Jun 24, 2022 · 1h 41m · allin
E84: Markets update, crypto collapse, Russia/Ukraine endgame, state of the podcast
David Sacks · 29m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 24m spoken Jason Calacanis · 21m spoken David Friedberg · 15m spoken
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In Episode 84 of the All-In Podcast, hosts Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg, and David Sacks address internal podcast partnership negotiations before delivering an in-depth analysis of macroeconomic inflation, tech market repricing, cryptocurrency crashes, and geopolitical realignments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.7 Guest teaching 3.7 Guest disagreement 3.0 The hosts pushing back 2.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:01 Friedberg confronts Jason on podcast replacement claims
Friedberg directly calls out Jason for telling his family he was replaceable and trying to kick him off the podcast, sparking sharp personal conflict.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 30:05 Sacks and Chamath reject Friedberg's AI Fed proposalSacks and Chamath firmly push back against Friedberg's idea of an AI-driven daily Fed rate adjustment, insisting the Fed must stick strictly to its primary dual mandate.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 32:17 Chamath breaks down institutional pricing of Meta stockChamath explains the mechanism of how smart institutional capital re-underwrites corporate earnings in inflationary recessions versus naive retail market perceptions.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:16:22 Friedberg details the $400B asset giveaway to RussiaFriedberg demonstrates deep market domain knowledge by detailing how Western trading bans stripped $400 billion of equity value from Western pensions and handed it back to Russia.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pod Ownership Dispute & Production Delay | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 | The hosts argue intensely over podcast ownership, financial arrangements, and Jason's alleged attempt to replace Friedberg. Friedberg and Sacks directly challenge Jason's narrative until Chamath intervenes to summarize the signed agreement. | |
| All-In Podcast Opening Title Sequence | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Chamath delivers an extended macro breakdown tracing the current bear market back to the 2008 financial crisis and Modern Monetary Theory. Sacks expands on quantitative easing and central bank liquidity distortions. | |
| Political Causes of Inflation & Russia-Ukraine Sanctions Backfire | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Sacks outlines three policy decisions by the Biden administration that contributed to inflation and geopolitical tension. Chamath highlights the backfire of Russian oil sanctions leading to price caps and workaround sales to India and China. | |
| Bipartisan Spending, Fed Mandate & Druckenmiller Warnings | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Jason pushes back on Sacks by pointing out bipartisan overspending across administrations. Friedberg clarifies the Fed's dual mandate versus Treasury issuance and cites Stan Druckenmiller's early warnings from Q2 2021. | |
| Flawed CPI Data Collection & Debt Market Contagion Risks | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Chamath exposes the archaic nature of CPI measurement involving manual survey workers rather than real-time digital transaction feeds. He forecasts severe upcoming CPI prints and debt market contagion risk. | |
| Labor Force Dynamics, Consumer Sentiment & Stagflation Risk | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sacks analyzes collapsing consumer sentiment polling data and the danger of embedded inflation expectations. He warns that aggressive Fed rate hikes risk triggering a stagflationary environment. | |
| Proposal for an AI-Driven Federal Reserve & Mandate Politicization | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Friedberg proposes replacing human judgment at the Fed with real-time AI models making daily micro-adjustments to interest rates. Sacks and Chamath forcefully push back, arguing against politicized mandates and daily volatility. | |
| Facebook Stock Divergence & Wall Street Earnings Miscalculations | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Chamath breaks down Meta's stock divergence on a broader market rally day, illustrating how institutional smart money underwrites Meta's earnings expectations differently than retail investors. | |
| Labor Force Participation & Supply-Side Inflation Solutions | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Sacks emphasizes supply-side solutions to inflation, including increasing labor participation and domestic energy production. Friedberg highlights consumer debt expansion and falling commodity prices like wheat and lumber. | |
| $7 Gas Prices, Auto Loan Defaults & Vehicle Replacement Cycles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg cites auto replacement cycles and spiking auto loan delinquencies following Fed rate hikes. Chamath reveals the 0.92 correlation between M2 money supply growth and S&P stock market valuation expansion. | |
| Coatue Summit Takeaways & Startup Death Spiral Risk | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Sacks shares key findings from the Coatue Summit, highlighting that three to four years of runway is the new requirement due to an impending 75 percent contraction in startup venture capital availability. | |
| Sequoia's Survival Matrix, Capital Depletion & Tiger Global | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Sacks presents Sequoia's 'Survival of the Quickest' framework for startup cost-cutting. Chamath recounts rejecting a $100 million investment deal at a 50 percent discount to prioritize balance sheet liquidity. | |
| Startup Valuations and the Return to Financial Discipline | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Sacks re-establishes realistic private market valuation multiples at 20-30x ARR for top growers compared to past 200-300x peaks. Jason and Chamath observe a broader return to financial discipline across angel syndicates. | |
