The Ledger, every show

“The main fear is that a novel virus is, you know, invented, and then crispered, and we have serious problems. Which will definitely happen.”

“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”

“I think I saw this thing about Tim O'Reilly saying like, it's pretty obvious that like they stole all the proprietary information from Safari and like their books to like build it. And it's like, it's total. I'm sure it's true. We all know that they stole ever…”

“I didn't rug anything.”

“Guys, I've been saying OpenAI zero the entire time. And I'm gonna keep saying it.”

“And so if you're someone like me, who's in the camp of this is a great disruptive Business technology, and zero dollars will accrue to startups, and they're all going bankrupt. I am now a zealot for no fucking way, right?”

“I think Solana flips Ethereum.”

“Oh, no, to be clear, they're definitely stealing all my data as we go. There's no question about that.”

“So the story I've heard, and someone can correct me in comments, I'm sure someone will, is that when he started Salesforce, it was billed as like this cloud CRM. And this platform, but it was total bullshit. He basically went to a bunch of people and sold them…”

“AI is globally liquid with no borders and is easy to transport. So you're going to get the lowest cost provider. There's no money to make.”

“These things have big enterprise contracts. They're going to like milk those. They're going to Like, hack the CS, the customer support teams to zero because they can consolidate it.”

“And what's gonna happen from conquest perspective, digital conquest, will be, like, a bunch of these countries will try that. It will go badly. Shit will start breaking. They'll be like, oh, shit, we need, like, the Americans. We need the, we need someone to c…”

“Harnesses are stupid. Like, no one's gonna make money on a harness business, right?”

“The anthropic engineers will go to middle America and they're going to need a large security force.”

“Anthropic passed open AI.”

“The second cataclysm of AI is gonna be, you're just gonna, like, have all these agents running around doing crazy shit, and including things they have no idea what they're doing, and they'll check the APIs, be like, yeah, that thing works, and it sort of will,…”

“It's like whoever has cheap energy eventually wins as a commodity business with no defensibility.”

“I actually think that Silicon Valley, and at least, you know, let's call it your average PM slash engineer in Silicon Valley, hilariously did just completely disrupt themselves. You no longer have a stranglehold on anything in building, and the building is goi…”

“It's just like basically like for every hundred software engineering jobs, there's going to be one master of bots job created, right? It'll be, you know, a hundred x downshift.”

“Something would have to change in a dramatic fashion for Claude to not cross OpenAI in the next two months. Like, something weird would have to happen.”

“This is basically all gonna back to energy at some level. There's not gonna be that very much margin in it. And like, low cost intelligence production is going to be the key.”

“The, you know, the original narrative was someone would get to AGI and then that would be the end of the game is not how this is playing out. Everyone's gonna get to the same shit. It's all commodity. It's all getting a price to the cost of energy. And it's al…”

“AI is only going to accelerate that because people's sense of meaning goes away. So the market draws us towards cults and community, right? In these extremes and weird shit in order to like create a sense of purpose and meaning.”

“The latter is gone and the value doesn't get shared, which is how you're going to end up with revolutions”

“I actually think of anything like a lot of people who like had a skill that was valuable, and allowed them to a lot of comfort and like to feel like they had a role economically or whatever are just going to get eviscerated. And it's very possible it gets repl…”

“200,000.”

“You also can't make any money as a company who sells tokens or intelligence.”

“This is not good for open AI... The heavy brute force of LLMs is not a winner take all, it's not going to be an erase the AGI... The interesting game becomes on the edge and things like open claw are the decentralized version of it. So it becomes kind of irrel…”

“There's like 10 wizards in the world. And then everything else is done by machines. And then consumers are now just like writing software for themselves that happened to be communally updating it, but they're not developers anymore. They're just like participa…”

“I personally think that all this stuff just gets washed away, right? If you take out all the way, and they don't come back because there is no P-fifty job anymore. Like there's a P-ninety-nine job. If you truly the best in the world at something, you'll be fin…”

“What's going to happen at some point is someone's going to come out with one that's great. Right. And it's open and whatever, and it's free. And then you're going to be, and it's going to be totally controlled by like some hacker network that's going to do ter…”

“Well, they're just gonna go away.”

“I think that the venture capital, the seed venture capitalists who invest in companies that are branded as AI companies are going to lose an impossibly large amount of money in the coming years.”

“Even like, I think Gavin Newsom understands that it's a, it's also, by the way, terrible for his political career, because if this passes, he will never be president, which is clearly what he wants.”

“Imagine in the near future, you can have an AI driven girlfriend, right? Boyfriend, companion, whatever. That is exactly what you want, but digital. Always available, says that it does all the things you want, like is like a perfect companion in every possible…”

“NVIDIA will be down 15%.”

“Well then to the point is there's no lock-in, right? It's like, it's always, the only thing that changes it, which is, was the original pitch, was that we're so close to this, like, game over nuclear style outcome that someone will get to first, and then there…”

“I honestly think this is going to be, this year is like an absolute make or break for if open AI is a thing or not is my view.”

“I actually think there's a very strong argument you're making right now, which I agree with, that actually, like, ChatGPT will be, is not Kleenex. And like this will be a like branding blip in history.”

“This is one of the really strong anti-substack theories, which is like, you can't as an individual support these lawsuits. Like you can't afford it. It's actually quite expensive to be in the news gathering. It isn't quite risky. And so if you're going to do i…”

“That, like, that was, like I mean, I understand it's still probably number one in the free app store or something, but, like, it's not gonna work.”

“They're not going to break up the big tech companies because like, that's like the whole point is like they're trading partners of the big tech companies. They want to see them Win, in a lot of ways, on a global basis”

“Gary Tan, who runs YC, is a response to this, which is, PSA, do not attend SLO's Etiquette School”

“That's definitely what's gonna happen.”

“I would go super under on Stripe going out. Those guys are too smart. They have a totally different plan. They have no interest in the public market. And there's no point to them in going public. There's plenty of liquidity in their currency.”

“And like, that's why I think ultimately, like, the people like Google and Facebook do win, because like, they have a money making machine that regenerates the money. And so the money is free for them. Whereas like, if you're open AI, and you have to raise it, …”

“I bet it's going to be like 99%. That's how STEM works.”

“Like I've actually come out of this exercise more cynical even than I was a month ago. Right. Or even a few weeks ago that any of these are going to be good, sustainable businesses, despite the fact it's clearly going to be everywhere in the air.”