Jun 24, 2023 · 1h 33m · allin
E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
David Sacks · 27m spoken Jason Calacanis · 23m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 16m spoken Brad Gerstner · 14m spoken Netflix Executive (COTU Summit Fan) · 38s spoken
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In Episode 134 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts analyze critical macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, unpack geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine counteroffensive and US-China relations, and critique mainstream media narratives on public health and politics.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 82% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.2 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 2.0 The hosts pushing back 3.2
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:23:53 Brad disagrees with Sacks on industrial policy
Brad directly pushes back against Sacks's anti-industrial policy stance, taking Chamath's side and arguing that state support for battery manufacturing is a national security imperative.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 14:44 Chamath and Sacks reject Brad's fitness analogyChamath directly confronts Brad's praise of Twitter's cost-cutting, explicitly rejecting the idea that stopping overspending makes someone an operational firefighter.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:14:35 Brad breaks down the 1,400 tech unicornsBrad delivers a clear, authoritative breakdown of the private tech market, explaining why most secondary discounts aren't clearing and categorizing unicorns into zombies, down-rounds, and top performers.
The host holds their own ▶ 28:48 Sacks lays out military ammunition production statsSacks counters Jason's skepticism by citing specific monthly 155mm artillery shell production capacity figures for both the United States and Russia to back up his stance.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COTU Summit Banter and Sacks's Hair Comparison | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The hosts and guest Brad Gerstner engage in light introductory banter about the COTU summit and haircuts. Brad provides brief context on the somber market tone at the conference. | |
| The COTU Summit Catering Critique and SBF Retrospective | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Jason and Sacks mock the unappealing catering at the COTU summit and contrast it with SBF's lavish presence the previous year. The discussion remains humorous and casual. | |
| Podcast Content Strategy Debate and the Magnificent Seven | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Sacks argues for maintaining political debate on the podcast while Chamath shares an anecdote about his haircut in Milan. The conversation covers content strategy without serious friction. | |
| COTU Fan Video Reaction and Sacks's Fashion Critique | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The group plays a video testimonial from a Netflix executive praising the show's chemistry. Banter resumes around Sacks's fashion choices. | |
| The Mark Zuckerberg vs. Elon Musk Cage Match Debate | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Sacks and Jason analyze the potential cage match between Zuckerberg and Musk, noting Zuck's martial arts training. Chamath dismisses the entire match as a foolish distraction. | |
| Corporate Fitness: Meta, Twitter, and the Faucet Analogy | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | Brad draws an analogy between Meta and Twitter getting fit, which Chamath immediately rejects. Chamath and Sacks challenge Brad's framing by arguing that stopping wasteful spending is not equivalent to operational efficiency. | |
| Peace Negotiations, Boris Johnson, and Geopolitical War Fatigue | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Sacks lays out a detailed narrative of early peace negotiations in Istanbul and Western intervention. Jason interjects with skeptical disclaimers about source reliability. | |
| Establishment Failure, Foreign Policy Debts, and Open Debate | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Chamath and Brad discuss institutional failures and the massive financial costs of foreign military operations. Brad forcefully argues for public debate over foreign intervention. | |
| The Depletion of Western Ammunition Stockpiles and Military Capacity | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | Jason pushes back on Sacks's sources, prompting Sacks to cite specific artillery shell production figures to argue US ammunition stockpiles are severely depleted. | |
| Matthew Yglesias's "Cynical Deal" and the Emerging China-Russia-Iran Axis | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Sacks critiques Matthew Yglesias's framing of the war and outlines the emerging defense industrial alignment among China, Russia, and Iran. Jason questions the extent of China's military involvement. | |
| US-China Diplomacy and Blinken's Mission to Beijing | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Chamath commends Secretary Blinken's diplomatic efforts in Beijing while criticizing President Biden's unscripted comments calling Xi a dictator. Brad shares market index movements following the visit. | |
| Chinese Official Readouts and the China-Russia Axis | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Sacks analyzes Chinese diplomatic readouts regarding US relations and the Xi-Putin partnership. Jason suggests alternative focus areas like climate and normalization with Cuba. | |
| Chinese Outpost in Cuba and Monroe Doctrine Enforcement | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sacks invokes the Monroe Doctrine regarding Chinese surveillance and potential troop presence in Cuba. Brad notes the business community's desire for strategic engagement rather than total decoupling. | |
