Jul 22, 2022 · 1h 44m · allin
E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
David Sacks · 24m spoken David Friedberg · 23m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 22m spoken Jason Calacanis · 21m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In Episode 88 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts analyze U.S. midterm election trends, government policy debates, China's economic and demographic headwinds, and recent valuation resets across public and private financial markets.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 7.2 Guest teaching 3.5 Guest disagreement 3.7 The hosts pushing back 3.5
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:26 Chamath confronts Friedberg on Intel buybacks
Chamath forcefully rejects Friedberg's thesis on chip subsidies, calling it bullshit propaganda when Intel used over $100B on share buybacks.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 24:51 Calacanis challenges Sacks on political cynicismCalacanis refuses Sacks' framing that Trump's judicial nominations were non-cynical, directly arguing that Trump acted purely out of electoral self-interest.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 10:26 Chamath educates Friedberg on Intel capital allocationChamath dismantles Friedberg's defense of board capital constraints by showing Intel spent tens of billions on buybacks rather than funding fab construction.
The host holds their own ▶ 23:12 Chamath cites Obama's exact 2009 transcript quoteChamath demonstrates command of political history by quoting Obama's exact April 29, 2009 press conference statement deprioritizing Roe v. Wade codification.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midterm Elections & Thiel-Backed Candidates | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg and Calacanis prompt Sacks regarding Thiel-backed candidates JD Vance and Blake Masters. Sacks defends political funding while Chamath and Friedberg frame Thiel's philosophy as an attempt to introduce heterodoxy and disrupt government inefficiency. | |
| Pelosi Stock Trades & CHIPS Act Policy Debate | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | Chamath aggressively attacks Friedberg's argument that chip companies need government subsidies for fabs, pointing out Intel approved a $110 billion buyback plan. The group fiercely debates government subsidies versus loans and stock trading by politicians like Pelosi. | |
| Democratic Realignment & Primary Election Interventions | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | Sacks monologues on working-class voters defecting from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, citing Mayra Flores and Hispanic polling numbers. He also outlines Democratic primary spending in far-right races. | |
| Codifying Rights, Campaign Commitments & Political Cynicism | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | Sacks argues Democrats deliberately avoid codifying rights to use them as fundraising levers, which Calacanis pushes back on. Chamath provides detailed historical expertise by reading Obama's exact April 2009 quote deprioritizing Roe v. Wade. | |
| First-Principles Philosophy: Needs vs. Wants & Government Waste | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg outlines a first-principles philosophy differentiating government support for needs versus wants, using his deep familiarity with the quadrennial Farm Bill's logrolling and pork as a case study. | |
| Macro Economic Risk, Media Polarization & Biden's Leadership Failure | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Chamath highlights macro fiscal risks over social policy disputes as the true threat to American stability. Sacks argues media polarization and Biden's alignment with progressives wasted a centrist governance opportunity. | |
| China's Economic Slump, Banking Protests, and Real Estate Crisis | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg provides extensive statistical context on China's GDP growth trajectory, real estate sales volume drop, and financial sector leverage while analyzing banking protests and mortgage boycotts. | |
| Demographic Collapse and the US-China Macro Rivalry | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Chamath and Sacks discuss China's 1.15 fertility rate and demographic collapse, contrasting it with US immigration advantages and examining geopolitical zero-sum dynamics. | |
| Deflationary Technology, OpenAI's DALL-E 2, and AI Creativity | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg educates the group on deflationary technology and generative AI models like OpenAI's DALL-E 2, explaining how automated creative tools will alter filmmaking and high-order labor. | |
| BlackRock's $1.7 Trillion Loss and Public vs. Private Market Investing | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sacks contextualizes BlackRock's $1.7 trillion loss as passive market beta reflection. Chamath analyzes how central bank quantitative easing since 2008 rewarded market beta over active stock-picking alpha. | |
| The Private VC Crunch, Pulled Term Sheets, and Returning LP Capital | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Friedberg and Sacks report on pulled term sheets, LP capital freezes, and shifting VC valuations. Chamath argues VCs should pause deployment until public-private indigestion settles, whereas Calacanis disagrees. |
Statements from this episode (35)
David Sacks predicts JD Vance election win amid November 2022 red wave
“JD's already won the primaries and I expect he will win. I mean, it's gonna be, I think a red wave in November and Ohio is a pretty red state these days.”
David Sacks predicts Blake Masters will do well in Arizona Republican primary
“Blake still has to win the primary in Arizona. That's a little bit more of a toss up, but I think he'll do well.”
David Sacks says working-class populism represents the future of the Republican Party
“The reason why I support JD and Blake for that matter is they are, they represent this more populist, working class wing of the Republican Party, and they're dragging the Republican Party in a more working class direction. I think that's the future of the part…”
Chamath: Intel spent over $100B on stock buybacks leaving $6B in cash
“Intel in twenty-twenty approved a share purchase plan where these guys had a hold of a hundred and ten billion dollars and have spent all of it except for 7.2 billion. They have six billion left on the balance sheet.”
Friedberg: Onshoring semiconductor manufacturing is financially irrational for Intel
“The rational capitalist decision is to offshore manufacturing for Intel. Yes. It is irrational for them from a business perspective, from a board perspective, from a fiduciary perspective, To onshore manufacturing.”
