Jul 14, 2023 · 1h 28m · allin
E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Jason Calacanis · 26m spoken David Sacks · 23m spoken David Friedberg · 15m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 12m spoken Producer Nick · 1s spoken
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In Episode 137 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts analyze cooling inflation data, market rally dynamics, landmark regulatory defeats for the SEC and FTC, electric vehicle inventory strains, and geopolitical tensions at the NATO summit. The episode also features Shopify's AI sidekick demonstration, anti-aging science breakthroughs, and signature co-host banter.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.8 Guest teaching 4.2 Guest disagreement 3.4 The hosts pushing back 3.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 32:04 Sacks cuts off Jason's live reading of the Ripple verdict
Sacks forcefully interrupts Jason as he attempts to analyze the Ripple ruling in real time, aggressively asserting that Ripple won outright and dismissing Jason's nuanced interpretation.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 33:27 Jason refuses Sacks' total exoneration framing on RippleJason firmly rejects Sacks' framing of complete vindication for Ripple, directly reading the court ruling that established Ripple committed federal securities violations in $728 million of direct institutional sales.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:08:20 Sacks details the US artillery production bottleneckSacks educates the panel on military logistics by citing monthly production figures for 155mm artillery shells, explaining how supply exhaustion forced the US to send controversial cluster munitions.
The host holds their own ▶ 47:15 Jason articulates a tactical regulatory framework for anti-trustJason demonstrates domain expertise by outlining actionable regulatory targets for the FTC, contrastingly advocating for targeted enforcement against dark patterns, bundling, and predatory pricing.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Easing & The Interest Rate Debate | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | Jason prompts the panel on inflation and interest rate trajectories, challenging Chamath's timing on when the equity market bottom was set. Chamath counters that recent gains were driven by short-term cost-cutting rather than true product adoption. | |
| Software Index Multiples & Soft Landing Expectations | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Sacks presents CPI and software valuation multiples charts to argue for potential market upside. Chamath interjects to argue that the software index chart is unhelpful because it focuses on unprofitable software companies. | |
| SaaS Business Models & Profitability Debates | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | Chamath claims SaaS companies struggle to generate free cash flow due to rapid competitive feature copying. Sacks pushes back, calling Chamath's view a broad overgeneralization and highlighting high gross margins and category dominance. | |
| Structural Inflation, Government Spending & Labor Supply | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Friedberg outlines structural inflationary forces including global security and energy transition spending. When Jason questions where labor will come from, Sacks corrects his assumption by noting labor participation can increase. | |
| Consumer Resilience & Ending Liquidity Stimulus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Jason synthesizes five factors winding down consumer liquidity, including student loans and stimmy money. Chamath agrees and elaborates on how underlying consumer demand remains resilient through debt buffer mechanisms. | |
| Economic Scenarios: Coatue Summit 2x2 Matrix | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Sacks introduces Coatue's macro scenario matrix while Friedberg cites dropping Disney World foot traffic. Chamath reinterprets Disney's drop as a brand backlash over culture war involvement rather than macro weakness. | |
| Regulatory Shift: Ripple SEC Verdict & Crypto Impact | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Sacks interrupts Jason's live reading of the Ripple ruling to proclaim a decisive victory against the SEC. Jason pushes back by pointing out that Ripple was found guilty of securities violations regarding institutional sales. | |
| FTC's Microsoft-Activision Loss & Regulatory Overreach | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Chamath criticizes the FTC's losing streak on the Microsoft-Activision deal as scattershot. Sacks defends anti-trust intervention in principle, arguing Big Tech monopolies require structural oversight like breaking up Google. | |
| FTC Regulatory Overreach, Anti-Trust, and Crypto Precedents | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | Jason outlines a precise anti-trust strategy for the FTC focusing on dark patterns, interoperability, and predatory product dumping. The panel agrees that targeted regulation is far better than broad M&A blocking. | |
