The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Sam Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 43:58 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Solana will surpass Ethereum in market capitalization
“I think Solana flips Ethereum.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:48 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin: Early Salesforce was unintegrated one-off software builds
“So the story I've heard, and someone can correct me in comments, I'm sure someone will, is that when he started Salesforce, it was billed as like this cloud CRM. And this platform, but it was total bullshit. He basically went to a bunch of people and sold them…”
Sam Lessin Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 41:12 AI Agents Are Going Rogue. Should We Be Worried? │Claude vs. Grok, Tesla vs Waymo, Google vs Canva · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Partly held up
Sam Lessin: Getting humans to Mars during Trump's administration is impossible
“Everyone, you know, you're up there applauding like this, like window, we're going to get to Mars in Trump's administration. And it's absolute horseshit. Like we, like there aren't even window launch windows open for that to happen.”
Sam Lessin Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 20:46 #90: Silicon Valley Unscripted: Billionaires, AI, and Interplanetary Exploration · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Lessin claims Spotify fired its Wrapped team and used AI instead
“Well, and believe it or not, at least I saw on social media, they had fired the entire team. So this was, they were able to produce with no people using AI.”
Sam Lessin Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 21:46 #77: Sora Reveal, Google's AI Agents and Digital Trade Under Trump · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The 2024 Presidential Race Is Effectively Over for Democrats
“I just feel like this is over, right? Which I know is not what you're supposed to say, and, like, that helps purpose with town out and the whole nine yards, but, like, you know, Trump just had, like, one of the all-time ten-day periods ever, right?”
Sam Lessin Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 22:34 #56: Trump and the PayPal Mafia · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Lessin: Blackstone has only had one fund over 3x in 40 years
“It's like, in the history of Blackstone, they've raised, what is it, like, call it half a trillion dollars. That's again, that's not the number, but it's an enormous number of capital. They've had, like, one fund in, like, 40 years that has done more than thre…”
Sam Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 36:02 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 13:33 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Partly supported
Tesla and SpaceX trade at the world's highest revenue multiples
“Both Tesla and SpaceX are the two highest, I believe, like, dollars per dollar of revenue, or whatever you want to do, like, things in the world.”
Sam Lessin Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 6:18 SpaceX Hit $2.5 Trillion. Now Watch What Elon Buys Next. · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Boom Supersonic pivoted to supplying turbines for AI data centers
“And then AI, I think AI probably helped them with this, that they have a turbine they can use to run data centers, power for data centers. So they're not a supersonic company. They're just a jet engine company because they couldn't get anyone to sell them jet …”
Sam Lessin Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 12:58 Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Anthropic Is Now a $350 Billion Company
“Anthropik's now a three hundred fifty billion dollar company.”
Sam Lessin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 14:11 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Tesla will not receive robotaxi regulatory approval this year
“You forgot the most important line, which is you're not going to have regulatory approval.”
Sam Lessin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 13:33 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
TBPN Assertion Supported
Lessin: MrBeast spent more on his Amazon show than his $100M deal
“Like, you know, the, you know, everyone's excited that he gets a hundred million dollar Amazon contract, but then he spends more than that on the show, right?”
Sam Lessin Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 28:21 Sam Lessin on Meta, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing in Creators.
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: DJI announced removal of US restricted airspace flight limits
“At the same time, DJI, like today, announced the drone company that they're no longer limiting drones, like, from flying in restricted airspace in the United States, which I'm sure is actually unrelated, but it's a hilarious story.”
Sam Lessin Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 20:25 #82: TikTok, Trade Wars & Tech 2.0 · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Appointees exploit forced divestment for tax-free asset diversification
“There's this hack where some Goldman Sachs guys got cabinet positions and they're like, well, the reason they did that, or like at some level of seniority of the government is because you are forced to sell, but you don't have to pay taxes on the sale. And so …”
Sam Lessin Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 51:42 #80: More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 2 (Crypto and Antitrust) · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Ultra-wealthy use government cabinet positions to defer capital gains taxes
“There's this hack where some Goldman Sachs guys got cabinet positions and they're like, well, the reason they did that or like at some level of seniority of the government is because you are forced to sell, but you don't have to pay taxes on the sale. And so i…”
Sam Lessin Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 18:04 #73: Elon to Lead DOGE, Bitcoin Surges & the Trump Alliance · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Telegram is not actually end-to-end encrypted
“Telegram tells this whole story about encryption and pro free speech, but it's actually not end to end encrypted.”
