The Ledger, every show

“I think there is a whole swath of the industry that is going, it's like a slow motion train wreck. They are not going to be able to raise new funds.”

“You know, their mark to market now, the next couple of years is going to be horrific. They're going to see huge markdowns on a huge swath of their companies, a bunch of stuff that they had counted on to go public isn't going to go public.”

“And the more that, you know, Illinois jacks up rates, In state, A, those, the regulated sports, the sports books that are subject to these rates reduce investment in the state, handle those down, tax revenue goes down, and those customers that are now getting …”

“It's going to be just like hedge funds. You know, look at Sequoia. The best firms charge premium fees and will be able to get it because on an after fee basis, they still outperform.”

“If there's no going back because there are now these much larger firms that are institutionally investable that can take sovereign money and, you know, massive family office money in that trend, that wave is just going to continue.”

“So what I would expect is a normalization that would look a lot like the hedge fund industry where smaller Longer dated, higher returns, differentiated managers will still command premium fees, and then more mature strategies, late-stage growth, pre-IPO, massi…”

“The greatest disruption in a way is going to be in the mid and late stage venture scene where managers are going to want to and need to gather enormous amounts of assets.”

“I think probably the greatest source of liquidity now is going to be continuation files, and it's going to be existing portfolios, raising money from net new investors, yet it reflects today's valuations, and you basically get fresh capital to join the partner…”

“No. Because of something we talked about earlier, which is with this tremendous influx of institutional capital and with pro teams, pretty soon the NFL, I would guess, becoming PE investable, return expectations are going to come down and prices are going to g…”

“When the fear really hits, the really smart seed stage investors are going to go in hard. Because that's when you get the best opportunities. You get great founders, and you get great businesses at prices that are a half. Of what companies were getting, you kn…”

“If you're a series B company and you're not growing a hundred percent year on year, are new investors going to be throwing term sheets at you in this environment? I don't think so. Certainly not at the prices that those founders would want.”

“I'm not sure the FTC is going to let those deals happen. So that adds a curveball in M&A that we have not had easily in a generation, which is this very, very restrictive regulatory environment where a bunch of the logical buyers, the FAANGs, for instance, are…”

“And maybe what that speaks to, Harry, is a further rise of firms like Vista and Insight. So you have tech PE start to step into the shoes of M&A. The issue there, though, is they don't pay as much. Somebody like Vista, you know, they have accumulated a bunch o…”

“Our adaptation of that is, you know, we're a very small firm taking an artisanal approach to venture investing where, you know, Brad, Jesse, and I, we have no junior people. We each do our own work. That by going deep in two to three companies a year each over…”

“I think it really is, is going to, that the industry is going to look like a barbell, and I've long thought you'll kind of have firms that are really focused on helping build companies at the seed stage and proving out their businesses, and then you'll have la…”

“I mean, I think there's going to be a real shakeout because I think that there are relatively few growth funds that are going to be able to hit the return objectives to kind of justify LP investment.”

“Essentially it's an asset purchase. And I think that's something we'll continue to see more and more of”

“I'm following a similar playbook of three to five companies out of the 20 to 25 companies constituting 75% of the capital. Deployed.”

“Venture is never going to be commoditized. Maybe mid and late stage will feel more like institutional asset management, but I think incubation, pre-seed, and seed will always occupy a different place.”

“Yes, certainly with a different head of the FTC, it's, I mean, the pendulum has swung all the way in the other direction. I think you could argue that antitrust was extremely weak for a generation, and now it's swung all the way in the other direction, so I wo…”

“Some of our best companies have actually raised kind of extension rounds. The Trade Desk, you know, which is now, you know, trading at well over a billion dollars, they needed a few extensions before they were able to kind of raise their Series A.”

“There are a lot of places that unless you can give them an appliance, or you can load it on their servers inside their firewall, they're not going to buy it. They are not going to put their data in the cloud.”

“So, but it very easily could see him back in the news with an incremental twenty billion. He could lever this. He could take twenty-five billion against the arm position easily.”

“I mean, sovereigns were not major players in the last cycle of VC and now sovereigns are everywhere.”

“Honestly, that's what Insight's done. That's what NEA's done.”

“And you know, who's done that? Really well is USB. Fred, very selectively. And they've obviously had big IPO winners, and they've had some IPO winners where they've sold some in advance.”

“I think we'll see some green shoots in 25, but probably 26 is when it's really going to come back.”

“I think the difference between this and say, 87 and 97 with LTCM is that this is not a shock. This is not an episodic jolt. This is much more akin to O-one, when you had valuations getting stretched to the point of just lacking reason, and partly it was a func…”

“Again, I'm very well-known for saying that, you know, markets in general, they tend to look like barbells, especially in stress. And I think this time is no different is that the super high quality teams and businesses will continue to be able to raise on very…”

“You know, I think what we're also going to see is investment time horizons. I'm going to leave crypto and web three aside because that occupies its own unique space, but just Kind of like non-crypto, non-web three venture. I think you're going to see deploymen…”

“If you're talking about seed, I think that 12 to 18 month time horizons will be extended.”

“So I think you're going to see a lot more companies that were on the 22 and 23 calendar pushed back a public listing.”

“Both traditional data and alternative data were able to create their own credit curves and stress test them such that they could raise a hundred million dollars of financing from a large hedge fund and a bank as a senior lender based upon their proprietary dat…”

“With Dodd-Frank, this big underserved piece of the market where there's money for super prime and there's money for deep subprime, but everything in between has largely been vacated by the banks and the finance companies.”

“Even three years ago it was much, much harder to sell to the enterprise because it had to be right. It had to be full production ready. It really couldn't be In beta, because the stakes were so high. Now, I think a lot of companies have environments that are j…”

“Wise did this brilliantly actually, you know, they made money, right? Like they generated actual money way in advance of going public. So they held these kind of annual employee tenders where we basically cleaned up the cap table.”