Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire: Consumers will never use Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee
“No one's going to buy a cup of coffee with a bitcoin, etc.”
Disclosure
Allaire: Circle stablecoins are fully reserved with ultra-safe assets
“The model that we built, which is fully reserved with, like, Ultra safe assets and, you know, have, we have regulators look after it and auditors look after it and make sure it's all done the right way.”
Insight
Allaire: Mainstream crypto adoption requires integrating with traditional finance and regulators
“If you want it to work that way, well, you know, you have to integrate with the existing system, and you have to work with policymakers to figure that out. There's just no other way.”
Insight
Allaire: Policymakers engage when tech founders proactively address real risks
“I found over the years that if you come into a policymaker or a regulator and you say, hey, there's this, there's a new technology. It can improve things in this way. We're trying to figure out how to deal with the risks. There are real risks. Like, let's not …”
Assertion Supported
Allaire: Genius Act prohibits Circle from paying interest to stablecoin holders
“Under the Genius Act, Circle, as a payment stablecoin issuer, we're prohibited from paying interest directly to stablecoin holders.”
Disclosure
Allaire: Circle has more bank engagement than ever before
“We're having more engagement with more banks In the world than we've ever had before.”
Disclosure
Allaire: A global bank moves internal funds using USDC
“There's a global systemically important bank we work with who's actually moving their own money between their own global branches using USDC, because it's faster than going through the correspondent banking system.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire: Circle and regulators will figure out stablecoin reward mechanisms
“I think you know, we'll, we'll figure out this rewards thing. I'm very sure.”
Assertion Supported
Allaire: USDC is growing faster than other major stablecoins
“USDC, amongst the largest stablecoins, has been growing faster.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Allaire: The legal electronic money TAM is currently 120 trillion dollars
“The TAM Of legal electronic money today is about a 120 trillion dollars, and growing because of monetary easing and things like that, but Of that there's about 60 trillion dollars, which is physical cash and non-interest-bearing demand deposits, so kind of wor…”
Assertion Partly supported
Allaire: Circle saw 1,000% annual USDC growth during low interest rates
“When interest rates were actually very low we saw a thousand percent year over year growth two years straight.”
Insight
Allaire: USDC circulation growth is inversely correlated with interest rates
“We've had a multi-hundred percent increase in the amount of USDC in circulation, and so there's an inverse correlation there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire predicts tech forces will break 4% unemployment and 2% inflation targets
“Four percent unemployment, two percent interest rates. Both of those are going to be challenged. Yeah. Both of those are going to be challenged because of very significant techno Technological and macro forces.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: US labor participation is 61-62%, down from 68-69% peak
“Labor, I think labor participation now is 61 or 62%. And then when you and I were coming up, it had peaked at 68, 69%.”
Disclosure
Circle received conditional approval for First National Digital Currency Bank
“We've received conditional approval for something called First National Digital Currency Bank, which is a national trust bank that we're setting up to be part of how we operate USDC as well.”
Opinion
Jeremy Allaire: Marginal value of a new dollar stablecoin is zero
“The marginal value of a net new dollar stablecoin coming into the market is essentially zero.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeremy Allaire predicts companies will not build proprietary stablecoins
“Yeah, I don't see that. I think this is a lot like other internet platform markets. Like, everyone doesn't need their own data center. Everyone didn't need their own vertical search engines. Yeah. You know, everyone, you know, there are a lot of things that pe…”
Assertion Supported
Allaire: Circle operates the largest euro-based stablecoin
“We have the largest euro-based stablecoin.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Allaire: Stablecoins are coming to Japan, Brazil, Philippines, and other markets
“In the Philippines, or in Mexico, or in Brazil, or in Japan, and other markets, or Australia, Korea, there are stablecoins coming”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Allaire: World's largest electronic market firms are top USDC users
“You know who the biggest users of USDC are? It's actually, it is a form of gamblers, which is, it's the biggest electronic markets firms in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Allaire: Trillions of dollars in transactions are invoiced annually through QuickBooks
“And actually, QuickBooks, you know, they invoice people through QuickBooks. And it's actually trillions of dollars of transactions a year that are invoiced through QuickBooks.”
