The Ledger, every show

“Within a couple of quarters, Anthropic will be visibly and obviously ahead. Profitable, growing more quickly, and bigger.”

“You can have dispossessed urban poor forever, and nothing happens, but if you piss off the twenty-something-year-old middle class, the overeducated elites, they tend to cause trouble.”

“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”

“Because if you think everything in 20, 21 was either priced wrong and makes a one X or early and just totally wrong and makes, you know, less than one X, let's just say, right? Other than a few companies that were the early precursors of AI”

“We actually, in both of those cases, that's a pure pretense to get the government off of us, right? Everyone knows both of these companies are toast because in the case of Scale AI, in theory, Meta owns 50% of it, and in theory, their business is selling to ev…”

“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”

“The rank, the most, the big picture fact is the ranking has changed, and you're now number two. So you will go out later then and a lower price than the other guys, unless you change the trajectory massively.”

“I just say on Tropic and the Wall Street Journal, they believe their TAM is 30 trillion. And I, and then I say to myself, oh, I remember everyone when they're doing really well gets slightly delusional. Your time is, you know, the entire US GDP.”

“I think an area where, despite it being amazing for America and important for the world, I think the venture returns of the March might be tough will be defense, not because we don't need all these products, but because I think there's an element of that busin…”

“And the fact that they've lost that connection with developers, that GitHub is now a trailing edge product, is to me, over the medium term, a pretty significant loss.”

“They will go public because this is peak brass ring moment, and you know, you could argue the trends in 27 are tougher. You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT, so just put a nail in the entropic pit, right? You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT comfortably, OpenAI, to a poin…”

“While they're not saying they want to ban these things, they're advocating a series of steps that would add up to de facto banning or at least slowing them down.”

“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”

“Taking away advanced capabilities from U.S. And European corporations such that their only recourse is to use a Chinese open weights model seems a little like, you know, Jason said it right, shutting the barn door after the horse is bolted.”

“The reality is when you're getting open weights, you're not getting, it's not the same thing because all you get is the fixed weights that allow you to run the model. What you don't know is the black box inside those weights and how they work.”

“Zooming out a million miles, you know, my mental model is, I divide the AI world up into three buckets. It's the making AI, the infrastructure layer, right? And you're right, the spend there is eight, nine hundred billion dollars a year. Then there's the two f…”

“So many breakthroughs rely on a little bit of pushing the boundaries. I mean, Uber did with taxi regulation. Airbnb did with regulation. You're right. Polymarket did in terms of how they're regulated. So I'm actually going to get off my high horse and say you …”

“Microsoft owns 30% of OpenAI. If ownership stake resulted in besties, they'd be besties. They're not besties. They're in a stale marriage looking for a divorce, but can't quite pay, you know, pay the tax, right?”

“Two companies Have done the same thing, which is buy a load of compute to build proprietary assets, fail to build those assets, and then bring that, and then decide instead to sell that compute to others, and both of them have had a very positive market recept…”

“So when you zoom out a million miles, Microsoft, which is in the software business, unlike Apple, and therefore can't afford to stay apart from the great AI wars, other than its equity ownership in open AI doesn't have anything compelling to bring to the table…”

“The whole reason the OpenAI and Entropic models work is because other idiots have spent the three hundred billion dollars on their behalf.”

“My vent on that company is they have milked their users for so long that it just feels a piece of financial engineering interacting with the product. It's always the login are crap. I don't even understand the licensing model. I don't even know what I can use …”

“Because the European banks, unlike the American banks in general, are so crappy. There's a reason that Revolut's worth a hundred and fifteen billion, because the incumbent European banks were fat, dumb, and happy, and making margin off their customers.”

“Or where I stand, the statistic, the average over the last 200 years has been two percent. It'll stay at two percent.”

“And we've grown to accept that, that, you know, we're all here in the Valley with a plan. To automate white collar work such that there's going to be mass unemployment, according to these folks who are totally wrong, in my opinion, in three years, and all the …”

“They've rented that to Entropic for 1.25 billion a month, right, with a, I think, a ninety-day cancellation clause on either side.”

“We have people who are brilliant scientists who politically are utter morons, and the people who are utter morons at AI but brilliant at politics are gonna have us for lunch.”

“They're saying they're going public in November”

“The SaaS businesses are amazing, but the AI businesses are an order of magnitude of maybe two order of magnitudes larger and are at You know, earlier in their growth life cycle. So you're never going to get the attention back on you again.”

“And the people who are utter morons at AI but brilliant at politics are going to have us for lunch. That's the movie in the next three years. They're going to have Sam for lunch because he's lied to them as far as they're concerned, and they're going to have t…”

“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”

“And in Microsoft case, I really wish I even had a model that was worth a damn, which I don't.”

“They've been using this justification For the LLM spend as being, it'll optimize our existing business, and I've always felt that's bullshit, because if it takes a hundred fifty billion in capex to give a 10% lift on a two hundred billion dollar business, it's…”

“No compute equals no revenue, but compute and a shitty model also equals no revenue. See Grok for details, right?”

“There is a lot more fucking differentiation in putting rockets in the sky than there is making forking an open source IDE and running it on top of Claude code.”

“I don't think we're going to unemployed, 50% of white collar workers. I think it's madness. I think it has some legitimate dangers in cyber security and bioterrorism, but they're manageable.”

“Unless it gets its shit together and makes great agents, it's another IBM.”

“To me, even all these people change, you know, I, I'm tempted to make that, you know, that the famous Oscar Wilde quote in the importance of being earnest, you know, to lose one parent might be an accident when he was talking to the, this woman was talking to …”

“So I challenge that. I think it's a vanity project and absurd.”

“We just had a long conversation on Entropic versus OpenAI, And they're kind of number one and two in this space, and Gemini, Google is almost certainly number three, so x.ai is number four in the kind of model LLM space at best, burning twelve billion dollars …”

“The transition, having made one transition to Roloff and having had to make another transition abruptly means the first transition wasn't that successful.”

“And I think that's right because realistically, in the journey of what's going on, the only significant things we've done, I've said this before in the podcast, we put in the money and we put in more money when they need it. We decide to hire or not hire and f…”

“If you find your logic being reduced to, I've got to get rid of this much money this month, and this entrepreneur is amazing, so I'm not sure about the opportunity, and I don't like the price, but have a goal. If that's your logic, let me give you some advice.…”

“Over the, again, I want to be over the medium term, the technology takes longer to diffuse than we in Silicon Valley allow, and people are more adaptable. So over the medium, I'm not, I don't see any kind of 10% plus tech of an unemployment.”

“Given that, I think it was naive to try and sell the government at all at the Department of Defense at all.”

“Tesla trades at a trillion today. I think if Elon died tomorrow, they traded two hundred billion. OpenAI trades at eight hundred billion today. I think if Sam Altman died tomorrow morning, we traded six hundred billion.”

“It's the venture capital equivalent of you can't get fired for buying IBM. Right? You can't get fired for sticking money in with a one X preference on the consensus winner. This is classic top of the bubble stuff.”

“I mean, you know, people talk about AI displacement of white collar workers. I think it's a bullshit discussion. AI displacement of blue collar drivers is coming at us in real time. This is the biggest isn't the four or five million drivers in the US. This is …”