The Ledger, every show

“We believe that it's about a hundred forty billion today. It'll be about three hundred billion this year, and it'll double in twenty-twenty-seven.”

“I actually think it would go up, not down, even if they did something like that.”

“I think, and this is order of magnitude correct, that Anthropic in Q-one added 70% of the net new ARR in the SaaS industry, right, defined by public SaaS companies, right?”

“That doesn't include three companies that we know will be coming public pretty shortly, SpaceX obviously in the next few weeks, and we know Anthropic just today, the headlines hit that they've submitted confidentially for their S-one.”

“We estimate that only, not only is it bigger than Azure, but by the end of the year it could be bigger than AWS and potentially bigger than all of Microsoft. By twenty-twenty-eight.”

“Anthropic in particular is scaling like no other company that we've ever seen.”

“So the data showed us that if you're a unicorn, the odds of you one day becoming a Decacorn are about eight percent. If you're a Decacorn, so that means you're over ten billion, the odds of you becoming a hundred billion dollar company, not much better. Eight …”

“I believe that within a few years, Starlink will power a device which will actually enable you to make a phone call anywhere in the world.”

“That I think Will be kind of a generational kind of company.”

“I think to me what will happen is the analytics are going to get so much better. And these systems are going to know and they're going to be able to look at your, WhatsApp, and your messages, and your emails, and all of your calls, and they're going to be able…”

“So one of two things are going to have to change. Either companies are going to have to benefit from AI and re-accelerate the top line. And I think if you, again, listen to the workday earnings call yesterday, Anil, the CEO, essentially said his job is to come…”

“What I can tell you is not a single one of the companies that we're kind of involved with is saying, wow, we're seeing so much more efficiency. We want to cut our engineering staff in half, right?”

“Look, I think to me, number one, I still think NVIDIA, right? I don't see the GPU kind of getting displaced. I see additional architectures kind of coming on board, right? And growing the market. But at the end of the day, all roads still lead to the GPU for a…”

“It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share.”

“But if China, if one day China had 10 XR power capacity, it won't even matter, right? Because they'll just have so many more, whether they're not quite the same advanced GPUs or not, they'll just have so many more of them. Their industrial AI capacity will be …”

“If we don't get these companies to go public in my opinion, we are as an industry gonna have to face really hard questions with the ultimate funders of our industry, who, by the way, are not our funds, but are the investors in our funds, right? And eventually,…”

“We can see that the unicorn economy on average since September of 24 is up 70%.”

“So mathematically, if you put both together, you can see that the funding per unicorn has increased five X since 2021.”

“It represents almost four trillion dollars of value, and has really crushed the traditional kind of mag seven. Almost every single one of these names has outperformed that index.”

“The number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches.”

“We believe that a wide variety of companies and governments and militaries will want to own their own constellations so they can control their own destiny.”

“We estimate, currently, that about a quarter of ads served by Meta and Google are AI-enabled.”

“Shown that Anthropic even had a profitable month, I believe, is what was reported.”

“Jack came out and just said, no, I'm pivoting the entire infrastructure of this company for an AI era. We think you're going to need to be remote. Because you're going to move faster if you're remote, and so he's kind of laid out a whole vision about how he wa…”

“Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI.”

“You know, some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it”

“It's Open Evidence, by the way, is the name of the company, and already a third of U.S. Physicians are on the platform using it, you know, 10 times a day to kind of help diagnoses.”

“To that point it's interesting to think that the AirPod business at Apple is three X opening eyes revenue based today.”

“If you look at SaaS in 2021, The median growth rate for SaaS companies was 17%, and a quarter of those were growing over 25%, ok? If you look at SaaS today, The growth rate has been cut in half, 17% to nine percent, and only five percent of that cohort is now …”

“If you look at the cohort of companies that went IPO in 20, 21, right? And I'm actually not including SPACs in this particular analysis, right? If you look at that cohort T plus one year, The cohort was down about 40% on average, right? Okay, fine. Maybe they …”

“We've seen Anthropic, we have data in here that I think it took him about a year to get to their first billion in revenue. It took him three months to get to the next billion, and then it took him two months to get to the one The next billion after that, right…”

“At the same time as AI comes in, now the company's lean and mean, innovates, outcompetes companies like Google and Meta, doubles the size of the company as the employee count is down over 35%.”

“So we get about a hundred million DAUs in the US, but the time spent on the platform is the equivalent of Facebook plus Instagram.”

“And we know that in total, 20, 25 CapEx for the top five players in the US is going to be three hundred and twelve billion, right?”

“By the way, another really interesting kind of corollary on this point is the US internet companies spend 20 X what the Chinese companies spend on capex.”

“The distributions from VCs back to their investors are essentially at all time lows. Almost back to financial kind of crisis levels.”

“There's more private companies in tech That are worth more than a billion than public ones.”

“Of all of the IPOs since 2020, if you look at the value created or destroyed from their IPO price, you can see it as a cohort, we've destroyed almost two hundred twenty five billion in market cap, offset by the value creation of 84. So, net negative as a cohor…”

“The fact is that since 2022, both in 22, 23, and 24, we had fewer IPOs than in 2008 and 2009, the depths of the financial crisis, and 2001 and 2002, post the greatest bubble in history in tech.”

“And he also gave me a non-public data point around his cloud business, which is now five hundred million of ARR, which was almost zero a few years ago.”

“So we think ultimately that in this era, the amount of memory per user could quintuple just based on the demand that these AI systems are requiring to provide their services.”

“Like you would have, if you had a ride sharing company, there were a 150 other ride sharing companies that you had to kind of get through just to then win your city, to then go and compete with all the other cities, to then at the end compete against Uber in C…”

“As soon as the company went public, ironically, Google's stock started working. Because they didn't come out and tell you, we want to kill Google, or we're replicating the internet. We're doing kind of something different. Both stocks ended up working.”

“What was interesting about this one is the projections and the scale of the business grew materially. In between the fundraising kind of being discussed to eventually kind of being announced. And I think that speaks to just the incredible adoption of clock cod…”

“Avago, as an example, is growing almost 40%, right, Avago Broadcom, and it's trading at a cheaper multiple of gap earnings.”

“Today a friend just sent me a chart showing the recovery of restaurants post-COVID, and LA is 50% behind on the recovery per store location versus the national average.”

“Over a decade ago, 90 plus percent of their gross profit was a one-time hardware sale on the iPhone. And no one thought that they would ever be able to get away from the drug of selling that one iPhone unit, right? And cut to, you know, over a decade later, it…”

“So it was interesting seeing that we think that on average, the max seven of us was basically flat year over year and yet tremendous value accretion to the top AI companies, right? Whether it's open AI or Anthropic or all kind of the following companies.”