| Crypto Market Crash and Systemic Contagion | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | The panel analyzes the crypto collapse, including Three Arrows Capital, Terra Luna, and Solend liquidations. Sacks compares the unwinding of excessive leverage to the 2000 dot-com crash. | |
| Token Sale Controversies, Venture Schemes, and Regulatory Exposure | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Chamath details how venture firms structured token sales to dump unlocked tokens onto retail investors. Friedberg and Chamath analyze jurisdictional friction between the SEC and CFTC and upcoming regulatory enforcement. | |
| NFT Insider Trading Charges and Exchange Shenanigans | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Jason notes SDNY insider trading charges against an OpenSea executive. Chamath explains how major crypto exchanges regularly front-run order flows, predicting major legal exposure if subpoenaed. | |
| Intermission Banter and Podcast Contract Negotiations | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | The hosts engage in lighthearted banter regarding podcast contract non-disparagement clauses before Sacks transitions to foreign policy, introducing Lithuania's blockade of Kaliningrad. | |
| Russia-Ukraine War Endgame and Battlefield Realities | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Chamath and Sacks discuss European leaders visiting Kyiv and predict growing European pressure for a negotiated ceasefire due to severe energy contagion risks. | |
| Failure of Western Sanctions and Global Commodity Shifts | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Friedberg and Sacks demonstrate how US financial sanctions unintendedly transferred $400 billion in market capitalization back to Russia for free, while boosting Russian trade surpluses. | |
| US Energy Policy, Foreign Alliances, and China's Innovation Strategy | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Sacks critiques US energy policy contradictions regarding Saudi Arabia and domestic drilling. Chamath compares China's rapid battery tech advancements (CATL 3.0) against US political virtue-signaling. | |
| Geopolitical Realignment and US Overextension as World Policeman | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Sacks contrasts China's commercial Belt and Road initiative with US military interventionism. Chamath explains why attempting to economically humiliate historically resilient nations usually fails. | |
| Rethinking Global Security, Domestic Consumption, and Transportation Efficiency | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Sacks proposes a 'community policing' doctrine where European nations fund their own frontline defense. Jason and Chamath argue for higher fuel efficiency and smaller domestic vehicles. | |
| 2024 US Presidential Election Predictions | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Sacks outlines a potential 2024 presidential matchup between Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom, pointing to primary polling trends and Newsom's strategy on Truth Social. |
Statements from this episode (37)
Chamath: All-In hosts signed agreement as equal 25% partners
“Basically what happened was we had an agreement that it was 25% each. There was a moment where J Cal believed that he deserved more. We had to sort through a lot of the underlying issues that caused them to believe that. We got to a good consensus. We now have…”
Calacanis: All-In Podcast will not host future summits or build a business
“There's not going to be any more summits. There's not going to be any business here. It's just a pod. I have other events I do. I have other pods I do. If I want to get paid, I'll do them over there. And here, it's just a pod that you see every week.”
Chamath: Market bottom may not occur for another 18 months
“It's going to take, you know, 24, 36 months. That may mean the bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months.”
Sacks: Fed bought 54% of US government debt in 2021
“So you go back to last year, the Fed bought 54% of the government's debt, despite the fact That the economy was growing at like five percent GDP, that it was bouncing back really strongly from COVID, that you had the stock market at all time highs, and yet the…”
Sacks predicts Ukraine war and inflation will tank Biden's presidency
“So, now we have this massive war in Ukraine that's fueling food and energy inflation. It's going to tank his presidency, and I don't even think there was any debate in his cabinet about this.”
Sacks: Republicans only emphasize spending discipline under Democratic presidents
“For sure, and Republicans only seem to find their principles on spending when there's a Democrat in the White House.”
Chamath predicts US CPI inflation will stay 7% to 9% short-term
“The next three, four, five months of CPI. Will probably be very, very bad. Seven, eight, nine percent.”
Friedberg: Daily Fed rate adjustments would have prevented current economic crisis
“Because if we had made smaller adjustments, Every day for a period of time, as these economic data indicated that we should be making them more quickly, we would not be in this problem.”
Sacks: Biden administration gave the Federal Reserve climate and equity mandates
“And actually the administration has been trying to add mandates. They basically gave the Fed a mandate around climate change. They gave them a mandate around equity.”
Palihapitiya: Corporate earnings will fall in 2022 and 2023, driving stock repricing
“I think Wall Street's wrong. And I think that earnings are going to go down this year, and will definitely go down in 23. And so I think what probably happens is the entire world of equities needs to get repriced at a lower price. And in that, it's going to pu…”
Sacks: Millions left US labor force due to COVID stimulus
“Millions of people left the labor force during COVID as a result of the stimulus checks and the freezing of rent and Evictions.”