| Taiwan Strategy, Semiconductor Dependence, and TSMC Offshoring | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Chamath and Brad discuss semiconductor supply chain risk, noting Warren Buffett's complete exit from TSMC. Brad shares insights from Taiwanese business families preparing contingencies. | |
| Addressing Media Backlash Over RFK Jr. Host Sponsorship | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Jason brings up Substack criticism of Sacks and Chamath hosting an RFK Jr. fundraiser. Sacks defends his support based on free speech, anti-war stances, and border security policy. | |
| Nuance on Vaccine Policy, Public Health, and Political Orthodoxy | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Chamath clarifies RFK Jr.'s specific positions on public health and vaccines. Brad criticizes media efforts to demand strict partisan orthodoxy. | |
| Media Hypocrisy, COVID-19 Origins, and Wuhan Lab Revelations | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | Jason highlights historical investigative journalism that challenged official narratives. Sacks cites reports pointing to Wuhan lab researchers as potential COVID patient zero. | |
| Secondary Market Reset and Startup Valuation Crash | 5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | Brad educates the hosts on the current state of startup secondary markets and valuation resets. He breaks down the 1,400 tech unicorns into clear performance categories. | |
| Ford's $9.2B DOE Loan and Industrial Policy Debate | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | The panel debates Ford's $9.2 billion Department of Energy loan. Chamath and Brad support state-backed industrial policy for energy independence, while Sacks firmly opposes crony capitalism. | |
| Chamath's Tweet on 'Mids' and Online Media | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Chamath defines his use of the term 'mids' in response to online criticism. The hosts close out the episode with recap banter. |
Statements from this episode (47)
Sacks predicts Sam Bankman-Fried will avoid criminal conviction
“No, it looks like he's getting off.”
Sacks: Sam Bankman-Fried is almost as protected as Hunter Biden
“He's almost as protected as Hunter Biden.”
Gerstner: Cash-burning startups must reach profitability or sell
“If you are burning cash today, there, you can't come back to the well. So you need to either figure out how to get profitable, figure out how to get fit, or you need to sell your business because, you know, the, there's not an endless stream of money.”
Sacks: Every software company he knows is re-forecasting down
“Every software company that I know is re-forecasting down.”
Sacks: 2x software growth equals 3x growth in past environments
“Two X is now the new three X. If you can grow two X in this environment, it's basically growing three X before.”
JCal: Seven tech stocks drive most of 2023 stock market gains
“Seven stocks make up the mo- most of the gains this year. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.”
Chamath: Bespoke personal service roles won't be disrupted by AI
“It's a rule that doesn't exist anywhere that will never get disrupted by AI.”
Sacks says Elon Musk required neck surgery after a sumo match
“Also, Elon has a neck injury that he got from that sumo thing years ago. And he's had to have surgeries on it”
Gerstner says Twitter cut up to 80 percent of its headcount
“75, 80% of the people gone and product velocity is on fire at Twitter.”
Chamath says Mark Zuckerberg burned a quarter-trillion dollars at Meta
“The guy burned a quarter trillion dollars and then found a way to stop it.”
Sacks: Ukrainian military has not breached Russia's first defensive line
“The Ukrainian army hasn't even made it to the first line of defense. So what the Russians did is They created three fortified lines or belts of defense. And then in front of that is what they call a gray zone or security zone or crumple zone, which is an area …”
Calacanis: Republican support for US aid to Ukraine is falling rapidly
“The neocons and Republicans are dropping their support for this at a pretty precipitous rate, which is predictable.”
Sacks: Istanbul outline required Russian withdrawal for Ukrainian NATO neutrality
“What the deal would have provided is that the Russians would move back to pre-war lines if the Ukrainians would agree not to become a member of NATO.”
Sacks claims the West rejected a Russia-Ukraine peace deal in 2022
“A deal was available, but the West chose not to take it.”
Gerstner: Post-9/11 US wars cost $8T and caused millions of deaths
“If we look at the wars the U.S. Has engaged in since September, it's estimated three to four million people have died in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan. We spent eight trillion dollars. Inflation adjusted, we spent four trillion in World War II. Eight trillion re…”
Sacks: War in Ukraine was avoidable by halting NATO expansion
“They've chose to fight an optional proxy war of choice that was easily avoidable if they'd just taken NATO expansion off the table because they thought it would weaken Putin”
Sacks: Russia fires ~20,000 artillery shells daily vs Ukraine's 3,000-6,000
“Russia is basically using about 20,000 shells a day. The Ukrainians are using somewhere between three and 6000.”
Sacks: US artillery shell production won't reach 90k monthly until 2028
“They're trying to ramp it up to 90,000 a month, but that's going to take till 2028 because, you know, it takes time to build it.”
Sacks says China, Russia, and Iran out-manufacture the US in weapons
“They actually have more manufacturing capacity to produce weapons of war and munitions and ammo than the United States does.”
