Mile Island was as irrational as banning aviation after two plane crashes. He highlights the dirty environmental impacts of rare earth mining for solar batteries, reframing progressive energy policies. | |
| Vetocracy, Innovation Aversion, and the Psychology of Cynicism | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | Chamath cites a study linking cynicism to lower IQ and earnings, while Friedberg offers a historical thesis on Disney's Tomorrowland rides to explain society's shift from tech optimism to tech aversion. The exchange showcases deep analytical reframing without hostility. | |
| Source Hydro-Panels and Personal Water Stories | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Jason brings up Source hydro-panels, and Chamath explains how the technology extracts ambient moisture from atmospheric air. The group keeps the discussion light with personal anecdotes about water preferences. | |
| San Francisco Crime Crisis and Manipulated Statistics | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | Sacks accuses the SF DA's office of 'juking the stats' by downgrading home invasions to petty larceny to claim falling crime rates. Jason supports the point by noting major retail chain closures across the city. | |
| SF DA Office Twitter Controversy and Recall Donation | 6 | 3 | 7 | 3 | Sacks condemns a DA policy advisor for comparing a concerned citizen's tweet to KKK propaganda. Sacks reveals he donated $50,000 to the DA recall effort specifically in response to this official's actions. | |
| Jason Calacanis Reveals DA Office Intimidation Attempt | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | Jason discloses that the DA's office contacted him regarding a portfolio startup shortly after he launched a journalism fund covering the DA. Friedberg mockingly suggests it might just be a routine investigation, prompting Jason to forcefully defend his claim of intimidation. | |
| The Gothamization and Orwellianization of San Francisco | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | Sacks synthesizes the situation into two trends: the 'Gothamization' of unpunished crime and the 'Orwellianization' of political propaganda and donor protection in San Francisco. | |
| Jason Calacanis Announces Plan to Leave California | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | After Jason announces plans to leave California, the group analyzes Israeli Pfizer efficacy data regarding the Delta variant. Friedberg explains how unvaccinated populations serve as evolutionary incubators for viral mutations. |
Statements from this episode (31)
Friedberg: Western North America faces unprecedented 500-year megadrought
“North America, particularly the western half of North America is in this, you know, mega drought that we haven't seen in, you know, 500 plus years.”
Friedberg: California snowpack hit zero percent statewide by June 1
“Snowpack level in California reached zero percent throughout the entire state by June first. That has never happened before.”
Friedberg: British Columbia temperatures hit historic high above 120 degrees
“Temperatures in British Columbia, you guys know, reached over a 120 degrees for several days in a row last week, which has never been seen in history in British Columbia.”
Friedberg: California hydroelectric power is down 70% compared to 2019
“Hydroelectric power is down by 70% in the state of California over where we were in 2019.”
Calacanis: Israel charges 3x more for water and has surplus per capita
“Israel, correct me if I'm wrong, is now they charge three times as much for water than we do. So people take water seriously, and they actually monitor their water usage, and they have desalinization, and they have more water than they need per capita.”
Friedberg: Desalination cannot resolve drought-driven hydroelectric energy shortages
“Desal plants don't solve the problem of hydroelectric plants, which requires snowpack to melt to get rivers to run to turn those turbines to generate electricity for the state.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: Western US soil moisture is in lowest historical percentile
“The Western half of the United States is in the first percentile of soil moisture, looking back over many, many decades.”
Chamath: Severe global drought will force self-sufficient nations to import food
“There are many countries there that are actually self sufficient, which will then no longer be will have to import food”
Chamath: Social Capital explored acquiring water rights to sell to states
“I've been looking at water investing for a while. There's a real problem, which is, you know, when I looked at this my team found some incredibly interesting opportunities, largely it evolves around owning water rights. Right. And then basically selling them b…”
Sacks: Newsom falsely claimed 90k treated acres versus 11k actual
“Newsom was recently caught in a lie saying that, you know, they had basically treated 90,000 acres. This is what this article I'll put in the chat said. In reality, that only really treated about 11,000 acres.”
Friedberg: Agriculture accounts for 90% of California water usage
“90% of water use in California is associated with ag.”
Calacanis: I am voting Republican in the California recall election
“I'm voting Republican just to create a counterbalance.”
Calacanis: Current climate problems stem from failing to invest in nuclear energy
“And let's be honest, a lot of the climate change problems we have today, we would not have if we had invested in nuclear.”
Chamath: Germany would be better off if it maintained nuclear power
“If they had just stayed the course on nuclear, they would be in a much better place.”
Chamath: Nuclear energy will get bogged down in litigation and bureaucracy
“The very scary thing about nuclear is despite all of the progress, It will get bogged down in litigation and bureaucracy.”
Chamath: Study shows cynicism correlates with lower IQ and earnings
“Cynicism is associated with lower IQ, lower literacy, lower numeracy, and lower earnings. The idea of cynical individuals being more competent Appears to be a widespread, yet largely illusory lie.”
Chamath: Governments will use eminent domain to seize private water rights
“For water, the folks that own water rights, I think that this is going to be like an eminent domain issue where the government is at some point just going to say, sorry, need it back. It's mine.”
Friedberg: Humans perceive relative changes rather than absolute baseline abundance
“The abundance that technology delivers to humans, because humans are only programmed to recognize change. They're not programmed to recognize absolutes.”
Calacanis funds journalist $60k to cover San Francisco DA's office
“The 60,000 dollars we raised from the GoFundMe is going to go to her to cover the DA's office for the next six to 12 months in a newsletter website.”
Sacks: San Francisco home burglaries are up roughly 50% year-over-year
“Home burglaries are up by some gargantuan amount, like 50% year over year.”
Sacks: DA official's attack on concerned resident is an abuse of power
“It's I think an abuse of power for someone in the DA's office to go after and attack a concerned citizen like this.”
Sacks: I donated an additional $50,000 to the Chesa Boudin recall
“I donate another 50,000 dollars to the recall chasing campaign.”
Calacanis: San Francisco DA's office investigated one of my portfolio startups
“The DA's office. You know what they contacted me about? They were investigating a startup that I had invested in. I won't say which one. And they wanted to interview me about my involvement with that startup because that startup had some complaint from a downs…”
Sacks: Chesa Boudin has not successfully prosecuted a single murder trial
“Listen, Chesa has not had time. He's almost two years in office now, and he has not had time to successfully prosecute one murder trial, not one, but his office has time to run down whatever they were trying to run down with J-Cal.”
Sacks: Chesa Boudin's top donor is Chris Larsen, currently under SEC indictment
“Even actually the biggest contributor to Chesa right now is a guy who's under SEC indictment for the Ripple scandal.”
Calacanis: San Francisco retail thefts are driven by organized gangs, not poverty
“These are organized gangs that are doing this. This has been proven. This is not a poverty issue. These are not poor people who are stealing bread for their families or trying to make their rent. It's organized gangs.”
Calacanis announces he is moving to Texas or Florida
“I'm moving to Texas or to Florida. I'm making the announcement now.”
Calacanis predicts California will suffer a decade-long decline
“I mean, I think California is my position right now is California is going to be on a decade long slide”
Calacanis plans to invest in 100-200 startups yearly until retiring at 60
“I decided I'm 50. I decided I'm going to go to 60 and then try to invest in a hundred to 200 companies a year for 10 years and then I'm done.”