Jan 29, 2022 · 1h 14m · allin
E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Chamath Palihapitiya · 18m spoken David Sacks · 17m spoken David Friedberg · 15m spoken Jason Calacanis · 13m spoken
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In Episode 65 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts analyze tech market drawdowns, Fed interest rate hikes, rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, $3B cellular rejuvenation funding at Altos Labs, and viral public drama involving Bolt, Stripe, and Y Combinator.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 7.6 Guest teaching 3.1 Guest disagreement 3.0 The hosts pushing back 3.6
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:35 Sacks vs Jason on humanitarian rhetoric
Sacks argues that humanitarian sentiment is weaponized by neocons to force interventions, prompting Jason to defend his personal beliefs as distinct from political rhetoric.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 58:08 Chamath rejects mega-seed funding thesisChamath strongly rejects Friedberg's justification of Altos Labs' $3B round, stating that massive upfront funding in tech/biotech has a historical zero percent success rate.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 18:05 Friedberg educates on historical NATO encirclementFriedberg provides a comprehensive breakdown of 30 years of US/NATO strategy in Eastern Europe, explaining how it acts defensively from Russia's perspective under a Monroe Doctrine framework.
The host holds their own ▶ 40:19 Chamath cites 1950-present Fed rate dataChamath demonstrates deep macroeconomic expertise by citing Federal Reserve cycle data from 1950 onward to show why stock markets typically rally after rate hikes begin.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Downturn, Investor Psychology & VC Pricing | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath and Sachs demonstrate solid domain expertise analyzing public vs. private portfolio dynamics and market psychology. The discussion is collaborative and reflective without major friction. | |
| Venture Capital Markup Dynamics & Paper Markups | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Friedberg and Chamath articulate the mechanics of paper markups, shadow portfolios, and 12-year venture liquidity cycles with high institutional expertise. | |
| Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, Ukraine & NATO Expansion | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Sacks and Friedberg present deep historical analysis on NATO expansion since the 1990s and German energy dependencies, providing contextual depth to the geopolitical crisis. | |
| Economic Drivers of Conflict & Foreign Policy Criticisms | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Sacks directly challenges Jason's framing of foreign policy, arguing that noble humanitarian rhetoric gets co-opted by the military-industrial complex to justify interventions. | |
| Earnings Report: Tesla, Microsoft, Netflix & Macro Fed Policies | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Chamath breaks down historical Fed tightening cycles dating back to 1950 and their relationship with initial market drawdowns and subsequent rallies. | |
| Fed Rate Hikes, Market Sentiment & Rebounding Growth Stocks | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg shares historical market precedent regarding TCV's 2011 PIPE investment in Netflix to illustrate value opportunities during growth stock sell-offs. | |
| Labor Market Realities, Supply Chain Disruptions & Recession Risks | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Friedberg offers operational insights on supply chain bottlenecks crippling steady-state companies, pushing back on Jason's optimistic economic metrics. | |
| Altos Labs Raises $3B for Cellular Rejuvenation | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Friedberg explains the scientific breakthrough behind Yamanaka cellular rejuvenation factors, while Chamath forcefully challenges the premise of raising a $3B mega seed round. | |
| Bolt Founder Attacks Stripe & Y Combinator | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | The group analyzes Ryan Breslau's attack on Stripe and YC, framing it as a PR strategy of punching up, while Jason calls out VC breach of confidential metrics. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Chamath reveals he holds no Bitcoin directly due to key security risks
“I've structured it so that I don't hold any Bitcoin personally myself because I don't want to have the pressure and the risk of keys and coins and wallets and this and that.”
Sachs: Crossover investors like Tiger and Coatue have paused venture spending
“What I've heard is that the crossover investors like Tiger, like Kotu, who are deploying all this money, they've really slowed down now. I think they're all kind of licking their wounds. And so like all of this money that was flooding into the venture space is…”
Chamath: Social Capital's private portfolio recorded $1B in paper gains in 2021
“But my private book was up a billion dollars. And I told the team, I'm like no, this is not real.”
Chamath Palihapitiya tracks a shadow portfolio at cost basis without paper markups
“One of the tactics that I started three years ago was I run my own shadow portfolio, where I don't take the marks and I just keep them at my cost basis.”
Friedberg asserts no public company has had 12 years of consistent stock gains
“Show me one public company that has had 12 years of consistent gain in its stock price. It doesn't exist.”
Friedberg: US is highly unlikely to send military forces to Ukraine
“I think to Sax's point, it's highly unlikely we're gonna end up sending military.”
Sachs: Adding Ukraine or Georgia to NATO provides no US security benefit
“We should not want to add Ukraine or Georgia to NATO. That would do nothing to enhance the security of the United States.”
Friedberg: Putin's behavior is rational and he seeks to avoid conflict
“His behavior is very rational in response to what's gone on for 30 years. And his requests are that he is feeling threatened and he is trying to avoid military conflict as much as he can.”
Palihapitiya: Stock markets have historically rallied when Fed rate hike cycles start
“From 1950 onwards today, every time the government has started to raise rates or the Federal Reserve has started to raise rates, the stock markets have actually rallied.”
Sachs: Fed will find it very hard to avoid a recession
“It's gonna be very hard for the Fed to engineer a soft landing here, where we don't trigger a recession in the process of stopping inflation.”
Friedberg: Most beaten-down growth stocks should never have gone public
“The businesses we all talk about generally growth stocks are down 60%, but maybe most of them shouldn't have even been public companies in the first place. Maybe they should have been speculative private investments, where more than two thirds of them were lik…”
Friedberg: GM delivered zero electric vehicles last quarter due to chip shortages
“You guys saw that GM didn't deliver a single friggin electric vehicle last quarter, because they couldn't actually get the chips that they needed to make cars.”
Friedberg: Supply chain issues will hit company revenues by 20-30%
“And what will happen is this quarter, next quarter, Businesses that you didn't realize and didn't expect are going to get hit with supply chain problems are suddenly going to say, guess what? Our revenue is off by 20, 30% because we couldn't sell this product …”
Chamath: Global supply chain disruptions will be resolved by early 2023
“So I think we're dealing with a, you know, six to nine month issue of having turned things off and are now rapidly trying to turn things back on and we can't necessarily get that timing right. But I do think it'll work itself out faster than people expect pers…”
Chamath: Startups raising exorbitant Series A rounds never succeed
“Whenever I see these grandiose prognostications of future progress, and then see these companies raise exorbitant amounts of money, I have never found a single example where it's ever worked. Ever. In fact, every time I see a company raise an exorbitant amount…”
Friedberg: Experienced execs are less likely to succeed in deep tech innovation
“They hire the tried and true experienced executives, who generally have older kids and live in a nice house and have made a bunch of money. And the earnestness, the motivation, the hunger, the fuel, the creativity, because they know what they know, and they're…”
Chamath reveals he passed on Bolt's Series A at a $63M valuation
“I had a chance to do the Series A in a fourteen billion dollar company and screwed, screwed that one up.”