Gerstner: KWEB Chinese tech ETF rose 20% leading into Blinken's visit
“So the K-Web, the Chinese index, was up about 20% heading into these series of meetings.”
Gerstner: Chinese stock market fell 10% following Blinken's visit
“Now, the market reaction post visit was down 10%”
Sacks predicts China will support and prop up Russia if necessary
“China will do what it has to do to support and even prop up Russia if they have to.”
Sacks: China's economy equals US in purchasing power parity
“The Chinese economy on a purchasing power parity basis is roughly the same size as the U.S., and they've got more manufacturing capacities.”
Gerstner: US economic decoupling from China is a farce
“This idea that we're going to decouple the world never have to deal with these folks, right, is just a farce.”
Gerstner: ByteDance announced a $1B Nvidia chip purchase in June 2023
“ByteDance bought a billion dollars worth of Nvidia chips announced this week, right?”
Chamath: Energy independence creates a peace dividend and reduces foreign conflict
“When you have energy independence and abundant costless energy, I do think that the biggest thing you get is this peace dividend, you stop fighting these wars, you become much more rational abroad.”
Gerstner predicts US reliance on Taiwan semiconductors ends in five years
“I think most of the wealthy families I've talked to from Taiwan believe that five or six years from now, the US will no longer be in the position where they will need Taiwan and Taipei as much as they do today.”
Gerstner: No U.S. president will go to war over Taiwan
“I don't see an American president, frankly, going to war, nor would I want them to go to war over Taiwan, but I think it's in all of our interests to maintain that status quo”
Sacks: RFK Jr. was right on COVID lockdowns and vaccine mandates
“I think he was right about COVID lockdowns, and I think I think he was right about COVID, the so-called COVID shot that wasn't even a vaccine, that that should not have been required.”
Chamath claims the COVID-19 vaccine is only 30 to 40 percent efficacious
“But because those things are lumped in with the same thing as a COVID vaccine that is at best, 30 or 40% efficacious.”
Chamath considers RFK Jr. better than all other 2024 presidential candidates
“But then you're left with a blended expected value where you're like, man, this guy is really better than all the other alternatives.”
Gerstner says All-In hosts held political dinners for Khanna, Manchin, and DeSantis
“The truth of the matter is this group has hosted dinners for Ro Khanna, for Senator Manchin, We've hosted dinners for DeSantis, right?”
Sacks says media misled public into believing mRNA vaccines prevent COVID transmission
“We were injected with an experimental mRNA treatment because we got Hoodwinked by the media into thinking it would prevent us from ever getting COVID, which it did not do.”
Sacks: Mainstream media acts as bodyguards and stenographers for elites
“They act as the bodyguard for the elite, for the establishment. They are stenographers for the people in power.”
Sacks: COVID-19 patient zero was a Wuhan lab gain-of-function researcher
“Patient zero, it turns out was a researcher at the Wuhan lab. Who was performing gain of function research?”
Sacks: Fauci's career would have ended if lab-leak role was exposed early
“Because Fauci had funded gain of function research at the Wuhan lab via EcoHealth Alliance. So he knew that if at the beginning of this pandemic, it turned out that he had been partially responsible For the creation of this virus that had now turned into a pan…”
JCal notes 46 percent of TV news advertising comes from pharma
“46% of the advertising on TV news comes from pharma”
Gerstner predicts 100 percent of 2022 unicorns will do down rounds
“There are 1400 unicorns at the end of 2022, and a hundred percent of them will likely do a down round. And if you said, what is the average that they're going to be down, it's over 50%.”
Gerstner: Altimeter hasn't bought private secondary shares because prices remain too high
“So why hasn't Altimeter purchased any of this? Because the prices aren't low enough. To induce me to get off the sidelines to purchase the shares”
Gerstner: Startup market clearing events will accelerate over the next 18 months
“But, you know, I think over the course of the next 18 months, we're going to see an acceleration of market clearing events as these companies need to raise capital as their employees want to get liquid on shares.”
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”
Chamath: Non-monopoly companies max out at 30% to 40% market share
“Unless you find some clever way of creating a monopoly, in which case you can be a douche or evil, you're only ever going to capture 30 plus 40% maybe of a market.”
Sacks: Department of Energy loan portfolio is all Solyndras without Tesla
“So Elon was basically a fluke. I mean, you get like a once in a generation entrepreneur who happened to be working on this EV problem and he got that loan. If you're to take Elon out of that government portfolio, it all looks like Solyndra.”
Gerstner: Domestic battery loans are a once-in-a-generation national security opportunity
“I think this is a once in a generation opportunity to reduce our national security Risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative, which is energy independence.”