Assertion Contradicted
Allaire: Trillions of dollars in loans have been issued via stablecoins in DeFi
“Well, so already today there have been trillions of dollars of loans made in stablecoins through DeFi protocols.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire: AI and blockchain credit models can increase money velocity
“I think these kinds of credit intermediation models powered by AI and blockchain networks can actually further increase money velocity.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire predicts AI will drive extraordinary GDP growth over next 15 years
“I think we're going to see an acceleration of GDP growth. Pick, pick your time frame. Three, five, 10, 15 years. Like, we're gonna see, I think, an extraordinary period of economic growth acceleration.”
Insight
Allaire: Managing AI agents is essential to becoming a better corporate leader
“If you're a great manager at Circle, probably one of the best things that you can learn how to do is manage AI. And so, you know, invest in how you manage AI and AI agents. Actually, that's how you might actually become a better manager and leader through that…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire predicts AI will force rethinking of taxes and social contracts
“All that's, I think, in the coming years gonna kind of have to get thought about again. In different ways. And I don't think it's gonna, it's not gonna be the straightforward answers that we've turned to.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis states half of Americans do not own equities
“Half the country doesn't own equities.”
Insight
Kurtz: LLMs empower less-skilled hackers to execute nation-state level cyberattacks
“You're minting new adversaries because you don't have to have all the knowledge that you had to have in the past. You can ask any number of LLMs and you can get answers back. So what's happened is the attack timeline has been compressed. You can automate all o…”
Assertion Partly supported
Kurtz: Hackers are deploying prompt-only autonomous malware that interacts with LLMs
“What we're seeing now is prompt only autonomous malware, meaning I can drop the prompt on your computer by a variety of means, and then it will autonomously interact with an LLM, and it will give a unique fingerprint every time it runs.”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz: Modern AI cyber threats can run autonomously without phoning home
“Now these can run autonomously whatever, without ever phoning home.”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz: CrowdStrike uncovered hundreds of North Korean operatives working as US engineers
“Well, it, it's hard to find these guys, but any event we found 40 of them. We were right. 40 of them. That, that's for the first run. We found hundreds now over.”
Insight
Kurtz: Top companies embed cybersecurity personnel in HR to filter AI resumes
“So, what we're seeing now is the best companies are actually embedding a security person in the HR group, where they're pre-filtering all these resumes, because the resumes are AI generated, the LinkedIn profiles are AI generated, so you want to catch them up …”
Disclosure
Kurtz: CrowdStrike has never operated or generated revenue in China
“We don't have operations there. We don't have any revenue. We don't sell them to China. Never have. From the start of the company.”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz: China directly hands stolen US trade secrets to its domestic companies
“The big thing with China is, there's a commercial aspect to what they do. So if the government breaks in and steals a trade secret from some company in the U.S., they'll just give it to another company in China.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurtz: Nation-state hackers will always break into a target phone if determined
“If you look at the nation states and some of the creative ways they can actually get into a phone, as an example, if they want to get in bad enough, they're going to get in.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurtz: All software contains unpatched zero-day vulnerabilities
“There are zero days in all software”
Insight
Kurtz: Help desk speed incentives create major cybersecurity vulnerabilities
“So their whole job is to open a ticket, solve a problem, close a ticket. So if you follow the money and the incentives, you can see why there's a problem and people want to be helpful at the help desk and hence they get into the situation.”
Insight
Kurtz: The web browser is the primary front door for cyber adversaries
“So it's the front door now for how people work and how adversaries get in us through the browser.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurtz: Two AI agents collaborated to bypass enterprise administrative security guardrails
“These two agents are reasoning and they went right around The guardrails that were put in place.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kurtz predicts each corporate employee will eventually control 90 AI agents
“On average, each employee is going to have about 90 agents they control.”
