Jan 20, 2023 · 1h 36m · allin
E112: Is Davos a grift? Plus: globalist mishaps, debt ceilings, TikTok's endgame & more
Chamath Palihapitiya · 25m spoken David Friedberg · 22m spoken Jason Calacanis · 19m spoken David Sacks · 18m spoken
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In episode 112 of the All-In Podcast, guest moderator David Friedberg and co-hosts Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and Jason Calacanis debate the origins of their show before analyzing 2024 presidential politics, the national debt, and the World Economic Forum in Davos. They also discuss US-China geopolitics surrounding TikTok, AI advancements in drug discovery, and legal liability in the Alec Baldwin set shooting.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.9 Guest teaching 3.5 Guest disagreement 4.6 The hosts pushing back 4.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 57:08 Sacks attacks JCal's border stance
Sacks aggressively challenges JCal's framing of immigration, accusing him of advocating for open borders allowing millions of illiterate migrants across under the guise of finding one tech founder.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 1:07:33 Sacks demands evidence for TikTok spyware claimsSacks refuses to accept JCal's assertion that TikTok is spyware without empirical proof, directly questioning why Apple would permit it on the App Store if true.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 43:10 Chamath re-evaluates infrastructure project WACCChamath educates Friedberg on financial modeling for domestic infrastructure, explaining how adjusting discount rates, WACC, and payback windows changes the economic ROI calculations relative to government spending.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:25:52 Chamath outlines biotech monetization modelsChamath demonstrates deep domain experience by drawing from his Flatiron Health exit and detailing how AI companies can capture value through backend royalties like Royalty Pharma rather than standard SAAS seat pricing.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podcast Title Sequence and Host Introductions | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | The hosts engage in light banter about podcasts rankings and who designed the format. Friedberg steps in as moderator while JCal takes a reduced role due to losing his voice. | |
| Calling Out Jason’s Tim Ferriss Origin Story Clip | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Sacks and Friedberg confront JCal over a Tim Ferriss clip where JCal took credit for creating the podcast's concept. Sacks pushes back, pointing out that Chamath originated the poker table recording idea and Sacks suggested the McLaughlin Group format. | |
| DeSantis's AP African American Studies Controversy & 2024 GOP Field | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Chamath introduces the news on DeSantis banning AP African American Studies. Sacks offers a political counter-analysis, predicting the controversy will ultimately benefit DeSantis among Florida voters. | |
| Evaluating Nikki Haley and Glenn Youngkin for President | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Chamath defends Nikki Haley as a viable, sane presidential candidate by citing her South Carolina record and climate job initiatives. Sacks counters that her primary support comes from Democrats and notes she promised not to run against Trump. | |
| JCal’s Single-Issue Shift Toward Fiscal Responsibility & Debt Ceiling | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | JCal shares his pivot toward fiscal responsibility and willingness to support holding the line on the debt ceiling. Chamath pivots to humorously quiz Sacks on whether he would host AOC or George Santos. | |
| Transition to World Economic Forum at Davos & Globalism vs. Isolationism | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Friedberg frames the difficulty of political platforms centered on austerity. Sacks transitions into criticizing the World Economic Forum at Davos as a venue promoting flawed economic and environmental policies. | |
| Critique of Davos Policies, China Dependencies, and the Deglobalization Pendulum | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Sacks and Chamath detail the structural flaws of free trade dependencies with China and the rise of deglobalization. Chamath explains that Davos appeals primarily to Western overachieving surplus elites rather than builders. | |
| Jason’s $40k Davos Bill, Access Journalism, and the Origin of "Davos Man" | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | JCal describes his personal experience being asked for forty thousand dollars to join a Davos future leaders group, labeling the event a PR grift. Sacks adds historical context by referencing Samuel Huntington coining the term Davos Man in 2004. | |
