Nov 13, 2021 · 1h 32m · allin
E55: Valuing crypto projects, Rivian worth $100B+, inflation: causes and corrections and more
David Sacks · 23m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 23m spoken Jason Calacanis · 19m spoken David Friedberg · 14m spoken
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In Episode 55 of the All-In Podcast, hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg examine speculative crypto and EV market valuations, dissect mounting US inflation and Federal Reserve policy dilemmas, and evaluate corporate capital allocation strategies across major tech giants.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.4 Guest teaching 3.2 Guest disagreement 3.4 The hosts pushing back 3.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 34:50 Chamath confronts Jason over Rivian valuation
Chamath directly attacks Jason's critique of Rivian's valuation as superficial analysis, comparing Jason's views to early Tesla shorts.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 40:10 CNBC anchor pressing market commentator on UpstartThe CNBC anchor repeatedly refuses to let the guest dodge when asked what Upstart actually does after recommending the stock.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 40:10 Market guest exposed on Upstart core businessThe guest commentator on CNBC is completely exposed when asked a basic question about Upstart's business model, claiming audio issues when caught unprepared.
The host holds their own ▶ 55:33 Sacks details macroeconomic debt constraints on the FedSacks demonstrates deep macroeconomic knowledge explaining how $30T in short-duration federal debt prevents the Fed from raising interest rates like Paul Volcker.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banter and Teasing Before the Show | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Casual opening banter and light teasing among co-hosts without substantive economic debate or technical expertise. | |
| COVID Booster Shots, NFL Controversies, and NBA Talk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Conversational discussion covering personal vaccine booster experiences and brief sports news, maintaining a relaxed group dynamic. | |
| Addressing the Solana 'Pump and Dump' Conspiracy Rumors | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Sacks details Kraft's early backing of Multicoin's Solana investment to address internet conspiracy theories alleging a VC pump-and-dump scheme. | |
| Valuing Crypto Projects and Macro Market Dynamics | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Chamath and Sacks analyze crypto fundamentals, comparing developer activity and transaction efficiency on Solana versus Ethereum. | |
| Rivian's $120B+ IPO Valuation and Investor Responsibility | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | The co-hosts evaluate Rivian's post-IPO valuation, emphasizing the importance of critical thinking over following podcast investment tips. | |
| Productive vs. Speculative Assets and Personal Underwriting | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg defines his rule of investing strictly in productive cash-generating assets, while Chamath candidly shares losses from underperforming SPAC PIPEs. | |
| Debate on EV Valuations and Public Market Pricing | 8 | 4 | 7 | 7 | Chamath forcefully rejects Jason's skepticism of Rivian's valuation, calling Jason's analysis superficial and comparable to early Tesla shorts. | |
| Dissecting CNBC's Upstart Interview and Media Agendas | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | The hosts play a viral CNBC clip where guest Mark cannot answer what Upstart does, using it to highlight media agendas and lack of research. | |
| October Inflation Surge and Replaying Episode 32 Predictions | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Examining 6.2% CPI inflation data, Sacks plays a previous clip from Episode 32 to prove his earlier predictions about fiscal policy were correct. | |
| Inflation Control Options and the Geopolitical Conflict Hypothesis | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | Friedberg lists macroeconomic options to curb inflation and posits a controversial theory that geopolitical conflict can act as economic stimulus. | |
| First Principles of Inflation, Money Printing, and Policy Warnings | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | Sacks explains inflation from first principles as excess money chasing scarce goods, pushing back against Friedberg's war stimulus framing. | |
| Inflation Spirals, Paul Volcker, National Debt, and MMT | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Sacks warns of 1970s-style inflationary spirals and explains why the current $30T national debt limits the Federal Reserve's ability to raise rates like Volcker did. | |
| CPI Measurement Changes, Asset Allocation, and Company Formation | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Chamath notes post-1980 CPI metric changes, while Jason and Friedberg discuss company formation as an optimal wealth generation path during inflation. | |
| Xi Jinping's Historic Status, Taiwan Risk, and Naval Power | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | The hosts analyze Xi Jinping consolidating lifetime leadership in China, evaluating risks surrounding Taiwan and global naval force comparisons. | |
| The Unwinding of Conglomerates: GE, J&J, and Capital Allocation | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Friedberg and Chamath break down why legacy conglomerates like GE and J&J are spinning off business units to unlock shareholder value. | |
| Corporate R&D vs. Stock Buybacks and Legacy Business Icons | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Chamath criticizes massive corporate stock buybacks over organic R&D, citing IBM's $132B buybacks during a decade of market cap stagnation. |
Statements from this episode (33)
Sacks: Craft Ventures holds indirect exposure to $1B in Solana
“Kraft is the beneficiary because we invest, we're the first investors in multi coin. We were kind of like their seed investor invested in there. We put in something like 40% of the money for their special opportunity fund. They were one of the first investors …”
Sacks: Solana's daily trading volume is around $3.5B notional
“The market for Solana is very deep, about three and a half billion notional is traded every day.”
Chamath: Musk and Bezos sold over $11B in stock in 2021
“Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have collectively sold more than eleven billion dollars of their holdings this year alone.”
Sacks: Craft Ventures has not sold its Solana holdings
“I can tell you right now, like this second, we are sitting on Solana that we have not sold.”