Friedberg: Paul Pelosi bought Nvidia stock four times in 12 months
“Over the past year, He has bought Nvidia four different times, each time in the same kind of volume range... He's also bought Apple in the last month, Microsoft, sorry, he sold Apple, he bought Microsoft he bought Alliance Bernstein earlier in the year. He's m…”
Sacks: Joe Biden's approval rating has fallen to 31%
“If you go to the latest Biden polling numbers, he's down to 31% approval, 60% disapproved.”
Sacks: Democrats spent $44M boosting MAGA candidates in primaries
“So, recently, there's an article about the Democrats have spent 44 Million dollars this election cycle basically running ads in favor of the crazy MAGA candidate in primaries.”
Sacks: November red wave will elect boosted MAGA candidates
“If we have a red wave in November, you're gonna end up with more of these candidates basically winning.”
Sacks: At least 10 Republican senators support codifying same-sex marriage
“There are 10 Republican votes, at least, for this in the Senate. You have a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate who would support this.”
Chamath: Political donations were focused on defeating Donald Trump
“My capital was focused on one thing, which is I thought that President Trump was not the right person to lead this country. And I thought very clearly that the right Democrat could do a much, much better job.”
Friedberg: Fiscally conservative and socially liberal voters comprise just 4% of electorate
“According to the Monmouth poll from a few weeks ago, you represent four percent of the voting base. That's an extreme, yeah, that's an extreme minority, the lowest Self-identifying quadrant of fiscal conservative versus kind of fiscal liberal, social conservat…”
Friedberg: Government should support those in need, not those in want
“I think that the government's role is to support those in need, not those in want. And I think that the government should be held accountable for performing that role.”
Sacks: Biden sought $4T for Build Back Better atop previous $4T
“Biden wanted an extra four trillion of spending On this whole Build Back Better on top of the four trillion he had.”
Sacks: Republicans will win control of the House
“Well, the Republicans are going to win the house at least.”
Sacks: China's economic trouble resembles the 2008 US real estate collapse
“I think the financial, I think it's more like the financial crisis in 2008 that was driven by the real estate bubble. They've got their own real estate bubble, which is collapsing there.”
Calacanis: 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in property
“According to Bloomberg, 70% of household wealth China's tied up in property much higher than the US.”
Friedberg: China's share of global GDP rose from 2% to 20%
“China now accounts for 20% of global GDP from less than two percent in 1990.”
Sacks: China's fertility rate dropped to 1.15 in 2021
“The birth rate or the fertility rate in China slipped to just 1.15 in 20, 21.”
Sacks predicts China's population will fall below 600M by 2100
“The numbers are, it's gonna be under six hundred million by the year 2100”
Friedberg: China has 3 million factories compared to 300,000 in the US
“China has about three million factories or manufacturing facilities throughout the country employing about one hundred and twelve million people. The US has about 300,000 factories employing about 12 and a half million people.”
Friedberg predicts nuclear power will give China a massive automated manufacturing edge
“If factories become much more automated, they start to become a function of the price of electricity in terms of what they can output, China's gonna have a huge advantage as these nuclear power plants come online over the next couple of decades, and these faci…”
Friedberg: Automation continuously shifts human labor into higher-order service jobs
“As that automation has happened, it's allowed higher order services jobs to emerge, and that will be the progression of humanity forever.”
Friedberg: AI tools will enable tens of thousands to make high-quality movies
“The number of people that can do that job goes from Steven Spielberg and Bob Zemeckis and a few other people to suddenly thousands or tens of thousands of people around the world making incredible movies.”
Friedberg: Current creative jobs will vanish but AI will create unimagined roles
“The roles that those people are in today will absolutely be gone, but they will emerge and evolve into new roles that we never even thought imaginable, that will really transform that industry and society, and this is gonna be true across everywhere that AI to…”
Palihapitiya: Index funds will outperform active pickers if central banks intervene
“So I think my general takeaway is that if the central banks stay on the sidelines, Individual stock picking reins and active management can win if they continue to be involved and do quantitative easing and all of this other stuff. Index funds that are long co…”
Calacanis: Deposited a couple million dollars to actively trade public stocks
“So I put a couple million bucks into an account, and I'm just trying to actively figure out how does value work there? And, you know, I'm just starting to make trades that I want to hold for 10 or 20 years, and we'll see if I can beat the market.”
Sacks: High-growth private SaaS startups are landing deals at 20x ARR
“Well, what we're seeing right now is that pretty good SaaS companies that are growing, you know, maybe on a trailing basis, they grew three X and, you know, prospectively they're growing, call it two and a half X. They're trading right now, not trading, but ba…”
Friedberg: Crypto platform valued at $5B sold for reported $25M
“Those crypto trading platforms, they raised five hundred million dollars last July, and they just sold the business for a reported twenty five million dollars after being valued at five billion a year ago.”
Sacks: VCs will shift focus toward later-stage startup investments
“You're going to start seeing a dynamic where in the same way that last year everyone went earlier and earlier, you're going to see VC start to sit back and go a little later and later.”
Calacanis: Launch plans to double seed-stage deal activity
“I'm going to do twice as many deals in the seed stage as everybody else”
Calacanis: LAUNCH trimmed secondary positions 80% of times offered for winning companies
“We were offered the opportunity to trim our positions in secondary with our winners, ah, from people who wanted to buy secondary shares. I did it probably four out of five times.”
Calacanis: Tech M&A activity will begin ticking up
“I think the big thing that's going to happen right now, I'm seeing it all over the place, is M&A I think is going to start ticking up.”