| De-globalization, U.S. Infrastructure Investments, and the Debt Ceiling | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | Friedberg questions whether the US can afford domestic infrastructure redundancy during a debt crisis. Chamath responds by reframing cost-benefit calculations around WACC, discount rates, and geopolitical game theory regarding natural resources. | |
| American Competitiveness: Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Immigration Policy Debate | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | JCal argues that high-skilled recruitment and broad immigration drive US innovation. Sacks forcefully pushes back, accusing JCal of conflating skilled talent recruitment with unvetted open borders at the southern border. | |
| TikTok Bans, Geopolitical Risks, and ByteDance Restructuring Options | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The hosts discuss university Wi-Fi bans on TikTok and potential security risks. Sacks demands concrete proof that TikTok acts as active spyware, while JCal and Chamath point out systemic data collection permissions and ByteDance tracking of journalists. | |
| AI/ML in Healthcare, Biotech Acquisitions, and Evolving Enterprise Software Models | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Friedberg highlights BioNTech acquiring InstaDeep to integrate machine learning into biotech drug discovery. Chamath shares insights from his Flatiron Health investment and explains how Royalty Pharma's business model outperforms seat-license software pricing. | |
| Discussion on Alec Baldwin and 'Rust' Movie Shooting Liability | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Chamath asks why Alec Baldwin faces manslaughter charges for the Rust shooting. Sacks explains the division of labor on movie sets, arguing that armorer negligence is the primary fault rather than an actor or vanity producer credit. |
Statements from this episode (35)
Sacks predicts AP curriculum controversy will benefit Ron DeSantis
“Let me make a prediction right now. This will all redound his advantage.”
Chamath predicts Nikki Haley will win the 2024 GOP primary
“I actually, I think Nikki Haley's gonna come out of nowhere and win this thing.”
Sacks: Nikki Haley will not win the Republican presidential nomination
“She's not going to win the Republican nomination.”
Sacks ranks Glenn Youngkin as third most prominent Republican presidential contender
“The main alternative to Trump in the Republican Party is DeSantis, and then I'd say the number three in the Republican Party after Trump and DeSantis is Glenn Youngkin right now.”
Chamath: Trump and DeSantis will attack Youngkin over lack of experience
“I think that you'll see Trump and DeSantis attack Yunkin more viciously in a presidential primary than they attack Haley on that dimension of you have no experience and it'll be hard for him to back it up.”
Calacanis: Candidates focusing on social issues over economic ones are unfit
“The more These candidates talk about social issues and not economic ones. I think it's a tell that they're not the right person for the job.”
Calacanis supports Republicans voting no on raising the US debt ceiling
“Yeah, I actually do. I think we should start pumping the brakes on spending, and I do think the Tea Party, now that doesn't mean I like those candidates, they're kind of whack jobs, actually.”
Calacanis: The Republican Party has turned into a 'Howard Stern whack pack'
“The Republican Party has turned into some crazy Howard Stern whack pack.”
Friedberg: U.S. cannot solve major issues without fiscal solvency and dollar credit
“You cannot address climate change or social issues or infrastructure or unemployment unless we have the ability to operate as a country over the long term and have the ability to have the continuing credit Of the United States dollar.”
Calacanis warns startups must implement austerity to maintain balance sheet strength
“Freebrick, I'm dealing this with startups I have right now, and I tell them, the balance sheet is how you compete. If your balance sheet is flipped upside down, and you're going to be out of business in nine months, you're not competing with these two other co…”
Chamath: Female leaders perform better than male leaders at implementing economic austerity
“If you value austerity, if you look back in history, and you actually ask of the prime ministers or presidents of various countries, particularly first world countries that have actually had an impact in implementing austerity, you know what the unifying thing…”
Sacks: Global debt-to-GDP ratio stands at roughly 350 percent
“You do have ruinous deficits and debts piling up in both the US and across the world, something like 350% debt to GDP globally”
Chamath: Nobody building real businesses cares about Davos
“Nobody building anything really gives a shit about Davos. Nobody is thinking what's going on. Nobody even knows when it happens.”