Friedberg: Uncontrolled gas prices always trigger recessionary cycles
“Unless you can get gas prices under control, that always, always has a massive impact on spending, on consumer spending, which drives a recessionary cycle.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: US gasoline prices could reach $7 per gallon nationwide
“They're going to get worse. We could have seven dollar gas. Broadly, broadly, we could have seven dollar gas all throughout the country.”
Friedberg: Auto loan delinquencies spiking after Fed interest rate hikes
“The interest rates for auto loans have spiked like crazy now with this change in the Fed rates. And as a result, The delinquency on auto loan portfolios has spiked like crazy.”
Palihapitiya: Stock market expansion had 0.92 correlation with Fed money printing
“The reason the stock market went up Dollar for dollar was actually tied to the growth in the M two money supply. The correlation was .92. So for every dollar that the fed printed, the stock market went up by 92 cents.”
Palihapitiya: Markets will drop $3T-$5T plus 20-30% if Fed contracts M2 supply
“So, you know, it stands to reason that if the Fed is going to take three to five trillion dollars of value out, then we have to rewrite the equity markets by three to five trillion dollars at a minimum. And then you have to rewrite and re baseline for earnings…”
Sacks: Coatue forecasts that venture capital availability will drop 75%
“They're predicting, they're forecasting that capital availability will It's going to decline about 75%. The amount of money that's venture money that's available to the ecosystem down by three quarters.”
Chamath rejected a $100M investment offer at 50% discount, seeking 65%
“I was offered a hundred million dollars at a 50% discount, and I said, call me when you get to 65.”
Sacks: Tiger Global is essentially out as a growth-stage capital provider
“Like we know tiger is basically out. I mean, they were the, basically the default provider of growth stage capital over the last couple of years.”
Sacks: Top-tier startups fundraising next year will get 20x-30x ARR multiples
“When you try to go raise next year, assuming you're the best of the best, you'll get 20 to 30 times ARR.”
Sacks: Founders must judge current burn against next round's lower multiples
“Think about your spending, not last round's money, you're spending the next round's money. If you could just reorient your thinking that way, you'd burn a lot less money.”
Sacks: The crypto crash is like the dot-com bubble collapse
“It's like the dotcom crash all over again. I mean, basically you had an extremely promising technology. I mean, it is a promising technology, and it is a future, you know, technology platform, but the price action got totally decoupled from the level of progre…”
Sacks: Crypto acts as a liquidity sponge across market cycles
“Crypto is like a liquidity sponge. It sucks up when there's a lot of excess liquidity, it's sucks up that liquidity, but now that sponge is getting wrung out.”
Calacanis: Andreessen Horowitz engaged most in VC token sale flips
“That seems like the firm that did this the most is Andreessen Horowitz.”
Palihapitiya: Crypto regulatory gray area will persist without congressional action
“We need Congress to pass some legislative framework that puts the puck in one side of the arena, a rink or the other. And otherwise, otherwise all this gray is going to exist for a long time.”
Chamath: Crypto exchanges make tens of billions front-running order flow
“It's not illegal to front run crypto trade. So Most of these organizations that that run an exchange, right, compete for order flow, and they're able to just look at that order flow, and then they front run the trade, and they're on the other side of that. So …”
Calacanis: Crypto fraud discovery will cause the industry to crash
“So this is all going to come crashing down, and the discovery is going to be next level.”
Sacks: Kaliningrad blockade will have zero impact on Russia-Ukraine war
“This is not going to help anyone in Ukraine to blockade Kaliningrad and prevent coal and building materials and steel from reaching Kaliningrad. That's not going to have any impact on the war.”
Palihapitiya predicts Russia-Ukraine war will end in negotiated detente
“So I think that the end game is probably some organized, negotiated detente and ceasefire.”
Friedberg: Ban on Russian securities transferred $400B from Western funds to Russia
“When we stopped allowing trading in the securities of Russian companies, we yanked away four hundred billion dollars of market cap that was held primarily by pension funds and retirement funds in the U.S. And Europe, and gave that value to Russia for free.”
Chamath: Russia and China are settling trade transactions in Chinese Yuan
“And now Russia and China are trading and settling in CNY.”
Sacks predicts Western Alliance will fracture during winter 2022
“Wait until winter. And then that's only going to increase Putin's leverage. And that's when you're going to see a real fracture in the Western Alliance. This idea that Ukraine strengthened the Western Alliance, I think you will start to see the fractures from …”
Sacks: The U.S. will face economic austerity due to military spending
“We are going to have some form or another of austerity in this country.”
Sacks: European nations should cover 100% of their defense costs
“They should be picking up a hundred percent of the cost of that. A hundred percent.”
Calacanis: Joe Biden will not run for re-election in 2024
“Well, I don't think he's gonna run again. I think they're gonna have to put another candidate.”