Disclosure
Kurtz: CrowdStrike uses internal SLMs and guardrails when leveraging LLMs
“We, well, we have our small language models, and we do work with just about all of the large language models. But we've built our own guardrails around what gets shared, how it gets shared, and how we process any of the data back.”
Insight
Kurtz: Companies shouldn't try to replicate billions in frontier AI R&D
“For other bigger, you know, frontier type models, I mean, you're not going to replicate billions in R and D you want to leverage what's out there and take the best of it.”
Disclosure
George Kurtz acquired a 5% ownership stake in the Mercedes F1 team
“Just last fall I put a deal together and own five percent of the Mercedes team now.”
Insight
Kurtz: Rising geopolitical tensions consistently drive increased cybersecurity activity
“Whenever you see the geopolitical tensions go up, there's always more security activity”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurtz: Trump administration takes platform-focused, business-first cybersecurity approach
“When you think about what the administration is doing with security, they're taking a business first approach. You know what that means? They want to save money. They want to consolidate. They want platforms. They want better outcomes. Right. And they don't wa…”
Assertion Supported
Goldstein: A Trump executive order is fast-tracking the eVTOL regulatory framework
“President Trump issued an executive order that was fast tracking the program through the regulators and really starting to create a platform for us to launch.”
Disclosure
Goldstein: Archer Aviation won exclusive flight partner rights for LA 2028 Olympics
“We won the exclusive for the L.A. 20 Olympics.”
Disclosure
Goldstein: Archer Aviation recently acquired LA's Hawthorne Airport
“We also recently bought the Hawthorne Airport, right, outside of LAX, to help give us a hub.”
Assertion Supported
Archer Aviation spent around $170M on Hawthorne Airport acquisition
“It's around one hundred and seventy million dollars for everything, including the FBO and all the real estate around it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: Early eVTOL launch locations will likely include Texas and Florida
“I think it's probably going to be a lot of red states you'll see. So my guess is you'll see something in Texas. You'll probably see something in Florida. Maybe you'll see something in New York.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: Municipalities will loosen helipad rules for safer eVTOLs
“That being said, this is a safer platform than what already exists, helicopters, so I think there'll be a lot of loosening of that because it's just increasing safety to something they already do.”
Assertion Supported
Goldstein: New York City is the largest US helicopter market
“It's already the biggest helicopter market in the US.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: eVTOL fleets will scale to hundreds of aircraft in 5-10 years
“So you can start with maybe tens of aircrafts and then, you know, maybe over five, 10 years, you scale it up to hundreds of aircrafts.”
Assertion Supported
Goldstein: Archer Aviation has raised around $4 billion
“So we've raised around four billion dollars.”
Disclosure
Goldstein: Going public via SPAC was definitely right for Archer
“And this was the right avenue for us for sure.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: Archer eVTOLs are safer, quieter, and cheaper than helicopters
“It's safer than helicopters. They're super quiet. They cost less.”
Disclosure
Goldstein: Archer Aviation conducts flight operations in California and UAE
“So two core places we fly. One is in Northern California in the Bay Area. So we fly at a Salinas, the airport there, which is about 90 minutes south of the Bay Area, and then also in the UAE.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Adam Goldstein expects to fly in Archer's eVTOL aircraft in 2026
“Later this year, that'd be my guess.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: LLMs will first bridge pilot-to-machine communications in aviation autonomy
“With the advancements of LLMs, it actually allows this interesting period of time where you can now communicate with a machine in a way you couldn't really before, and so there's this probably middle ground that happens where there's pilots talking to machines…”
Assertion Partly supported
Goldstein: Archer's aircraft uses 24 redundant motors for 12 rotors
“Yeah, there's actually redundant motors. There's actually 24, but we, for simplicity, call it 12.”
Assertion Partly supported
Goldstein: Archer's eVTOL aircraft can glide up to 10 miles
“We have a big fifty-foot wing, you can glide, the glide ratio is huge, you can get up to max 10 miles of glide, so you can do a lot of things here.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: The World Economic Forum in Davos discourages talk of defense
“There is another element where, you know, Davos is sort of a non-defense oriented. They don't like you to talk about defense here.”