Calacanis: Rivian reached $120B valuation with only 148 vehicles delivered
“They've sold a 148 cars to their employees. It's worth a 120 billion dollars.”
Sacks: Solana could flip Ethereum even during a crypto bust
“So you could have a situation in which, for example, Solana flips ETH and yet still goes down in value because there's an overall bust cycle.”
Chamath: The two smartest men in the world are selling
“Everything is at all time highs. And the two smartest men in the world are selling.”
Friedberg: ICOs and NFTs are unproductive, speculative assets
“Every ICO, every NFT and the art market, right? These are examples of unproductive assets.”
Chamath: I am down 17% on $200M in 2021 PIPE deals
“Well, I'm technically up 19%, but that's really because of one deal. If I take that one deal out, which was a total outlier, I'm down 17% on about two hundred million dollars of investment.”
Calacanis: Rivian's realistic valuation is $20B, not $120B
“But I put them at twenty billion and people were giving a hard time about it. I said, I think that's actually the realistic valuation for this company.”
Friedberg: Low interest rates push market time horizons out 10-20 years
“But regardless, the market is clearly right now in in productive assets, businesses, the market is looking at a time horizon that it has never looked at before, which is making bets that are at 10 15, 20 years in the future. And that's because of the condition…”
Sacks: Pre-product unicorns always end in disappointment or fraud
“When a startup gets a billion-dollar-plus valuation without a product, invariably, it ends up somewhere between a disappointment and outright fraud.”
Calacanis: US CPI rose 6.2% in October 2021, highest jump since 1990
“The CPI, ah, has gone up 6.2% in October, highest jump in 31 years since 1990, according to the Wall Street Journal, fifth largest straight month, fifth straight month of inflation above five percent.”
Chamath: Teachers and firefighters are quitting to work at Amazon
“There are teachers That are leaving teaching to go work at an Amazon warehouse. There are firefighters that are quitting being a firefighter to go work at an Amazon warehouse because you make the same or more.”
Palihapitiya: Rising US inflation is the beginning of a persistent trend
“So I think that it's a it's this is the beginning of a persistence.”
Friedberg: Federal spending on healthcare and education causes runaway costs
“Anything the federal government spends money on like healthcare and education, the costs very quickly spiral out of control, super inefficient.”
Friedberg: High inflation makes the US more likely to escalate foreign tensions
“It's more likely that we would want to increase the tension when we're in an inflationary environment.”
Sacks: The Fed cannot aggressively hike rates because of massive federal debt
“There's going to be no Paul Volcker. Why? We can't afford to jack up rates because the federal government's debt is so much bigger than it used to be.”
Sacks: Average US government debt maturity is currently five years
“The average maturity of government debt right now is five years, okay?”
Chamath: Pre-1980 CPI formula shows worse inflation than current metrics
“If you go back to the original measurement it looks like inflation and CPI is much more pernicious than we would otherwise think if we just look at the new CPI that we started to look at as of 1980.”
Calacanis: Clubhouse valuation reached $4B with zero revenue
“Clubhouse went from a hundred million to four billion with no revenue.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Xi Jinping will rule China for life
“But it now looks like we'll be living with Xi Jinping until until, you know, he joins the afterworld. So he's a ruler for life of China, basically.”
David Sacks predicts Xi Jinping will seek to annex Taiwan
“What is the accomplishment that's going to really put him in that league, and you'd have to say it's the annexation of Taiwan. I mean, that's the thing that he must be looking to do before, you know, his time runs out.”
Friedberg: Activist-driven conglomerate breakups will boost stock prices 20% to 30%
“So I think it'll, it'll continue to, and you could probably go and pick a bunch of these conglomerates and you'll see the activist shareholders doing this. They'll, they'll, they'll buy a bunch of shares. They'll instigate and say, Hey, you guys should break u…”
Chamath: Corporate breakups are defensive reactions to poor returns or activist pressure
“I think it's very rare that these things happen on the offensive foot. I think it's typically a defensive maneuver that's driven by really poor returns over long periods of time or activist investors who want to push for value unlock.”
Chamath: Shareholder revolt forced PayPal to explicitly deny Pinterest acquisition
“PayPal was rumored to be buying Pinterest. And, you know, there was such an incredible shareholder revolt that they had to put out a press release saying we have absolutely no interest In acquiring Pinterest.”
Chamath: IBM spent $132B on buybacks while its market cap collapsed
“In the last, I think, 15 or 20 years, IBM's market cap has gone down to one hundred and thirteen billion. In the meantime, they've bought back one hundred and thirty two billion dollars of stock.”
Palihapitiya: Carl Icahn unlocked $250B in value by pushing eBay-PayPal split
“He unlocked a quarter trillion dollars of value.”
Sacks: Tim Cook won't retire until Apple launches AR glasses
“I think he doesn't want to retire until this comes out and he can see this is going to be his signature product, I think.”
Friedberg: Legacy companies pay 3x for outsourced R&D to get 1/10th return
“They're outsourcing R&D, and typically paying three times as much and typically getting one 10th in the return.”
Chamath: Bezos achieved a 42% ROIC reinvesting Amazon's free cash flow
“We calculated what Bezos is investment track record was, right? Because he basically took all his free cash flow and reinvested it in the business and you could measure what his return on invested capital was, and it was like, 42% and on a really big number on…”