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“The emergence of CATL, which was essentially a company that was really invented in the back rooms of the industrial governmental complex in, in China about 12 years ago that, and it essentially just, you know, it followed the plan perfectly and is now the larg…”

“What they ended up trying to do was build, essentially build six gigafactories simultaneously, which is just an impossible task to handle. And I think that the, you know, that, that the concept of build, build, perfect, and then repeat was not applied. And the…”

“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”

“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”

“So I think what essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they…”

“If you are today shipping your spodumine to China to be made into lithium hydroxide then that's, if China does turn out to be a foreign entity of concern, that will disqualify that material for the tax credit. So right now, it is going to be qualified, but as …”

“The EV demand outside of China, because China is going to be less affected by this because the Chinese investment in lithium has been has kept track with future demand requirements in twenty-twenty-five. But outside of China, we think that we have pulled back …”

“Manganese is a inherently cheaper material and is going to end up, if they can make that middle bucket work really well, is going to be the, I think the most common Chemistry of choice for cars by the end of the decade.”

“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly. They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”

“What I think is the future is vehicle to grid. And the, if you truly do have a million mile battery, the idea that you can use the Not just to drive it, but as a stationary storage device while it's in the car, becomes a very real prospect.”

“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”

“There's essentially 18 stages that you're each with its own different types of equipment. And there's very few companies that make every one of those pieces of equipment. And especially there's very few Chinese, non-Chinese companies that, that have That, that…”

“And that, that number is now 25%, so it can't be a Chinese ownership having, Chinese company having an ownership of 25% or more, or else it becomes a foreign entity of concern, and therefore disqualifies you for the tax credit.”

“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others, and …”

“For most of these electric vehicle batteries of all of the minerals is going to be nickel. And then lithium and cobalt probably fall in second, but the single biggest number to shoot for is the nickel itself, and that's a problem because most nickel is coming …”

“If you are today shipping your spodumine to China to be made into lithium hydroxide then that's, if China does turn out to be a foreign entity of concern, that will disqualify that material for the tax credit. So right now, it is going to be qualified, but as …”

“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others have,…”

“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”

“They did not give guidance on how they define foreign entity of concern for the purposes of the EV tax credit. And, you know, they didn't give any guidance. They were asked very specifically, is, is a country a foreign entity of concern? Do you have to name th…”

“So you're essentially talking about somewhere around 30 to 40% price advantage, or advantage that this, a U.S.-made cell gets over a Chinese cell.”

“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”

“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”

“We're gonna be importing a lot of batteries from China for stationary storage applications.”

“What's really happening is we're moving more and more towards consolidation, and we're now, we now have a handful of seven or eight large companies that produce 85% of the batteries that are being made. And that trend is only increasing, not decreasing.”

“It's essentially about fourteen billion dollars in total, including money, actual capital raised essentially people saying we will contribute this amount in the future to future raises and tax credits, which were a large part of that fourteen billion.”

“The most famous, of course, is the first Tesla Gigafactory, which apparently they had close to half of their cells that they produced in the first year of that factory's production had to be discarded because they weren't getting the quality right.”

“There is a significant loophole, which is a de minimis ruling, which essentially says if there's a small amount of material come, that, that does get its way into, from China then that will, and specifically of materials that don't have high value, and that's …”

“I mean, there are graphite facilities being built today that should happen very relatively quickly and have a chance to be producing significant amounts of graphite in twenty-twenty-six.”

“What essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they added this…”

“And I still think there, there's going to be another big jump in activity over the next six months with this guidance.”

“In the case of Australia, they dig up the rock called spodumene, and then they ship it to China to be processed into lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate, and that processing part of the supply chain is actually done outside of a free trade partner country.”

“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”

“The, a good assumption to make is that it's, everything's going to be put into a bucket, 50% of the overall value of that battery has to be satisfied, but they haven't specifically said that yet.”

“So there will be a big push towards hydroxide processing probably in Australia, in Chile but also in the U.S. And Canada.”

“And of course, California and Texas are getting the lion's share of these, of what's going to be installed over the next two years.”

“We are expecting that by the end of the year or first quarter of next year, we will see a wave of announcements, and it's not just on the battery Factory front. It's the entire supply chain, and we're going all the way, you know, from mine to chemical refinery…”

“We think that we're going to get to about six percent by 2024, six percent of new cars sold will be EVs.”

“All, all of the companies are going towards that template where the car company now is going to be, in the future, the determinant of exactly what it, what those batteries are composed of.”

“I think we are entering a winter in that regard. And Those that did raise money and inevitably, you know, didn't spend it perfectly in a perfectly optimized, efficient way are now going to are going to be weeded out.”

“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”

“On the anode side, it's going to be for this next decade, it's, we're still going to be living in a graphite dominated world with more and more silicon coming into the The anode, but it's still going to be mostly graphite”

“There were probably close to 100 Chinese battery manufacturers, and today there's 10 that, that matter and that do it at scale, and really there's two that, that completely dominate the industry, and that's BYD and CATL.”

“The U.S. Will, in the next few years, have close to 300 gigawatt hours.”

“And graphite is of course going to be one of the most severely challenged areas of battery materials, because today all graphite essentially is coming from China.”

“Now it's time limited, so this is gonna expire in 2032, but through that time you can sell as many cars as you possibly can. You'll get the tax credit for it if you qualify for all of the qualifications you need to jump through.”

“That is, that starts at 40%, And again, goes up by 10% each year and reaches a cap of 80% by twenty-twenty-seven.”

“So on a sell basis, our average EV price today for batteries is about a 140 dollars per kilowatt hour. It's gone up significantly because of the increase in the battery materials prices.”

“California has about five gigawatt hours worth of batteries, almost all of which have come, come in the last 36 months, and essentially kept California from going into rolling blackouts in the recent heat wave.”