Sam Lessin Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 13:21 #62: Telegram, Free Speech and Its Limits · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin: Nvidia Scrapped an LLM Over Scraping Netflix Content
“You know what also got reported this week was how NVIDIA scrapped their large language model they had been working on that had been stealing all this information, like, in content from Netflix and everyone else, and they realized, oh, shit, we really can't lau…”
Sam Lessin Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 28:04 #59: Google: Can it Outrun Regulation? · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: BYD surpassing Tesla eliminates its structural valuation premium
“They're not the biggest shipping EV company in the world anymore. It's that Chinese company. Everyone has EVs. That kind of like structural advantage that makes them dramatically more valuable or differentiated from car companies is gone.”
Sam Lessin Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 44:35 #43: TikTok’s New App, Tesla’s Sunken Stock, Are Tech Workers Leaving Silicon Valley For Good? · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: US politicians will not risk banning TikTok before 2024 election
“There's just no chance that in that environment they're gonna, like, risk any youth vote, even if they're terrible, woke people, for the sake of banning TikTok right now. And I think that sucks, because I think it is a huge national security risk, But I think …”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 5:51 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 12:37 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Sequoia and Reid Hoffman are major TikTok investors
“Sequoia's an enormous investor. It's like, Reid Hoffman, who's a huge Democratic donor and would have a lot of sway in Washington as a huge investor. Like, they're all investors.”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 12:51 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lessin predicts OpenAI's $86B secondary tender offer will not happen
“Which will not happen.”
Sam Lessin Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 16:53 #24: Sam Altman - Religious Cult Leader or CEO? · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Ad Copywriting Jobs Will Disappear in Three Months
“They're not going to have a job doing that in like three months.”
Sam Lessin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 46:44 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
20VC Assertion Supported
Lessin: VC funds are cutting target sizes amid LP pullback
“They're funds, they're cutting fund sizes left and right, and they're combining funds to bulk them up.”
Sam Lessin Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 57:36 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: LK-99 superconductor will successfully replicate before 2025
“I'll say yes on one-time replication, and I'll go further to say, like, this is my AI killer scenario, where, like, it's so disruptive if it happens, right, that, like, it's worth putting a lot of effort in trying to figure it out.”
Sam Lessin Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 50:52 #8: Where's the Barbie business pop? Why brands beat marketplaces · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Adobe's Figma acquisition will likely close despite scrutiny
“And it probably gets done, and even doesn't get done, whatever. Like, I don't think it really impacts the early stage market.”
Sam Lessin Jun 23, 2023 ▶ 9:29 #3: Mr. Beast's burger bust and will M&A ever return? · More or Less Podcast
20VC Prediction Held up
Cities will not allow scooter companies to be meaningfully profitable
“I don't think the cities are going to let the scooter companies be profitable or be meaningfully profitable.”
Sam Lessin Feb 4, 2019 ▶ 24:22 20VC: Slow Ventures' Sam Lessin on How VC Forces Certain Companies To Exist and Makes It Difficult To Finance Others, Why Cities Won't Let Scooter Companies Be Profitable and Why Dapps Are A Concern and Where Emphasis Should Be Placed In Crypto
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: AI survey shows lower approval rating than Jeffrey Epstein
“I believe that in a recent survey, AI has a lower approval rating than Jeffrey Epstein. It's, like, six percent.”
Sam Lessin Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 13:53 Silicon Valley IPO Summer 2026: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI Explained
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin notes most Sequoia assets sit in Heritage, not venture funds
“The venture funds are still the venture funds, but like most of the assets are not in the venture funds. They're in heritage.”
Sam Lessin Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 29:06 Apple Chooses Gemini, Sequoia's Leadership Shake-up, and Meme Coins · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Gavin Newsom called for Harvard president's resignation over Trump deal
“Gavin Newsom just out of the blue, just like called for the resignation of the president of Harvard for doing like any deal with Donald Trump.”
Sam Lessin Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 8:31 #112 Swift Should Buy Chrome, Not Perplexity · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Lessin: Scale AI competitors are already generating over $1 billion in revenue
“There are other people who do things that are very similar that do more than a billion.”