| Debate on Breaking Up Google and Online Censorship | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Sacks reiterates his desire to shatter Google following content moderation bans on RFK Jr. Friedberg defends free market forces, asserting consumers naturally discipline companies by withholding attention and dollars. | |
| Electric Vehicle Inventory Glut, Tesla, and Industrial Policy | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Sacks highlights a 92-day EV inventory backlog, blaming administration subsidies for propping up uncompetitive legacy auto EVs. Jason adds that high interest rates and charging network gaps remain major headwinds. | |
| Fiscal Policy, Government Spending, and Political Candidates | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Sacks corners Jason on whether the economy succeeds because of or in spite of Biden's fiscal policies. Jason admits federal deficit spending makes him a single-issue voter while rejecting Sacks' partisan framing. | |
| BRICS Currency, Dollar Hegemony, and Crypto Landscape | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Sacks details BRICS plans for a gold-backed currency, noting BRICS GDP on a purchasing power parity basis now exceeds the G7. Jason notes this economic shift could bolster demand for decentralized scarce assets. | |
| All-In Summit Announcements and Shopify's AI Sidekick | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Housekeeping segment covering speaker announcements for the upcoming All-In Summit and a brief highlight of Shopify's AI Sidekick assistant. | |
| NATO Vilnius Summit, Ukraine War, and Ammunition Crisis | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | Sacks critiques Zelensky's diplomacy at the NATO summit and details the US 155mm artillery shell shortage. Jason pushes back on Zelensky's motivations and defends providing cluster munitions given Russian usage. | |
| Geopolitical Calculus and the Strategic Role of NATO | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | Jason steel-mans NATO expansion as an effective deterrent against Russian aggression. Sacks counters that mandatory interoperability rules turn NATO expansion into a lucrative vendor lock-in program for defense contractors. | |
| Science Corner: Reversing Epigenetic Cellular Aging | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg presents groundbreaking research from Harvard/MIT showing six small-molecule cocktails capable of reversing epigenetic cellular aging without genetic viral vectors. | |
| Chamath's Big Night and Wine Hangover Discussion | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Casual closing banter about Chamath's champagne hangover, previous episode scheduling drama, and host camaraderie. |
Statements from this episode (32)
Friedberg: Decoupling from China will ultimately raise consumer prices
“A decoupling from China, which is inflationary because, you know, China provides cheap goods and cheap manufacturing for a lot of industries and many of those industries sell to consumers. So ultimately those prices are going to show up in consumer Costs.”
Chamath: Stock market bottom will form in the next 12-18 months
“I think right now in the next sort of like, 12 to 18 months is really when the bottom is put into the market. It's before the fed starts cutting.”
Calacanis: Personal tech stock portfolio is up 25% since mid-2022
“I did J trading starting last summer and I'm up whatever, 25%, something crazy like that because I picked all the big tech companies.”
Chamath: Nvidia is the only major tech company firing on all cylinders
“The reality is those seven companies. One of them, Nvidia, is actually firing on all cylinders. Everybody else just stopped acting like a fucking moron.”
Chamath: Legacy software companies except Salesforce remain unprofitable
“All of the old legacy software companies, ex of Salesforce, have still not got to profitability.”
Chamath: Long-term software business profitability has been a fallacy
“The idea that software businesses generate long-term profits is so far, unfortunately been a fallacy.”
Friedberg: Inflation and spending will drive higher interest rates in U.S. and EU
“Over time that translates into a way to manage the inflation, but also to raise the capital, which means you have to pay higher rates. And this is in the EU and the U S that it seems this is going to be the case.”
Chamath: Tightening finances will force people back into the labor market
“We're going to get people off the sidelines into the labor market.”
Sacks: US economy may avoid recession and see rate cuts in 2024
“What you're seeing over the last few weeks, it's just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing. That we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.”
Chamath: Culture war backlash caused Disney's theme park traffic decline
“So the fact that Disney has been decaying for the past year Is more emblematic of the fact that they've gotten into this social culture war and half the population of America said, we're not going to support your business like they did to Bud Light.”