Chamath: The era of hyper-globalization is categorically over
“We have decided it's categorical that that level of globalization that we have had this unitary singular monocultural way of thinking about things is over.”
Calacanis: World Economic Forum charged $40,000 fee for Young Global Leaders
“They recruited me to be part of their world leaders, 15 years ago, after I had sold my second company, and I met Claus, the guy who runs it, at some New York Four Seasons event, and then I got the bill, and to be a world leader, Was 40 fucking thousand dollars…”
Sacks: Political shift toward nationalist leaders over globalism will continue
“I think that's been receding in favor of more nationalist leaders who want to promote their own country's interests. And I think that that trend is going to continue.”
Chamath: Debt-to-GDP ratio is an intellectual red herring
“This debt to GDP thing is a bit of an intellectual red herring.”
Chamath: US lawmakers will raise debt ceiling and fund de-globalization
“And in that context, I think that people will him and ha, but ultimately they'll capitulate. They will raise the debt ceiling and they'll continue to fund this transition away from globalism.”
Friedberg claims China is building 450 nuclear plants to reduce power costs
“They're building 450 nuclear power plants, they're going to get the cost of industrial power below five cents or four cents a kilowatt hour, and they're electrifying all their factories.”
Chamath is investing heavily in under-surveyed natural resource regions
“I am investing a lot of money in those places that control the natural resources that are poorly understood.”
Calacanis: Canada and Australia utilize point-based immigration systems
“Look at Canada. Look at Australia. They have what's called a point-based immigration system. They give you points for everything that you bring to the country.”
Sacks: Broad US immigration reform requires southern border control first
“There's not going to be a broad-based constituency in this country for the type of immigration reform you're talking about until you get the southern border under control.”
Chamath: TikTok advertisers will soon face major pressure
“I think the next big shoe to drop is going to be advertisers who come under a lot of pressure.”
Chamath: TikTok default settings enable microphone, camera, and network access
“The default settings when you install TikTok, it turns on local network, turns on microphone, turns on camera. Turns on background app refresh and turns on cell data.”
Calacanis: ByteDance internal probe confirmed employees accessed US reporters' data
“According to the New York Times, ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, said on Thursday that an internal investigation found that employees had inappropriately obtained the data of US TikTok users, including that of two reporters.”
Chamath: You can't eat paper markups or IRR, only cash distributions
“You can't eat IRR and you can't eat paper markups. You can only eat the distribution.”
Sacks advises against investing in startups hoping for unreasonable acquisition valuations
“You can't invest in a company hoping for an unreasonable acquisition.”
Chamath: Flatiron Health's $1.9B Roche acquisition remains health ML's largest exit
“I was a early investor, Series A investor in a company called Flatiron Health. We sold it for 1.9 billion dollars to Roche. That's the biggest exit in this space for this machine learning enabled stuff. It happened in 2018.”
Chamath: Royalty Pharma has a $22.5B valuation and 90% EBITDA margins
“The best performing company in pharma is a company called Royalty Pharma. It's a 22 and a half billion dollar company that has 90% EBITDA margins.”
Chamath: Americanas destroyed $20B in value from Excel accounting errors
“Look at this company Americanas in Brazil, which just torched twenty billion dollars of enterprise value. Why? Because these guys were using Excel to do a bunch of complicated capitalization and cost accounting, made two or three years of mistakes. It added up…”
Sacks: Star producer credits in independent films carry no physical production responsibility
“Listen, you frequently give stars in an independent movie a producer, Title. He's not responsible for the physical production of the movie.”
Sacks: Armorer, not Alec Baldwin, is singularly responsible for Rust shooting
“I think this producer credit thing is probably a red herring. Like I said, I think the armorer is the person who is singularly responsible for this situation.”
Friedberg: Harvard study demonstrates epigenetic data loss drives mammalian aging
“I was going to talk about this really fantastic paper on the, one of the driving forces of aging, as demonstrated by a team from Harvard, In collaboration with many others on epigenetics and the loss of data integrity and epigenetics really being the core driv…”