Sam Lessin Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 44:51 #103: Are Silicon Valley’s Mega-Deals Just Talent Grabs? · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: OnlyFans Is Up for Sale
“Nonetheless, OnlyFans, the story is up for sale and there's some really interesting stuff about it.”
Sam Lessin May 30, 2025 ▶ 2:57 #101: The Business of OnlyFans, Future of Identity, and Navigating Privacy in the AI Age · More or Less Podcast
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Supported
Lessin: Received more Harvard Board of Overseers votes than Ackman-backed candidates
“Bill Ackman had some people running. I got more votes than him. I got with incredibly close to getting it done, but didn't get it done.”
Sam Lessin May 17, 2025 ▶ 26:29 The Truth About AI: Sam Lessin’s Contrarian Take · Joe Lonsdale
TBPN Prediction Held up
Lessin: Fund-to-fund private sales will increase significantly in venture capital
“Private to private transactions are going to happen way more. Right. Like you're going to look just as it happened in private equity, like funds will sell the funds.”
Sam Lessin Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 12:37 Is Venture Capital Broken? | Sam Lessin on TBPN
MORE OR LESS Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Unlike AI, Facebook was massively profitable from its early days
“Facebook was massively profitable. From the early days, it was always almost zero cost from a user perspective. It was a great business from the very early days.”
Sam Lessin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 30:03 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Jelly Jelly Token Hit $200M Market Cap in Six Hours, Says Lessin
“We launched Jelly Jelly, right? Which as pod listeners remember, went in six hours from zero to like over a two hundred million dollar market cap on half a billion in volume, which was all these crazy people playing this game.”
Sam Lessin Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 21:23 #88: Meta’s $200B AI Bet, Instagram Reels & The Future of Content · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin: Meta Engineered Smart Glasses to Brick If Recording LED Disabled
“They spent so much time trying to figure out how to engineer it so that it would brick it if you try to disable that LED for exactly that reason. Like it's a wild, the amount of engineering that went into that, like, make sure the LED cannot be disabled for ex…”
Sam Lessin Feb 21, 2025 ▶ 54:50 #87: SKIMS To Revive Nike? AI Drama & The Satoshi Mystery · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: There Is Zero Percent Chance MrBeast Buys TikTok
“Oh, I was short that. There's a zero percent chance.”
Sam Lessin Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 24:20 #83: Trump Inauguration, Stargate, and the Meme Economy · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin: Sam Altman claimed AGI was 14 months away in 2023
“I mean, I, you know, you have people like Sam Altman on stage, you know, what now, 18 months ago saying we were 14 months from AGI and all the jobs were over, right?”
Sam Lessin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 15:09 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 in 2025
“Bitcoin 200,000.”
Sam Lessin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 53:54 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: EssilorLuxottica Does Not Manufacture Hardware for Meta Smart Glasses
“Look, Sadika, I promise you, is not making the hardware. Like, they make, they print lenses and, like, slap plastic on the brand and make a bunch of money on margin. Like, they're not a manufacturing company.”
Sam Lessin Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 45:30 #57: Zuckerberg’s Open Source AI Manifesto · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Sam Lessin Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 9:37 #44: The $1B AI Girlfriend Market, the Tech Hedge Fund Fallout and Why VCs Can’t Quit AI · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Elon Musk will still run Tesla in 12 months
“Yes. Unless he does some hissy fit about his compensation package and like.”
Sam Lessin Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 38:57 #43: TikTok’s New App, Tesla’s Sunken Stock, Are Tech Workers Leaving Silicon Valley For Good? · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Dude Perfect will secure $100M for their theme park
“Well, I don't know what's public or not, but they, I don't know if this is public. They're going to have that money.”
Sam Lessin Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 23:22 #41: Is AI Killing Media? · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The US will not ban TikTok in 2024
“No, TikTok won't be banned, but it should be.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 54:22 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: A Bitcoin ETF will finally be approved
“We will get a Bitcoin ETF, finally.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:35 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: NVIDIA stock will go up regardless of earnings report
“It literally doesn't matter what they report, the stock will go up.”
Sam Lessin Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 43:05 #11: Why hybrid work doesn’t work, long live the phone call · More or Less Podcast
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