Friedberg: 80% of new and 40% of used car purchases are financed
“So, 80% of new car purchases are financed, meaning you take out a loan to buy the car. 40% of used cars are financed, and interest rates on car loans, as you guys can see in this chart, in just the last year or so, interest rates have spiked from under four pe…”
Calacanis discloses stock purchases in Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, and Netflix
“I bought the stock and it's the one thing in my J trading portfolio I've gotten crushed on that and Warner Brothers Discovery. I made two entertainment bets and what I think are the two best companies. I also did Netflix, but one out of three ain't good.”
Chamath: SEC loss in Ripple case handcuffs actions against crypto exchanges
“Yeah, and it really handcuffs the SEC. What are they going to do about Coinbase and every other exchange? I mean, if they're not selling securities, I think Coinbase and everybody else has always maintained they're selling tokens. This was the fulcrum argument…”
Chamath: FTC under Lina Khan relies on emotionally reactive litigation
“I think the Lena Conn thing is very different. I think this was a nuanced argument that the SEC made that required a highly sophisticated interpretation of securities law, and you're supposed to go to the courts for that. I think what the FTC has been doing is…”
Sacks: Restricting tech M&A suppresses risk-taking and capital deployment
“There's so few ways to have a good exit in the tech industry that when you take away M&A. It puts a damper on all risk taking and the deployment of risk capital into the ecosystem.”
Sacks: Classifying all tokens as securities will end US crypto innovation
“If you basically come out and say that there's no such thing, As a token that every single token is basically a security, then that's the end of crypto as a potential center of innovation.”
Chamath: FTC wastes taxpayer money funding frivolous lawsuits tech giants win
“And I think it just wastes taxpayer money by funding these frivolous lawsuits that then sophisticated organizations like Microsoft and meta just win.”
Calacanis: FTC Chair Lina Khan is punishing tech for being successful
“I think she is absolutely doing Biden's bidding. With an anti-tech, anti-wealth creation, anti-capitalism, frankly, pro-union punishment. I think this is punishment for tech being too successful.”
Sacks: Google should be shattered into a thousand pieces
“I said that after they banned the Jordan Peterson RFK interview, that we should shatter Google into a thousand pieces and scatter to the winds.”
Sacks: US EV inventory grew nearly 350% to over 92,000 units
“The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has grown nearly 350% this year to more than 92,000 units, which is a 92 day supply of EVs, whereas by comparison dealers have 54 days worth of gasoline powered cars in inventory.”
Calacanis plans to vote for Chris Christie in the 2024 presidential election
“I'm going to vote for Chris Christie, I think.”
Sacks: Financial markets will eventually force U.S. fiscal discipline
“I think at the end of the day, the market's probably going to impose discipline on us. Yeah, you're right. The cost of borrowing will become so painful.”
Sacks: BRICS nations are about to launch a gold-backed currency
“The BRICS countries are about to introduce an alternative currency that's based on gold.”
Sacks: BRICS nations surpassed the G7 in GDP on PPP basis
“If you look at them on a purchasing power parity basis, the BRICS countries just surpass the G seven in terms of GDP.”
Calacanis: Companies will fight the SEC in court instead of settling
“I think that's what's going to happen now. If ripple wins this, or, you know, if this ripple thing does work out appeals, whatever, then the standard operating procedure is fighting, no settlements.”
Sacks: US has basically run out of 155mm artillery shells
“The U S has basically run out of 155 millimeter artillery shells, which are the key type of ammunition that's using these howitzers and these tanks and so forth.”
Sacks: US gave cluster bombs to Ukraine because conventional ammo ran out
“If you're wondering why did the U.S. Give cluster bombs to Ukraine, it's because we're out of ammo to give, and it's all we've got left are these stockpiles of cluster munitions.”
Sacks: Adding countries to NATO is a liability, not an asset, for the US
“Every time you add a country to NATO, you're making a commitment for Americans to have to go defend that country. And I would argue that's a liability, not an asset for America.”
Sacks: NATO members must spend 2% GDP on approved Western defense contractors
“Because all these countries, when they join NATO, agree to spend two percent of their GDP on defense. And they can only spend that money on defense contractors who are interoperable with the NATO platform, which is basically these approved Western contractors.”
Friedberg: High Atlantic sea temperatures likely to drive record hurricane season
“That's likely going to drive the biggest hurricane season we've ever seen this coming season.”