Disclosure
Goldstein: Archer Aviation partnered with Anduril to build autonomous military aircraft
“We do have a really strong partnership with Anderil. And so we've been building the new kind of autonomous, attributable aircrafts.”
Disclosure
Archer Aviation builds aircraft airframes while Anduril adds military systems
“We build the core aircrafts, and Andrel missionizes it, so think sensors or munitions, those kind of things.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg refused meetings with Archer Aviation
“I could not get a meeting with the former Secretary of Transportation.”
Disclosure
Goldstein: Davos Attendees Are Obsessed With Potential U.S. Greenland Purchase
“And I will get asked that question in nearly every meeting. And I mean, literally, back in Silicon Valley, I, like, no one, I mean, yes, we've heard it on the news, of course, yes, of course, it's important, but people aren't talking about it on an every hour …”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe Cloud is vertically integrated across energy, data centers, and AI
“We're a vertically integrated business, which means we're focused on not just the compute layer, but also the energy development, the data center development as well as the, you know, application layer where we're, you know, running things like our managed inf…”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe built a 350-megawatt gas plant for a Texas data center
“We have a 1.2 gigawatt substation there. We've also built a 350 megawatt gas plant on site. To energize one of the largest clusters of GPUs in the world.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe placed a 1.2 billion dollar gas turbine order
“Now we're, you know, their first large purchase order for 1.2 billion dollars of, ah, gas turbines to power AI, critical AI infrastructure.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lockmiller: Crusoe Cloud has 8,000 workers on site in Abilene, Texas
“So in Abilene today, we have 8000 people on site every day.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe Cloud will employ 2,000 permanent staff in Abilene
“Long-term, we're going to have about 2000 permanent workers at the campus.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe Cloud plans to build a 10-gigawatt data center in Wyoming
“We have another project in outside Cheyenne, Wyoming, that we've announced we're planning to build a 10 gigawatt campus.”
Insight
Lockmiller: Syncing massive AI GPU clusters causes extreme power draw fluctuations
“When you're deploying giant clusters of GPUs you know, the entire data center is acting as a single computer. It's running one single workload that's training some breakthrough foundational model. And what that results in is actually massive load fluctuations …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lockmiller: Crusoe runs an off-grid AI data center cheaper than grid power
“We actually deployed a fully off-grid solar plus battery energy storage system that powers an AI data center, 24 hours around the clock, with a power price that's lower than the power price in Northern Virginia.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Crusoe CEO Lockmiller: No leading AI lab has enough compute
“Nobody has enough compute. None of the, you know, leading labs, none of the leading application companies can get their hands on enough compute.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe Cloud sees compute demand accelerate going into 2026
“No, we're seeing things accelerate.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe secured a 15-year Oracle off-take agreement in Texas
“We have a long-term lease agreement with Oracle. Right, so we have a long-term, you know, fifteen-year off-take agreement with Oracle and so they're committed to sort of paying us for that, you know, time frame. So that helped unlock a lot of the construction …”
What-if
Lockmiller: Competitors would quickly absorb compute capacity if OpenAI failed
“Imagine, imagine they did go out of business. The reason they'd go out of business is because some other model company, whether it be, you know, Anthropic or Gemini or Grok, like really blew them out of the water. But if that were to happen, the group that mas…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Lockmiller predicts AI data center racks will reach 1 megawatt density
“The next generation, Vera Rubin, is gonna be 250. And then Vera Rubin Ultra is expected to be 600. We're ultimately gonna get to one megawatt racks.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe has over 45 gigawatts in its development pipeline
“Crusoe has over 45 gigawatts in our pipeline”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Lockmiller: Crusoe aims to energize an SMR-powered AI data center in 2027
“We're actually hoping to energize the first AI, AI factory powered by an SMR in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Disclosure
Lockmiller: Crusoe Cloud will add 2,400 full-time employees this year
“We're gonna add 2400 people this year. Full-time employees. And then tens of thousands of contractors.”